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Tradeweb Markets Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$103.83
5Y Range78.56 – 115.25
5Y Selected96.90
(-) Safety Margin22.38%
5Y Buy Price$75.22
Upside (to Buy Price)-27.56%
10Y Range86.57 – 124.60
10Y Selected105.59
(-) Safety Margin22.38%
10Y Buy Price$81.96
Upside (to Buy Price)-21.07%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9397
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9546
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.9729
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.8456
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.8993
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.9398
FCF R2 (5Y)0.9654
FCF R2 (10Y)0.9642
Safety Score0.7762

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth9.06%8.50%7.94%7.37%6.81%6.25%5.69%5.12%4.56%4.00%
Revenue1,882.312,042.262,204.322,366.842,528.052,686.022,838.762,984.233,120.373,245.19
EBITDA1,213.771,316.911,421.411,526.211,630.161,732.021,830.511,924.312,012.112,092.59
D&A-278.47-302.13-326.11-350.15-374.00-397.37-419.97-441.49-461.63-480.10
EBIT935.301,014.771,095.301,176.061,256.161,334.651,410.551,482.831,550.481,612.49
Pro forma Taxes-194.36-210.87-227.61-244.39-261.03-277.35-293.12-308.14-322.20-335.08
NOPAT740.94803.90867.69931.67995.121,057.301,117.431,174.691,228.281,277.41
Capital Expenditures-91.21-98.96-106.81-114.69-122.50-130.15-137.55-144.60-151.20-157.25
NWC Investment4.484.584.644.664.624.534.384.173.903.58
(+) D&A278.47302.13326.11350.15374.00397.37419.97441.49461.63480.10
Free Cash Flow932.681,011.661,091.631,171.791,251.241,329.051,404.221,475.741,542.611,603.84
Diluted Shares Outstanding214,943,858.00214,943,858.00214,943,858.00214,943,858.00214,943,858.00214,943,858.00214,943,858.00214,943,858.00214,943,858.00214,943,858.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.48%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF924.60971.94961.31945.85925.76901.32872.88840.84805.64767.77
Raw: 19,367.16
13,718.65
Raw: 24,824.69
11,377.46

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value18,448.1020,295.36
(-) Net Debt-1,487.96-1,487.96
Equity Value19,936.0621,783.32
(/) Shares Out214.94214.94
Fair Value$92.75$101.34
(-) Safety Margin22.38%22.38%
Buy Price$71.99$78.66
Current Price$103.83$103.83
Upside (to Buy Price)-30.66%-24.24%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.98%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF923.75967.87948.59924.85896.99865.38830.46792.71752.63710.73
Raw: 15,712.75
10,735.09
Raw: 20,140.49
8,506.02

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value15,397.1417,119.98
(-) Net Debt-1,487.96-1,487.96
Equity Value16,885.1018,607.94
(/) Shares Out214.94214.94
Fair Value$78.56$86.57
(-) Safety Margin22.38%22.38%
Buy Price$60.98$67.20
Current Price$103.83$103.83
Upside (to Buy Price)-41.27%-35.28%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.98%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF925.45976.06974.32967.52955.73939.11917.89892.38862.93829.97
Raw: 25,162.54
18,485.72
Raw: 32,253.15
16,053.36

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value23,284.8025,294.71
(-) Net Debt-1,487.96-1,487.96
Equity Value24,772.7626,782.67
(/) Shares Out214.94214.94
Fair Value$115.25$124.60
(-) Safety Margin22.38%22.38%
Buy Price$89.46$96.72
Current Price$103.83$103.83
Upside (to Buy Price)-13.84%-6.85%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$103.83
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH162.77%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue5,241.1613,772.1136,188.7795,092.71249,873.73656,589.591,725,310.974,533,574.7011,912,808.7131,303,115.27
Constant Implied Growth162.77%162.77%162.77%162.77%162.77%162.77%162.77%162.77%162.77%162.77%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.521.383.629.5124.9965.66172.53453.361,191.283,130.31
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.491.112.686.4515.5337.4190.11217.03522.721,258.99

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$46.3511.58%$47.332.12%
20182018-12-31$35.815.40%$39.6410.68%
20172017-12-31$35.811.83%$14.76-58.78%
20162016-12-31$35.8116.83%$19.60-45.26%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$103.13
Median
$100.29
10th Percentile
$85.83
90th Percentile
$124.55

Fair Value Distribution

$63.21 - $69.46
1
$69.46 - $75.71
8
$75.71 - $81.96
36
$81.96 - $88.22
103
$88.22 - $94.47
170
$94.47 - $100.72
193
$100.72 - $106.97
159
$106.97 - $113.23
113
$113.23 - $119.48
82
$119.48 - $125.73
39
$125.73 - $131.99
40
$131.99 - $138.24
19
$138.24 - $144.49
17
$144.49 - $150.74
8
$150.74 - $157.00
6
$157.00 - $163.25
2
$163.25 - $169.50
2
$169.50 - $175.76
0
$175.76 - $182.01
0
$182.01 - $188.26
2