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Ubiquiti Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$558.39
5Y Range206.65 – 317.49
5Y Selected262.07
(-) Safety Margin71.21%
5Y Buy Price$75.45
Upside (to Buy Price)-86.49%
10Y Range239.01 – 360.35
10Y Selected299.68
(-) Safety Margin71.21%
10Y Buy Price$86.28
Upside (to Buy Price)-84.55%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.5692
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9303
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0252
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.5324
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0572
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6724
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0135
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1392
Safety Score0.2879

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035
% Growth11.48%10.65%9.82%8.99%8.16%7.32%6.49%5.66%4.83%4.00%
Revenue2,868.973,174.473,486.123,799.394,109.244,410.204,696.564,962.495,202.235,410.32
EBITDA988.241,093.471,200.821,308.731,415.461,519.131,617.771,709.371,791.951,863.62
D&A-22.80-25.23-27.71-30.20-32.66-35.06-37.33-39.45-41.35-43.01
EBIT965.431,068.241,173.111,278.531,382.791,484.071,580.441,669.921,750.601,820.62
Pro forma Taxes-153.23-169.55-186.19-202.93-219.47-235.55-250.84-265.05-277.85-288.96
NOPAT812.20898.69986.921,075.601,163.321,248.521,329.591,404.881,472.751,531.65
Capital Expenditures-26.76-29.61-32.52-35.44-38.33-41.14-43.81-46.29-48.53-50.47
NWC Investment-62.16-64.28-65.58-65.92-65.20-63.33-60.26-55.96-50.45-43.79
(+) D&A22.8025.2327.7130.2032.6635.0637.3339.4541.3543.01
Free Cash Flow746.08830.02916.531,004.441,092.451,179.111,262.851,342.071,415.121,480.40
Diluted Shares Outstanding60,544,000.0060,544,000.0060,544,000.0060,544,000.0060,544,000.0060,544,000.0060,544,000.0060,544,000.0060,544,000.0060,544,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricJun-26Jun-27Jun-28Jun-29Jun-30Jun-31Jun-32Jun-33Jun-34Jun-35
Period Start9/30/257/1/267/1/277/1/287/1/297/1/307/1/317/1/327/1/337/1/34
Period End6/30/266/30/276/30/286/30/296/30/306/30/316/30/326/30/336/30/346/30/35
Mid-Point2/13/2612/30/2612/30/2712/30/2812/30/2912/30/3012/30/3112/30/3212/30/3312/30/34
Time (t)0.100.951.952.953.954.955.956.967.968.96
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.47%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.920.840.770.710.650.600.550.500.46
PV UFCF739.61764.13773.40776.90774.51766.23752.22732.10707.57678.49
Raw: 16,876.32
11,454.94
Raw: 22,869.44
10,034.80

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value15,283.4817,499.95
(-) Net Debt174.90174.90
Equity Value15,108.5817,325.05
(/) Shares Out60.5460.54
Fair Value$249.55$286.16
(-) Safety Margin71.21%71.21%
Buy Price$71.84$82.38
Current Price$558.39$558.39
Upside (to Buy Price)-87.13%-85.25%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.97%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.910.830.750.680.620.560.510.460.42
PV UFCF738.94757.53759.76756.27747.09732.39712.47687.05658.00625.22
Raw: 13,696.53
8,926.73
Raw: 18,560.45
7,470.59

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value12,686.3114,645.32
(-) Net Debt174.90174.90
Equity Value12,511.4114,470.42
(/) Shares Out60.5460.54
Fair Value$206.65$239.01
(-) Safety Margin71.21%71.21%
Buy Price$59.49$68.81
Current Price$558.39$558.39
Upside (to Buy Price)-89.35%-87.68%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.97%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.930.860.790.740.680.630.580.540.50
PV UFCF740.29770.84787.41798.29803.20801.97794.58780.56761.39736.84
Raw: 21,914.59
15,496.90
Raw: 29,696.90
14,216.61

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value19,396.9321,991.97
(-) Net Debt174.90174.90
Equity Value19,222.0321,817.07
(/) Shares Out60.5460.54
Fair Value$317.49$360.35
(-) Safety Margin71.21%71.21%
Buy Price$91.40$103.74
Current Price$558.39$558.39
Upside (to Buy Price)-83.63%-81.42%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$558.39
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH165.84%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue7,329.2719,484.4851,798.46137,703.47366,077.40973,197.472,587,194.146,877,919.1918,284,585.4748,608,606.26
Constant Implied Growth165.84%165.84%165.84%165.84%165.84%165.84%165.84%165.84%165.84%165.84%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.731.955.1813.7736.6197.32258.72687.791,828.464,860.86
Discount Factor0.950.840.770.710.650.600.550.500.460.42
Present Value of Implied FCF0.701.644.019.7623.7957.97141.13343.90838.012,042.01

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20202020-06-30$174.568.41%$133.87-23.31%
20192019-06-30$131.0410.34%$78.29-40.26%
20182018-06-30$84.7216.95%$130.4453.97%
20172017-06-30$51.9720.83%$50.08-3.64%
20162016-06-30$38.6624.85%$98.14153.86%
20152015-06-30$31.9222.48%$56.4976.96%
20142014-06-30$45.1922.64%$54.1519.82%
20132013-06-30$17.4318.56%$48.45177.98%
20122012-06-30$14.2523.37%$38.01166.71%
20112011-06-30$17.5018.68%$33.8093.17%
20102010-06-30$17.5019.59%$-13.95-179.70%
20092009-06-30$17.5023.29%$4.58-73.85%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$294.48
Median
$285.31
10th Percentile
$234.57
90th Percentile
$363.62

Fair Value Distribution

$194.49 - $215.26
19
$215.26 - $236.04
94
$236.04 - $256.81
137
$256.81 - $277.58
182
$277.58 - $298.36
177
$298.36 - $319.13
126
$319.13 - $339.91
102
$339.91 - $360.68
52
$360.68 - $381.45
45
$381.45 - $402.23
27
$402.23 - $423.00
15
$423.00 - $443.78
9
$443.78 - $464.55
4
$464.55 - $485.32
3
$485.32 - $506.10
2
$506.10 - $526.87
1
$526.87 - $547.64
1
$547.64 - $568.42
2
$568.42 - $589.19
1
$589.19 - $609.97
1