Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $52.38 |
| 5Y Range | -28.77 – -26.92 |
| 5Y Selected | -27.85 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.88% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $-6.16 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -111.76% |
| 10Y Range | -28.35 – -26.38 |
| 10Y Selected | -27.36 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.88% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $-6.05 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -111.56% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.4917 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8972 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.3186 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0427 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0044 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.5624 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.9838 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3570 |
| Safety Score | 0.2212 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -36.42% | -31.93% | -27.44% | -22.95% | -18.46% | -13.96% | -9.47% | -4.98% | -0.49% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 3,705.89 | 2,522.66 | 1,830.50 | 1,410.47 | 1,150.16 | 989.55 | 895.81 | 851.18 | 847.00 | 880.88 |
| EBITDA | 2,406.55 | 1,638.17 | 1,188.70 | 915.94 | 746.90 | 642.60 | 581.73 | 552.74 | 550.03 | 572.03 |
| D&A | -535.45 | -364.49 | -264.48 | -203.79 | -166.18 | -142.98 | -129.43 | -122.98 | -122.38 | -127.28 |
| EBIT | 1,871.10 | 1,273.68 | 924.22 | 712.14 | 580.71 | 499.62 | 452.29 | 429.76 | 427.65 | 444.75 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -377.74 | -257.13 | -186.58 | -143.77 | -117.24 | -100.87 | -91.31 | -86.76 | -86.33 | -89.79 |
| NOPAT | 1,493.35 | 1,016.55 | 737.63 | 568.37 | 463.48 | 398.76 | 360.98 | 343.00 | 341.31 | 354.97 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,722.70 | -1,172.67 | -850.92 | -655.66 | -534.66 | -460.00 | -416.42 | -395.67 | -393.73 | -409.48 |
| NWC Investment | -296.33 | -165.18 | -96.62 | -58.64 | -36.34 | -22.42 | -13.09 | -6.23 | -0.58 | 4.73 |
| (+) D&A | 535.45 | 364.49 | 264.48 | 203.79 | 166.18 | 142.98 | 129.43 | 122.98 | 122.38 | 127.28 |
| Free Cash Flow | 9.77 | 43.20 | 54.58 | 57.87 | 58.67 | 59.32 | 60.91 | 64.08 | 69.38 | 77.49 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 196,077,880.00 | 196,077,880.00 | 196,077,880.00 | 196,077,880.00 | 196,077,880.00 | 196,077,880.00 | 196,077,880.00 | 196,077,880.00 | 196,077,880.00 | 196,077,880.00 |
| Metric | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Period End | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 | 3/31/34 | 3/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/30/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.71 | 2.71 | 3.71 | 4.71 | 5.71 | 6.71 | 7.71 | 8.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 9.69 | 40.64 | 47.03 | 45.71 | 42.47 | 39.36 | 37.05 | 35.72 | 35.45 | 36.30 | Raw: 903.87 626.47 |
Raw: 1,193.91 535.40 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 812.00 | 904.81 |
| (-) Net Debt | 6,313.29 | 6,313.29 |
| Equity Value | -5,501.29 | -5,408.48 |
| (/) Shares Out | 196.08 | 196.08 |
| Fair Value | $-28.06 | $-27.58 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.88% | 77.88% |
| Buy Price | $-6.21 | $-6.10 |
| Current Price | $52.38 | $52.38 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -111.85% | -111.65% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.85 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.43 | ||
