Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $235.88 |
| 5Y Range | 112.91 – 193.05 |
| 5Y Selected | 152.98 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.05% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $33.58 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -85.76% |
| 10Y Range | 129.29 – 210.91 |
| 10Y Selected | 170.10 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.05% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $37.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.17% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6991 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.4274 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.4401 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0255 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5827 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7748 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0560 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.6181 |
| Safety Score | 0.2195 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 6.47% | 6.20% | 5.92% | 5.65% | 5.37% | 5.10% | 4.82% | 4.55% | 4.27% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 25,819.89 | 27,420.44 | 29,044.84 | 30,685.63 | 32,334.77 | 33,983.67 | 35,623.24 | 37,244.00 | 38,836.13 | 40,389.58 |
| EBITDA | 12,538.46 | 13,315.70 | 14,104.53 | 14,901.32 | 15,702.17 | 16,502.89 | 17,299.09 | 18,086.15 | 18,859.31 | 19,613.68 |
| D&A | -2,550.66 | -2,708.77 | -2,869.24 | -3,031.33 | -3,194.24 | -3,357.13 | -3,519.10 | -3,679.21 | -3,836.49 | -3,989.95 |
| EBIT | 9,987.80 | 10,606.93 | 11,235.29 | 11,869.99 | 12,507.92 | 13,145.76 | 13,779.99 | 14,406.94 | 15,022.81 | 15,623.73 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,957.30 | -2,078.64 | -2,201.78 | -2,326.16 | -2,451.17 | -2,576.17 | -2,700.46 | -2,823.32 | -2,944.01 | -3,061.78 |
| NOPAT | 8,030.49 | 8,528.29 | 9,033.51 | 9,543.83 | 10,056.75 | 10,569.59 | 11,079.53 | 11,583.61 | 12,078.80 | 12,561.95 |
| Capital Expenditures | -4,050.34 | -4,301.42 | -4,556.24 | -4,813.63 | -5,072.33 | -5,330.99 | -5,588.19 | -5,842.44 | -6,092.19 | -6,335.88 |
| NWC Investment | 50.32 | 51.30 | 52.07 | 52.59 | 52.86 | 52.85 | 52.55 | 51.95 | 51.03 | 49.79 |
| (+) D&A | 2,550.66 | 2,708.77 | 2,869.24 | 3,031.33 | 3,194.24 | 3,357.13 | 3,519.10 | 3,679.21 | 3,836.49 | 3,989.95 |
| Free Cash Flow | 6,581.13 | 6,986.95 | 7,398.58 | 7,814.13 | 8,231.52 | 8,648.58 | 9,062.99 | 9,472.34 | 9,874.13 | 10,265.81 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 599,625,000.00 | 599,625,000.00 | 599,625,000.00 | 599,625,000.00 | 599,625,000.00 | 599,625,000.00 | 599,625,000.00 | 599,625,000.00 | 599,625,000.00 | 599,625,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 6,524.07 | 6,712.62 | 6,515.32 | 6,307.41 | 6,090.24 | 5,865.19 | 5,633.68 | 5,397.10 | 5,156.86 | 4,914.32 | Raw: 122,216.41 86,571.52 |
Raw: 152,420.27 69,856.10 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 118,721.18 | 128,972.91 |
| (-) Net Debt | 32,219.00 | 32,219.00 |
| Equity Value | 86,502.18 | 96,753.91 |
| (/) Shares Out | 599.63 | 599.63 |
| Fair Value | $144.26 | $161.36 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.05% | 78.05% |
| Buy Price | $31.67 | $35.42 |
| Current Price | $235.88 | $235.88 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.58% | -84.98% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 6,518.12 | 6,684.50 | 6,429.11 | 6,167.41 | 5,900.97 | 5,631.30 | 5,359.89 | 5,088.18 | 4,817.53 | 4,549.25 | Raw: 99,860.30 68,225.44 |
Raw: 124,539.20 52,597.17 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 99,925.55 | 109,743.42 |
| (-) Net Debt | 32,219.00 | 32,219.00 |
| Equity Value | 67,706.55 | 77,524.42 |
| (/) Shares Out | 599.63 | 599.63 |
| Fair Value | $112.91 | $129.29 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.05% | 78.05% |
| Buy Price | $24.78 | $28.38 |
