| Current Price | $222.64 |
| 5Y Range | 1,332.13 – 2,061.89 |
| 5Y Selected | 1,697.01 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.83% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $342.29 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 53.74% |
| 10Y Range | 1,532.98 – 2,318.14 |
| 10Y Selected | 1,925.56 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.83% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $388.39 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 74.45% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9832 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9625 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0099 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2978 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1303 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3084 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0151 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1254 |
| Safety Score | 0.2017 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 12.12% | 11.22% | 10.32% | 9.41% | 8.51% | 7.61% | 6.71% | 5.80% | 4.90% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 17,746.26 | 19,736.98 | 21,772.94 | 23,822.48 | 25,850.02 | 27,816.90 | 29,682.48 | 31,405.37 | 32,944.93 | 34,262.72 |
| EBITDA | 8,560.85 | 9,521.18 | 10,503.33 | 11,492.04 | 12,470.13 | 13,418.96 | 14,318.92 | 15,150.05 | 15,892.73 | 16,528.44 |
| D&A | -742.90 | -826.24 | -911.47 | -997.27 | -1,082.15 | -1,164.49 | -1,242.59 | -1,314.71 | -1,379.16 | -1,434.33 |
| EBIT | 7,817.95 | 8,694.94 | 9,591.86 | 10,494.76 | 11,387.98 | 12,254.47 | 13,076.33 | 13,835.34 | 14,513.57 | 15,094.12 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -2,068.91 | -2,301.00 | -2,538.36 | -2,777.30 | -3,013.68 | -3,242.98 | -3,460.48 | -3,661.34 | -3,840.82 | -3,994.46 |
| NOPAT | 5,749.03 | 6,393.94 | 7,053.50 | 7,717.47 | 8,374.30 | 9,011.49 | 9,615.86 | 10,174.00 | 10,672.75 | 11,099.66 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,216.59 | -1,353.07 | -1,492.64 | -1,633.15 | -1,772.15 | -1,906.99 | -2,034.88 | -2,152.99 | -2,258.54 | -2,348.88 |
| NWC Investment | -72.74 | -75.48 | -77.20 | -77.71 | -76.88 | -74.58 | -70.74 | -65.33 | -58.38 | -49.97 |
| (+) D&A | 742.90 | 826.24 | 911.47 | 997.27 | 1,082.15 | 1,164.49 | 1,242.59 | 1,314.71 | 1,379.16 | 1,434.33 |
| Free Cash Flow | 5,202.61 | 5,791.63 | 6,395.13 | 7,003.88 | 7,607.43 | 8,194.41 | 8,752.83 | 9,270.39 | 9,735.00 | 10,135.14 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 65,773,250.00 | 65,773,250.00 | 65,773,250.00 | 65,773,250.00 | 65,773,250.00 | 65,773,250.00 | 65,773,250.00 | 65,773,250.00 | 65,773,250.00 | 65,773,250.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 5,157.50 | 5,564.23 | 5,631.67 | 5,653.39 | 5,628.49 | 5,557.19 | 5,440.87 | 5,282.04 | 5,084.20 | 4,851.77 | Raw: 117,825.02 83,460.89 |
Raw: 156,974.66 71,943.43 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 111,096.18 | 125,794.77 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,916.31 | 4,916.31 |
| Equity Value | 106,179.86 | 120,878.46 |
| (/) Shares Out | 65.77 | 65.77 |
| Fair Value | $1,614.33 | $1,837.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.83% | 79.83% |
| Buy Price | $325.61 | $370.69 |
| Current Price | $222.64 | $222.64 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 46.25% | 66.50% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 5,152.80 | 5,540.93 | 5,557.15 | 5,527.91 | 5,453.57 | 5,335.58 | 5,176.46 | 4,979.70 | 4,749.65 | 4,491.34 | Raw: 95,581.97 65,302.45 |
Raw: 127,340.93 53,780.44 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 92,534.80 | 105,745.51 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,916.31 | 4,916.31 |
| Equity Value | 87,618.48 | 100,829.20 |
| (/) Shares Out | 65.77 | 65.77 |
| Fair Value | $1,332.13 | $1,532.98 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.83% | 79.83% |
| Buy Price | $268.69 | $309.20 |
