Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $83.62 |
| 5Y Range | 74.91 – 125.44 |
| 5Y Selected | 100.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.29% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $19.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.39% |
| 10Y Range | 88.10 – 141.99 |
| 10Y Selected | 115.04 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.29% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $22.68 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -72.88% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9503 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9657 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2127 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0138 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0682 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6153 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0542 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0553 |
| Safety Score | 0.1971 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 10.82% | 10.06% | 9.30% | 8.55% | 7.79% | 7.03% | 6.27% | 5.52% | 4.76% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 4,636.48 | 5,103.00 | 5,577.80 | 6,054.51 | 6,526.09 | 6,984.94 | 7,423.12 | 7,832.54 | 8,205.20 | 8,533.41 |
| EBITDA | 1,744.03 | 1,919.51 | 2,098.11 | 2,277.43 | 2,454.81 | 2,627.41 | 2,792.24 | 2,946.24 | 3,086.42 | 3,209.87 |
| D&A | -645.16 | -710.07 | -776.14 | -842.47 | -908.09 | -971.94 | -1,032.91 | -1,089.88 | -1,141.74 | -1,187.41 |
| EBIT | 1,098.87 | 1,209.44 | 1,321.97 | 1,434.95 | 1,546.72 | 1,655.47 | 1,759.32 | 1,856.36 | 1,944.68 | 2,022.47 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -234.36 | -257.94 | -281.94 | -306.04 | -329.88 | -353.07 | -375.22 | -395.92 | -414.75 | -431.34 |
| NOPAT | 864.51 | 951.50 | 1,040.03 | 1,128.91 | 1,216.84 | 1,302.40 | 1,384.10 | 1,460.44 | 1,529.93 | 1,591.12 |
| Capital Expenditures | -364.39 | -401.05 | -438.37 | -475.83 | -512.90 | -548.96 | -583.39 | -615.57 | -644.86 | -670.65 |
| NWC Investment | -31.78 | -32.75 | -33.33 | -33.47 | -33.11 | -32.21 | -30.76 | -28.74 | -26.16 | -23.04 |
| (+) D&A | 645.16 | 710.07 | 776.14 | 842.47 | 908.09 | 971.94 | 1,032.91 | 1,089.88 | 1,141.74 | 1,187.41 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,113.50 | 1,227.76 | 1,344.47 | 1,462.09 | 1,578.93 | 1,693.17 | 1,802.86 | 1,906.01 | 2,000.64 | 2,084.83 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 197,250,000.00 | 197,250,000.00 | 197,250,000.00 | 197,250,000.00 | 197,250,000.00 | 197,250,000.00 | 197,250,000.00 | 197,250,000.00 | 197,250,000.00 | 197,250,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,103.84 | 1,180.59 | 1,184.99 | 1,180.17 | 1,168.20 | 1,148.25 | 1,120.68 | 1,086.00 | 1,044.86 | 998.03 | Raw: 24,461.03 17,326.88 |
Raw: 32,298.55 14,802.83 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 23,144.67 | 26,018.42 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,514.05 | 4,514.05 |
| Equity Value | 18,630.62 | 21,504.37 |
| (/) Shares Out | 197.25 | 197.25 |
| Fair Value | $94.45 | $109.02 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.29% | 80.29% |
| Buy Price | $18.62 | $21.49 |
| Current Price | $83.62 | $83.62 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.74% | -74.30% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,102.84 | 1,175.75 | 1,169.42 | 1,153.97 | 1,131.90 | 1,102.46 | 1,066.22 | 1,023.83 | 976.10 | 923.88 | Raw: 19,842.39 13,556.49 |
Raw: 26,200.05 11,065.18 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 19,290.36 | 21,891.55 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,514.05 | 4,514.05 |
| Equity Value | 14,776.31 | 17,377.50 |
| (/) Shares Out | 197.25 | 197.25 |
| Fair Value | $74.91 | $88.10 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.29% | 80.29% |
| Buy Price | $14.77 | $17.36 |
| Current Price | $83.62 | $83.62 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.34% | -79.23% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,104.86 | 1,185.49 | 1,200.92 | 1,207.21 | 1,206.02 | 1,196.39 | 1,178.47 | 1,152.56 | 1,119.15 | 1,078.88 | Raw: 31,788.49 23,353.50 |
Raw: 41,973.78 20,891.61 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 29,257.99 | 32,521.55 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,514.05 | 4,514.05 |
| Equity Value | 24,743.94 | 28,007.50 |
| (/) Shares Out | 197.25 | 197.25 |
| Fair Value | $125.44 | $141.99 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.29% | 80.29% |
| Buy Price | $24.73 | $27.99 |
| Current Price | $83.62 | $83.62 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -70.43% | -66.53% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 10,772.12 | 26,124.24 | 63,355.75 | 153,648.52 | 372,623.93 | 903,676.71 | 2,191,570.45 | 5,314,932.89 | 12,889,620.56 | 31,259,532.69 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.08 | 2.61 | 6.34 | 15.36 | 37.26 | 90.37 | 219.16 | 531.49 | 1,288.96 | 3,125.95 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.00 | 2.11 | 4.69 | 10.42 | 23.16 | 51.49 | 114.46 | 254.43 | 565.58 | 1,257.24 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $85.61 | 12.06% | $59.02 | -31.06% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $56.80 | 11.94% | $30.01 | -47.17% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $54.96 | 10.22% | $29.66 | -46.03% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $30.93 | 8.15% | $19.14 | -38.12% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $27.57 | 9.24% | $11.43 | -58.53% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $25.40 | 10.24% | $-19.49 | -176.74% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $25.40 | 8.57% | $-9.55 | -137.60% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $25.40 | 6.20% | $-8.69 | -134.23% |
| $68.88 - $78.60 | 23 |
| $78.60 - $88.31 | 88 |
| $88.31 - $98.02 | 182 |
| $98.02 - $107.73 | 195 |
| $107.73 - $117.45 | 164 |
| $117.45 - $127.16 | 118 |
| $127.16 - $136.87 | 92 |
| $136.87 - $146.58 | 51 |
| $146.58 - $156.30 | 28 |
| $156.30 - $166.01 | 21 |
| $166.01 - $175.72 | 17 |
| $175.72 - $185.43 | 9 |
| $185.43 - $195.15 | 3 |
| $195.15 - $204.86 | 5 |
| $204.86 - $214.57 | 0 |
| $214.57 - $224.28 | 2 |
| $224.28 - $234.00 | 0 |
| $234.00 - $243.71 | 0 |
| $243.71 - $253.42 | 1 |
| $253.42 - $263.14 | 1 |