| Current Price | $235.88 | $235.88 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -89.49% | -87.97% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 6,530.08 | 6,741.11 | 6,603.51 | 6,451.92 | 6,287.40 | 6,111.08 | 5,924.17 | 5,727.90 | 5,523.56 | 5,312.46 | Raw: 157,028.81 115,361.64 |
Raw: 195,836.00 97,473.44 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 147,975.66 | 158,686.63 |
| (-) Net Debt | 32,219.00 | 32,219.00 |
| Equity Value | 115,756.66 | 126,467.63 |
| (/) Shares Out | 599.63 | 599.63 |
| Fair Value | $193.05 | $210.91 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.05% | 78.05% |
| Buy Price | $42.37 | $46.30 |
| Current Price | $235.88 | $235.88 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.04% | -80.37% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 61,982.25 | 156,514.25 | 395,221.41 | 997,991.95 | 2,520,075.86 | 6,363,560.69 | 16,068,922.90 | 40,576,384.16 | 102,461,313.81 | 258,729,826.36 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 152.51% | 152.51% | 152.51% | 152.51% | 152.51% | 152.51% | 152.51% | 152.51% | 152.51% | 152.51% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 6.20 | 15.65 | 39.52 | 99.80 | 252.01 | 636.36 | 1,606.89 | 4,057.64 | 10,246.13 | 25,872.98 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 5.77 | 12.63 | 29.24 | 67.68 | 156.65 | 362.58 | 839.22 | 1,942.42 | 4,495.86 | 10,405.98 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $180.79 | 8.21% | $119.96 | -33.65% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $138.23 | 8.24% | $122.00 | -11.74% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $134.10 | 6.23% | $78.55 | -41.42% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $103.68 | 3.99% | $70.05 | -32.44% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $78.20 | 5.19% | $43.90 | -43.86% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $119.13 | 6.45% | $56.49 | -52.58% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $84.00 | 3.12% | $53.17 | -36.71% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $62.86 | 1.21% | $32.26 | -48.68% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $52.97 | 2.20% | $36.67 | -30.77% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $46.33 | 6.37% | $24.14 | -47.89% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $31.95 | 10.66% | $65.32 | 104.45% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $23.90 | 13.06% | $15.62 | -34.63% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $31.41 | 8.16% | $-3.18 | -110.11% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $23.01 | 5.15% | $-3.74 | -116.26% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $20.13 | 2.43% | $0.46 | -97.69% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $16.81 | 3.71% | $-0.74 | -104.38% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $17.37 | 9.74% | $7.72 | -55.58% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $14.97 | 8.02% | $0.39 | -97.42% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $14.25 | 4.36% | $-0.32 | -102.27% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $12.69 | 0.81% | $-5.59 | -144.09% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $10.92 | -1.05% | $-8.07 | -173.92% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $11.27 | 0.14% | $-32.45 | -387.89% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $15.66 | 3.43% | $-17.49 | -211.69% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $15.03 | 2.53% | $-3.28 | -121.81% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $11.09 | 3.59% | $1.03 | -90.75% |
| $98.48 - $111.04 | 14 |
| $111.04 - $123.60 | 35 |
| $123.60 - $136.16 | 116 |
| $136.16 - $148.73 | 157 |
| $148.73 - $161.29 | 170 |
| $161.29 - $173.85 | 169 |
| $173.85 - $186.41 | 119 |
| $186.41 - $198.98 | 67 |
| $198.98 - $211.54 | 67 |
| $211.54 - $224.10 | 23 |
| $224.10 - $236.66 | 20 |
| $236.66 - $249.23 | 9 |
| $249.23 - $261.79 | 10 |
| $261.79 - $274.35 | 8 |
| $274.35 - $286.91 | 5 |
| $286.91 - $299.47 | 4 |
| $299.47 - $312.04 | 2 |
| $312.04 - $324.60 | 2 |
| $324.60 - $337.16 | 1 |
| $337.16 - $349.72 | 2 |