| Current Price | $222.64 | $222.64 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 20.68% | 38.88% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 5,162.25 | 5,587.85 | 5,707.89 | 5,782.92 | 5,810.70 | 5,790.17 | 5,721.42 | 5,605.78 | 5,445.73 | 5,244.84 | Raw: 153,109.38 112,482.21 |
Raw: 203,982.93 101,528.41 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 140,533.83 | 157,387.97 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,916.31 | 4,916.31 |
| Equity Value | 135,617.52 | 152,471.66 |
| (/) Shares Out | 65.77 | 65.77 |
| Fair Value | $2,061.89 | $2,318.14 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.83% | 79.83% |
| Buy Price | $415.88 | $467.57 |
| Current Price | $222.64 | $222.64 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 86.80% | 110.01% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 35,721.18 | 75,092.09 | 157,856.56 | 331,841.77 | 697,588.75 | 1,466,452.14 | 3,082,735.88 | 6,480,443.67 | 13,623,012.75 | 28,637,927.57 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 110.22% | 110.22% | 110.22% | 110.22% | 110.22% | 110.22% | 110.22% | 110.22% | 110.22% | 110.22% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 3.57 | 7.51 | 15.79 | 33.18 | 69.76 | 146.65 | 308.27 | 648.04 | 1,362.30 | 2,863.79 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 3.32 | 6.06 | 11.68 | 22.50 | 43.36 | 83.55 | 161.00 | 310.22 | 597.76 | 1,151.80 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $143.46 | 14.16% | $191.22 | 33.29% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $116.56 | 12.48% | $103.44 | -11.26% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $113.35 | 11.02% | $102.95 | -9.18% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $106.38 | 8.47% | $-12.49 | -111.74% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $119.49 | 7.68% | $-11.20 | -109.38% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $111.26 | 8.13% | $13.29 | -88.06% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $81.26 | 8.67% | $80.88 | -0.47% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $48.35 | 9.71% | $-56.15 | -216.14% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $38.86 | 8.78% | $51.93 | 33.62% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $43.42 | 4.68% | $9.84 | -77.34% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $30.50 | 6.61% | $21.77 | -28.62% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $18.79 | 8.91% | $13.87 | -26.20% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $25.60 | 11.14% | $-7.36 | -128.73% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $27.71 | 12.49% | $-47.73 | -272.26% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $23.37 | 9.86% | $32.28 | 38.13% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $22.25 | 10.73% | $26.24 | 17.92% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $26.86 | 9.77% | $22.15 | -17.55% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $22.55 | 8.72% | $18.28 | -18.93% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $21.39 | 8.31% | $22.81 | 6.65% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $27.94 | 10.23% | $8.81 | -68.47% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $9.00 | 14.66% | $13.67 | 51.92% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $12.97 | 16.42% | $-34.23 | -363.89% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $12.59 | 16.54% | $-3.82 | -130.37% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $7.16 | 17.66% | $-36.15 | -604.87% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $5.55 | 16.37% | $-44.80 | -907.17% |
| $1,204.92 - $1,335.91 | 9 |
| $1,335.91 - $1,466.90 | 48 |
| $1,466.90 - $1,597.90 | 115 |
| $1,597.90 - $1,728.89 | 152 |
| $1,728.89 - $1,859.88 | 190 |
| $1,859.88 - $1,990.88 | 148 |
| $1,990.88 - $2,121.87 | 137 |
| $2,121.87 - $2,252.86 | 77 |
| $2,252.86 - $2,383.86 | 64 |
| $2,383.86 - $2,514.85 | 25 |
| $2,514.85 - $2,645.84 | 12 |
| $2,645.84 - $2,776.84 | 7 |
| $2,776.84 - $2,907.83 | 7 |
| $2,907.83 - $3,038.82 | 3 |
| $3,038.82 - $3,169.82 | 0 |
| $3,169.82 - $3,300.81 | 0 |
| $3,300.81 - $3,431.80 | 3 |
| $3,431.80 - $3,562.80 | 1 |
| $3,562.80 - $3,693.79 | 0 |
| $3,693.79 - $3,824.78 | 2 |