Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $34.15 |
| 5Y Range | 57.82 – 90.37 |
| 5Y Selected | 74.10 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 39.94% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $44.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 30.32% |
| 10Y Range | 70.33 – 107.95 |
| 10Y Selected | 89.14 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 39.94% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $53.54 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 56.77% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8505 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6835 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1682 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8658 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5843 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8149 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.7827 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.9613 |
| Safety Score | 0.6006 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 17.77% | 16.24% | 14.71% | 13.18% | 11.65% | 10.12% | 8.59% | 7.06% | 5.53% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 6,409.64 | 7,450.46 | 8,546.32 | 9,672.63 | 10,799.39 | 11,892.20 | 12,913.67 | 13,825.33 | 14,589.84 | 15,173.43 |
| EBITDA | 1,228.44 | 1,427.92 | 1,637.94 | 1,853.80 | 2,069.75 | 2,279.20 | 2,474.97 | 2,649.69 | 2,796.21 | 2,908.06 |
| D&A | -78.34 | -91.07 | -104.46 | -118.23 | -132.00 | -145.36 | -157.84 | -168.99 | -178.33 | -185.46 |
| EBIT | 1,150.09 | 1,336.85 | 1,533.48 | 1,735.58 | 1,937.75 | 2,133.84 | 2,317.12 | 2,480.70 | 2,617.88 | 2,722.60 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -298.68 | -347.18 | -398.24 | -450.73 | -503.23 | -554.16 | -601.75 | -644.24 | -679.86 | -707.05 |
| NOPAT | 851.42 | 989.67 | 1,135.24 | 1,284.85 | 1,434.52 | 1,579.68 | 1,715.37 | 1,836.47 | 1,938.02 | 2,015.54 |
| Capital Expenditures | -26.15 | -30.40 | -34.87 | -39.46 | -44.06 | -48.52 | -52.69 | -56.41 | -59.53 | -61.91 |
| NWC Investment | -28.63 | -30.81 | -32.44 | -33.34 | -33.35 | -32.35 | -30.24 | -26.99 | -22.63 | -17.27 |
| (+) D&A | 78.34 | 91.07 | 104.46 | 118.23 | 132.00 | 145.36 | 157.84 | 168.99 | 178.33 | 185.46 |
| Free Cash Flow | 874.98 | 1,019.53 | 1,172.39 | 1,330.27 | 1,489.11 | 1,644.17 | 1,790.29 | 1,922.06 | 2,034.19 | 2,121.82 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 267,921,250.00 | 267,921,250.00 | 267,921,250.00 | 267,921,250.00 | 267,921,250.00 | 267,921,250.00 | 267,921,250.00 | 267,921,250.00 | 267,921,250.00 | 267,921,250.00 |
| Metric | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | Sep-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/28/25 | 9/29/26 | 9/29/27 | 9/29/28 | 9/29/29 | 9/29/30 | 9/29/31 | 9/29/32 | 9/29/33 | 9/29/34 |
| Period End | 9/28/26 | 9/28/27 | 9/28/28 | 9/28/29 | 9/28/30 | 9/28/31 | 9/28/32 | 9/28/33 | 9/28/34 | 9/28/35 |
| Mid-Point | 3/29/26 | 3/30/27 | 3/29/28 | 3/30/29 | 3/30/30 | 3/30/31 | 3/29/32 | 3/30/33 | 3/30/34 | 3/30/35 |
| Time (t) | 0.20 | 1.20 | 2.20 | 3.20 | 4.20 | 5.20 | 6.20 | 7.20 | 8.20 | 9.20 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | ||
| PV UFCF | 859.88 | 918.38 | 968.00 | 1,006.76 | 1,032.99 | 1,045.44 | 1,043.42 | 1,026.80 | 996.08 | 952.35 | Raw: 22,556.57 14,980.77 |
Raw: 32,140.75 13,811.26 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 19,766.77 | 23,661.35 |
| (-) Net Debt | 882.16 | 882.16 |
| Equity Value | 18,884.61 | 22,779.18 |
| (/) Shares Out | 267.92 | 267.92 |
| Fair Value | $70.49 | $85.02 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 39.94% | 39.94% |
| Buy Price | $42.33 | $51.06 |
| Current Price | $34.15 | $34.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 23.96% | 49.53% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.41 | ||
