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TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$6.12
5Y Range-0.94 – 1.22
5Y Selected0.14
(-) Safety Margin85.89%
5Y Buy Price$0.02
Upside (to Buy Price)-99.68%
10Y Range-1.38 – 0.26
10Y Selected-0.56
(-) Safety Margin85.89%
10Y Buy Price$-0.08
Upside (to Buy Price)-101.30%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.0714
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.0641
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.1734
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0258
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.1734
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.0671
FCF R2 (5Y)0.3332
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0784
Safety Score0.1411

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth-22.09%-19.19%-16.29%-13.39%-10.49%-7.59%-4.70%-1.80%1.10%4.00%
Revenue55.4644.8237.5232.4929.0826.8825.6125.1525.4326.45
EBITDA29.8324.1120.1817.4815.6414.4613.7813.5313.6814.23
D&A-2.94-2.38-1.99-1.72-1.54-1.43-1.36-1.33-1.35-1.40
EBIT26.8921.7318.1915.7614.1013.0312.4212.2012.3312.82
Pro forma Taxes-0.04-0.03-0.03-0.02-0.02-0.02-0.02-0.02-0.02-0.02
NOPAT26.8521.7018.1615.7314.0813.0112.4012.1812.3112.80
Capital Expenditures0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
NWC Investment0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
(+) D&A2.942.381.991.721.541.431.361.331.351.40
Free Cash Flow29.7924.0820.1517.4615.6214.4413.7613.5113.6614.21
Diluted Shares Outstanding40,187,750.0040,187,750.0040,187,750.0040,187,750.0040,187,750.0040,187,750.0040,187,750.0040,187,750.0040,187,750.0040,187,750.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.03%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF29.5423.1517.7614.0911.569.798.557.707.136.80
Raw: 225.61
159.81
Raw: 205.15
94.02

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value255.91230.10
(-) Net Debt259.45259.45
Equity Value-3.54-29.35
(/) Shares Out40.1940.19
Fair Value$-0.09$-0.73
(-) Safety Margin85.89%85.89%
Buy Price$-0.01$-0.10
Current Price$6.12$6.12
Upside (to Buy Price)-100.20%-101.68%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.53%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF29.5123.0617.5313.7811.209.408.147.266.676.30
Raw: 185.19
126.52
Raw: 168.40
71.12

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value221.60203.95
(-) Net Debt259.45259.45
Equity Value-37.86-55.50
(/) Shares Out40.1940.19
Fair Value$-0.94$-1.38
(-) Safety Margin85.89%85.89%
Buy Price$-0.13$-0.19
Current Price$6.12$6.12
Upside (to Buy Price)-102.17%-103.18%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.53%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF29.5623.2518.0014.4111.9310.208.998.177.647.35
Raw: 287.81
211.44
Raw: 261.72
130.26

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value308.60269.78
(-) Net Debt259.45259.45
Equity Value49.1510.33
(/) Shares Out40.1940.19
Fair Value$1.22$0.26
(-) Safety Margin85.89%85.89%
Buy Price$0.17$0.04
Current Price$6.12$6.12
Upside (to Buy Price)-97.18%-99.41%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$6.12
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH154.57%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue169.06430.371,095.572,788.937,099.6518,073.2646,008.28117,121.18298,150.02758,986.89
Constant Implied Growth154.57%154.57%154.57%154.57%154.57%154.57%154.57%154.57%154.57%154.57%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.020.040.110.280.711.814.6011.7129.8275.90
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.020.030.080.190.441.032.405.6113.0830.53

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$14.22-30.35%$-38.45-370.38%
20182018-12-31$10.89-65.08%$-4.98-145.70%
20172017-12-31$12.69-27.20%$-2.08-116.37%
20162016-12-31$11.788.37%$-145.50-1,335.16%
20152015-12-31$11.964.98%$0.11-99.08%
20142014-12-31$14.859.32%$-674.53-4,642.31%
20132013-12-31$15.65-4.86%$0.00-100.00%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-0.64
Median
$-0.76
10th Percentile
$-1.41
90th Percentile
$0.27

Fair Value Distribution

$-2.08 - $-1.82
12
$-1.82 - $-1.56
40
$-1.56 - $-1.30
102
$-1.30 - $-1.04
148
$-1.04 - $-0.78
187
$-0.78 - $-0.52
151
$-0.52 - $-0.26
125
$-0.26 - $0.00
83
$0.00 - $0.26
49
$0.26 - $0.52
36
$0.52 - $0.78
29
$0.78 - $1.04
17
$1.04 - $1.30
5
$1.30 - $1.56
7
$1.56 - $1.82
3
$1.82 - $2.08
3
$2.08 - $2.34
0
$2.34 - $2.60
1
$2.60 - $2.86
1
$2.86 - $3.13
0