Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $34.18 |
| 5Y Range | 10.80 – 20.99 |
| 5Y Selected | 15.89 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.57% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $2.29 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.29% |
| 10Y Range | 13.78 – 24.74 |
| 10Y Selected | 19.26 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.57% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $2.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.87% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8664 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.2651 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2628 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0996 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.3524 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1652 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8139 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1149 |
| Safety Score | 0.1443 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 6.34% | 6.08% | 5.82% | 5.56% | 5.30% | 5.04% | 4.78% | 4.52% | 4.26% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 983.64 | 1,043.43 | 1,104.15 | 1,165.53 | 1,227.29 | 1,289.14 | 1,350.76 | 1,411.80 | 1,471.95 | 1,530.82 |
| EBITDA | 143.46 | 152.18 | 161.04 | 169.99 | 179.00 | 188.02 | 197.00 | 205.91 | 214.68 | 223.26 |
| D&A | -59.52 | -63.14 | -66.81 | -70.52 | -74.26 | -78.00 | -81.73 | -85.43 | -89.06 | -92.63 |
| EBIT | 83.94 | 89.04 | 94.23 | 99.46 | 104.73 | 110.01 | 115.27 | 120.48 | 125.61 | 130.64 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -24.42 | -25.90 | -27.41 | -28.93 | -30.47 | -32.00 | -33.53 | -35.05 | -36.54 | -38.00 |
| NOPAT | 59.52 | 63.14 | 66.82 | 70.53 | 74.27 | 78.01 | 81.74 | 85.43 | 89.07 | 92.64 |
| Capital Expenditures | -46.37 | -49.19 | -52.05 | -54.95 | -57.86 | -60.77 | -63.68 | -66.56 | -69.39 | -72.17 |
| NWC Investment | -16.55 | -16.88 | -17.14 | -17.33 | -17.44 | -17.46 | -17.40 | -17.24 | -16.98 | -16.62 |
| (+) D&A | 59.52 | 63.14 | 66.81 | 70.52 | 74.26 | 78.00 | 81.73 | 85.43 | 89.06 | 92.63 |
| Free Cash Flow | 56.12 | 60.21 | 64.43 | 68.78 | 73.23 | 77.78 | 82.40 | 87.07 | 91.77 | 96.47 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 40,992,312.50 | 40,992,312.50 | 40,992,312.50 | 40,992,312.50 | 40,992,312.50 | 40,992,312.50 | 40,992,312.50 | 40,992,312.50 | 40,992,312.50 | 40,992,312.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 55.63 | 57.89 | 56.79 | 55.52 | 54.18 | 52.75 | 51.22 | 49.61 | 47.93 | 46.18 | Raw: 1,073.81 760.63 |
Raw: 1,414.57 648.31 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,040.65 | 1,176.02 |
| (-) Net Debt | 434.18 | 434.18 |
| Equity Value | 606.47 | 741.84 |
| (/) Shares Out | 40.99 | 40.99 |
| Fair Value | $14.79 | $18.10 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.57% | 85.57% |
| Buy Price | $2.13 | $2.61 |
| Current Price | $34.18 | $34.18 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.75% | -92.36% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 55.58 | 57.66 | 56.04 | 54.29 | 52.50 | 50.64 | 48.73 | 46.77 | 44.77 | 42.75 | Raw: 879.22 600.69 |
Raw: 1,158.22 489.16 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 876.75 | 998.89 |
| (-) Net Debt | 434.18 | 434.18 |
| Equity Value | 442.58 | 564.71 |
| (/) Shares Out | 40.99 | 40.99 |
| Fair Value | $10.80 | $13.78 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.57% | 85.57% |
| Buy Price | $1.56 | $1.99 |
| Current Price | $34.18 | $34.18 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.44% | -94.18% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 55.68 | 58.13 | 57.55 | 56.79 | 55.94 | 54.96 | 53.86 | 52.65 | 51.33 | 49.92 | Raw: 1,375.22 1,010.31 |
Raw: 1,811.63 901.70 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,294.41 | 1,448.52 |
| (-) Net Debt | 434.18 | 434.18 |
| Equity Value | 860.23 | 1,014.35 |
| (/) Shares Out | 40.99 | 40.99 |
| Fair Value | $20.99 | $24.74 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.57% | 85.57% |
| Buy Price | $3.03 | $3.57 |
| Current Price | $34.18 | $34.18 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.14% | -89.55% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,232.41 | 4,916.09 | 10,825.96 | 23,840.37 | 52,500.03 | 115,612.85 | 254,596.66 | 560,659.65 | 1,234,655.77 | 2,718,895.27 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 120.21% | 120.21% | 120.21% | 120.21% | 120.21% | 120.21% | 120.21% | 120.21% | 120.21% | 120.21% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.22 | 0.49 | 1.08 | 2.38 | 5.25 | 11.56 | 25.46 | 56.07 | 123.47 | 271.89 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.21 | 0.40 | 0.80 | 1.62 | 3.26 | 6.59 | 13.30 | 26.84 | 54.18 | 109.35 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $31.41 | 5.81% | $16.32 | -48.03% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $27.29 | 7.69% | $43.71 | 60.15% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $26.75 | 8.36% | $33.30 | 24.49% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $23.50 | 3.53% | $11.26 | -52.08% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $18.65 | -1.01% | $1.94 | -89.57% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $24.93 | -5.10% | $9.99 | -59.95% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $31.78 | -16.25% | $1.45 | -95.44% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $22.31 | -19.31% | $-6.35 | -128.48% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $14.30 | -18.87% | $-2.34 | -116.35% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $16.30 | -10.06% | $5.87 | -64.01% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $5.39 | 4.32% | $22.33 | 314.38% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $1.10 | 8.96% | $-16.92 | -1,638.62% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $8.44 | 4.86% | $-21.43 | -353.93% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $9.36 | -4.29% | $-44.69 | -577.46% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $9.36 | -16.29% | $-33.30 | -455.76% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $9.36 | -19.70% | $-36.84 | -493.56% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $9.36 | -13.61% | $-32.52 | -447.41% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $9.36 | -4.07% | $-63.24 | -775.64% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $9.36 | 8.14% | $37.96 | 305.58% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $9.36 | 10.89% | $17.84 | 90.60% |
| $8.54 - $10.62 | 9 |
| $10.62 - $12.70 | 48 |
| $12.70 - $14.79 | 129 |
| $14.79 - $16.87 | 191 |
| $16.87 - $18.95 | 210 |
| $18.95 - $21.04 | 148 |
| $21.04 - $23.12 | 111 |
| $23.12 - $25.21 | 59 |
| $25.21 - $27.29 | 34 |
| $27.29 - $29.37 | 25 |
| $29.37 - $31.46 | 15 |
| $31.46 - $33.54 | 11 |
| $33.54 - $35.62 | 6 |
| $35.62 - $37.71 | 2 |
| $37.71 - $39.79 | 1 |
| $39.79 - $41.87 | 0 |
| $41.87 - $43.96 | 0 |
| $43.96 - $46.04 | 0 |
| $46.04 - $48.12 | 0 |
| $48.12 - $50.21 | 1 |