Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis
Financial Statements
Periods / Units
Fundamentals
Valuations
Miscellaneous
Analysis Mode
Full Access
See Pricing Start Trial

Universal Health Services, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$222.64
5Y Range1,332.13 – 2,061.89
5Y Selected1,697.01
(-) Safety Margin79.83%
5Y Buy Price$342.29
Upside (to Buy Price)53.74%
10Y Range1,532.98 – 2,318.14
10Y Selected1,925.56
(-) Safety Margin79.83%
10Y Buy Price$388.39
Upside (to Buy Price)74.45%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9832
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9625
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0099
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.2978
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.1303
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.3084
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0151
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1254
Safety Score0.2017

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth12.12%11.22%10.32%9.41%8.51%7.61%6.71%5.80%4.90%4.00%
Revenue17,746.2619,736.9821,772.9423,822.4825,850.0227,816.9029,682.4831,405.3732,944.9334,262.72
EBITDA8,560.859,521.1810,503.3311,492.0412,470.1313,418.9614,318.9215,150.0515,892.7316,528.44
D&A-742.90-826.24-911.47-997.27-1,082.15-1,164.49-1,242.59-1,314.71-1,379.16-1,434.33
EBIT7,817.958,694.949,591.8610,494.7611,387.9812,254.4713,076.3313,835.3414,513.5715,094.12
Pro forma Taxes-2,068.91-2,301.00-2,538.36-2,777.30-3,013.68-3,242.98-3,460.48-3,661.34-3,840.82-3,994.46
NOPAT5,749.036,393.947,053.507,717.478,374.309,011.499,615.8610,174.0010,672.7511,099.66
Capital Expenditures-1,216.59-1,353.07-1,492.64-1,633.15-1,772.15-1,906.99-2,034.88-2,152.99-2,258.54-2,348.88
NWC Investment-72.74-75.48-77.20-77.71-76.88-74.58-70.74-65.33-58.38-49.97
(+) D&A742.90826.24911.47997.271,082.151,164.491,242.591,314.711,379.161,434.33
Free Cash Flow5,202.615,791.636,395.137,003.887,607.438,194.418,752.839,270.399,735.0010,135.14
Diluted Shares Outstanding65,773,250.0065,773,250.0065,773,250.0065,773,250.0065,773,250.0065,773,250.0065,773,250.0065,773,250.0065,773,250.0065,773,250.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.48%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF5,157.505,564.235,631.675,653.395,628.495,557.195,440.875,282.045,084.204,851.77
Raw: 117,825.02
83,460.89
Raw: 156,974.66
71,943.43

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value111,096.18125,794.77
(-) Net Debt4,916.314,916.31
Equity Value106,179.86120,878.46
(/) Shares Out65.7765.77
Fair Value$1,614.33$1,837.81
(-) Safety Margin79.83%79.83%
Buy Price$325.61$370.69
Current Price$222.64$222.64
Upside (to Buy Price)46.25%66.50%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.98%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF5,152.805,540.935,557.155,527.915,453.575,335.585,176.464,979.704,749.654,491.34
Raw: 95,581.97
65,302.45
Raw: 127,340.93
53,780.44

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value92,534.80105,745.51
(-) Net Debt4,916.314,916.31
Equity Value87,618.48100,829.20
(/) Shares Out65.7765.77
Fair Value$1,332.13$1,532.98
(-) Safety Margin79.83%79.83%
Buy Price$268.69$309.20
Current Price$222.64$222.64
Upside (to Buy Price)20.68%38.88%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.98%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF5,162.255,587.855,707.895,782.925,810.705,790.175,721.425,605.785,445.735,244.84
Raw: 153,109.38
112,482.21
Raw: 203,982.93
101,528.41

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value140,533.83157,387.97
(-) Net Debt4,916.314,916.31
Equity Value135,617.52152,471.66
(/) Shares Out65.7765.77
Fair Value$2,061.89$2,318.14
(-) Safety Margin79.83%79.83%
Buy Price$415.88$467.57
Current Price$222.64$222.64
Upside (to Buy Price)86.80%110.01%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$222.64
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH110.22%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue35,721.1875,092.09157,856.56331,841.77697,588.751,466,452.143,082,735.886,480,443.6713,623,012.7528,637,927.57
Constant Implied Growth110.22%110.22%110.22%110.22%110.22%110.22%110.22%110.22%110.22%110.22%
Implied Free Cash Flow3.577.5115.7933.1869.76146.65308.27648.041,362.302,863.79
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF3.326.0611.6822.5043.3683.55161.00310.22597.761,151.80

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$143.4614.16%$191.2233.29%
20182018-12-31$116.5612.48%$103.44-11.26%
20172017-12-31$113.3511.02%$102.95-9.18%
20162016-12-31$106.388.47%$-12.49-111.74%
20152015-12-31$119.497.68%$-11.20-109.38%
20142014-12-31$111.268.13%$13.29-88.06%
20132013-12-31$81.268.67%$80.88-0.47%
20122012-12-31$48.359.71%$-56.15-216.14%
20112011-12-31$38.868.78%$51.9333.62%
20102010-12-31$43.424.68%$9.84-77.34%
20092009-12-31$30.506.61%$21.77-28.62%
20082008-12-31$18.798.91%$13.87-26.20%
20072007-12-31$25.6011.14%$-7.36-128.73%
20062006-12-31$27.7112.49%$-47.73-272.26%
20052005-12-31$23.379.86%$32.2838.13%
20042004-12-31$22.2510.73%$26.2417.92%
20032003-12-31$26.869.77%$22.15-17.55%
20022002-12-31$22.558.72%$18.28-18.93%
20012001-12-31$21.398.31%$22.816.65%
20002000-12-31$27.9410.23%$8.81-68.47%
19991999-12-31$9.0014.66%$13.6751.92%
19981998-12-31$12.9716.42%$-34.23-363.89%
19971997-12-31$12.5916.54%$-3.82-130.37%
19961996-12-31$7.1617.66%$-36.15-604.87%
19951995-12-31$5.5516.37%$-44.80-907.17%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$1,892.75
Median
$1,851.49
10th Percentile
$1,529.32
90th Percentile
$2,294.35

Fair Value Distribution

$1,204.92 - $1,335.91
9
$1,335.91 - $1,466.90
48
$1,466.90 - $1,597.90
115
$1,597.90 - $1,728.89
152
$1,728.89 - $1,859.88
190
$1,859.88 - $1,990.88
148
$1,990.88 - $2,121.87
137
$2,121.87 - $2,252.86
77
$2,252.86 - $2,383.86
64
$2,383.86 - $2,514.85
25
$2,514.85 - $2,645.84
12
$2,645.84 - $2,776.84
7
$2,776.84 - $2,907.83
7
$2,907.83 - $3,038.82
3
$3,038.82 - $3,169.82
0
$3,169.82 - $3,300.81
0
$3,300.81 - $3,431.80
3
$3,431.80 - $3,562.80
1
$3,562.80 - $3,693.79
0
$3,693.79 - $3,824.78
2