| PV UFCF | 9.68 | 40.38 | 46.30 | 44.59 | 41.06 | 37.70 | 35.17 | 33.60 | 33.05 | 33.52 | Raw: 733.90 489.49 |
Raw: 969.40 399.68 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 671.50 | 754.73 |
| (-) Net Debt | 6,313.29 | 6,313.29 |
| Equity Value | -5,641.79 | -5,558.57 |
| (/) Shares Out | 196.08 | 196.08 |
| Fair Value | $-28.77 | $-28.35 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.88% | 77.88% |
| Buy Price | $-6.36 | $-6.27 |
| Current Price | $52.38 | $52.38 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -112.15% | -111.97% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 9.70 | 40.90 | 47.77 | 46.86 | 43.95 | 41.10 | 39.05 | 38.00 | 38.06 | 39.33 | Raw: 1,172.86 845.03 |
Raw: 1,549.21 756.22 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,034.22 | 1,140.94 |
| (-) Net Debt | 6,313.29 | 6,313.29 |
| Equity Value | -5,279.08 | -5,172.35 |
| (/) Shares Out | 196.08 | 196.08 |
| Fair Value | $-26.92 | $-26.38 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.88% | 77.88% |
| Buy Price | $-5.96 | $-5.84 |
| Current Price | $52.38 | $52.38 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -111.37% | -111.14% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 13,642.17 | 31,161.17 | 71,177.70 | 162,582.66 | 371,368.02 | 848,271.29 | 1,937,604.05 | 4,425,835.81 | 10,109,404.26 | 23,091,695.86 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 128.42% | 128.42% | 128.42% | 128.42% | 128.42% | 128.42% | 128.42% | 128.42% | 128.42% | 128.42% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.36 | 3.12 | 7.12 | 16.26 | 37.14 | 84.83 | 193.76 | 442.58 | 1,010.94 | 2,309.17 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.31 | 2.69 | 5.62 | 11.77 | 24.64 | 51.59 | 108.02 | 226.17 | 473.52 | 991.41 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-03-31 | $29.06 | -64.29% | $-305.98 | -1,152.91% |
| 2019 | 2019-03-31 | $37.70 | -59.60% | $-237.35 | -729.56% |
| 2018 | 2018-03-31 | $34.51 | -33.56% | $-205.89 | -696.61% |
| 2017 | 2017-03-31 | $38.12 | 11.16% | $-625.39 | -1,740.57% |
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $35.73 | 6.63% | $-601.52 | -1,783.53% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $33.04 | 4.85% | $-387.28 | -1,272.17% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $23.21 | 5.02% | $-356.15 | -1,634.47% |
| 2013 | 2013-03-31 | $17.02 | 5.82% | $-55.87 | -428.28% |
| 2012 | 2012-03-31 | $10.55 | 7.17% | $20.50 | 94.36% |
| 2011 | 2011-03-31 | $9.70 | 6.99% | $44.22 | 355.83% |
| 2010 | 2010-03-31 | $5.43 | 7.24% | $92.17 | 1,597.48% |
| 2009 | 2009-03-31 | $3.35 | 8.52% | $-204.19 | -6,195.20% |
| 2008 | 2008-03-31 | $5.71 | 7.90% | $-400.30 | -7,110.49% |
| 2007 | 2007-03-31 | $7.00 | 6.43% | $-340.83 | -4,969.03% |
| 2006 | 2006-03-31 | $9.90 | 3.67% | $-105.10 | -1,161.61% |
| 2005 | 2005-03-31 | $4.63 | 0.30% | $-8.56 | -284.85% |
| 1999 | 1999-03-31 | $2.15 | 6.24% | $-17.54 | -915.64% |
| 1998 | 1998-03-31 | $3.08 | 10.05% | $-29.21 | -1,048.49% |
| 1997 | 1997-03-31 | $2.55 | 13.19% | $-5.42 | -312.49% |
| 1996 | 1996-03-31 | $2.42 | 13.57% | $-13.82 | -670.98% |
| $-29.02 - $-28.74 | 19 |
| $-28.74 - $-28.45 | 57 |
| $-28.45 - $-28.17 | 119 |
| $-28.17 - $-27.88 | 142 |
| $-27.88 - $-27.60 | 167 |
| $-27.60 - $-27.31 | 140 |
| $-27.31 - $-27.02 | 120 |
| $-27.02 - $-26.74 | 69 |
| $-26.74 - $-26.45 | 58 |
| $-26.45 - $-26.17 | 38 |
| $-26.17 - $-25.88 | 20 |
| $-25.88 - $-25.59 | 16 |
| $-25.59 - $-25.31 | 10 |
| $-25.31 - $-25.02 | 9 |
| $-25.02 - $-24.74 | 5 |
| $-24.74 - $-24.45 | 8 |
| $-24.45 - $-24.17 | 1 |
| $-24.17 - $-23.88 | 1 |
| $-23.88 - $-23.59 | 0 |
| $-23.59 - $-23.31 | 1 |