| PV UFCF | 858.31 | 908.37 | 948.76 | 977.79 | 994.15 | 997.00 | 986.03 | 961.51 | 924.27 | 875.67 | Raw: 18,368.30 11,687.07 |
Raw: 26,172.91 10,294.17 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 16,374.46 | 19,726.05 |
| (-) Net Debt | 882.16 | 882.16 |
| Equity Value | 15,492.29 | 18,843.88 |
| (/) Shares Out | 267.92 | 267.92 |
| Fair Value | $57.82 | $70.33 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 39.94% | 39.94% |
| Buy Price | $34.73 | $42.24 |
| Current Price | $34.15 | $34.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1.70% | 23.70% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 861.46 | 928.58 | 987.81 | 1,036.87 | 1,073.72 | 1,096.72 | 1,104.72 | 1,097.18 | 1,074.21 | 1,036.54 | Raw: 29,135.29 20,205.81 |
Raw: 41,514.75 19,506.13 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 25,094.26 | 29,803.95 |
| (-) Net Debt | 882.16 | 882.16 |
| Equity Value | 24,212.09 | 28,921.78 |
| (/) Shares Out | 267.92 | 267.92 |
| Fair Value | $90.37 | $107.95 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 39.94% | 39.94% |
| Buy Price | $54.28 | $64.83 |
| Current Price | $34.15 | $34.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 58.94% | 89.85% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 10,664.18 | 23,771.16 | 52,987.45 | 118,112.47 | 263,280.37 | 586,869.05 | 1,308,169.23 | 2,915,994.16 | 6,499,940.35 | 14,488,789.15 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 122.91% | 122.91% | 122.91% | 122.91% | 122.91% | 122.91% | 122.91% | 122.91% | 122.91% | 122.91% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.07 | 2.38 | 5.30 | 11.81 | 26.33 | 58.69 | 130.82 | 291.60 | 649.99 | 1,448.88 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.00 | 1.96 | 4.01 | 8.19 | 16.74 | 34.20 | 69.88 | 142.79 | 291.74 | 596.07 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-09-30 | $19.10 | 17.05% | $26.91 | 40.87% |
| 2019 | 2019-09-30 | $17.35 | 19.76% | $23.34 | 34.50% |
| 2018 | 2018-09-30 | $13.62 | 10.16% | $13.50 | -0.89% |
| 2017 | 2017-09-30 | $9.31 | 0.37% | $6.31 | -32.27% |
| 2016 | 2016-09-30 | $7.09 | 2.05% | $6.72 | -5.21% |
| 2015 | 2015-09-30 | $4.86 | 1.05% | $6.98 | 43.67% |
| 2014 | 2014-09-30 | $5.00 | 9.89% | $7.46 | 49.24% |
| 2013 | 2013-09-30 | $5.18 | 8.92% | $7.30 | 40.98% |
| 2012 | 2012-09-30 | $5.21 | 4.96% | $7.93 | 52.13% |
| 2011 | 2011-09-30 | $3.75 | -0.01% | $5.28 | 40.83% |
| 2010 | 2010-09-30 | $4.19 | -2.94% | $3.96 | -5.39% |
| 2009 | 2009-09-30 | $5.31 | 1.24% | $9.69 | 82.56% |
| 2008 | 2008-09-30 | $4.81 | 3.05% | $3.12 | -35.12% |
| 2007 | 2007-09-30 | $4.47 | 4.10% | $2.06 | -53.97% |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | $3.48 | 8.54% | $3.44 | -1.18% |
| 2005 | 2005-09-30 | $3.36 | 10.97% | $3.05 | -9.15% |
| 2004 | 2004-09-30 | $2.53 | 14.27% | $-0.53 | -121.14% |
| 2003 | 2003-09-30 | $4.00 | 8.70% | $4.35 | 8.75% |
| 2002 | 2002-09-30 | $1.60 | 10.28% | $7.38 | 361.32% |
| 2001 | 2001-09-30 | $3.60 | 15.39% | $3.39 | -5.89% |
| 2000 | 2000-09-30 | $4.57 | 15.07% | $-3.57 | -178.01% |
| 1999 | 1999-09-30 | $2.67 | 9.83% | $-2.94 | -209.97% |
| 1998 | 1998-09-30 | $2.88 | 8.77% | $-5.01 | -273.86% |
| 1997 | 1997-09-30 | $2.01 | 13.47% | $-0.20 | -109.73% |
| 1996 | 1996-09-30 | $1.95 | 21.59% | $3.14 | 60.92% |
| $55.29 - $64.29 | 29 |
| $64.29 - $73.30 | 155 |
| $73.30 - $82.30 | 243 |
| $82.30 - $91.30 | 238 |
| $91.30 - $100.31 | 162 |
| $100.31 - $109.31 | 91 |
| $109.31 - $118.32 | 41 |
| $118.32 - $127.32 | 21 |
| $127.32 - $136.32 | 9 |
| $136.32 - $145.33 | 4 |
| $145.33 - $154.33 | 4 |
| $154.33 - $163.34 | 1 |
| $163.34 - $172.34 | 0 |
| $172.34 - $181.34 | 1 |
| $181.34 - $190.35 | 0 |
| $190.35 - $199.35 | 0 |
| $199.35 - $208.35 | 0 |
| $208.35 - $217.36 | 0 |
| $217.36 - $226.36 | 0 |
| $226.36 - $235.37 | 1 |