Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $110.86 |
| 5Y Range | 73.49 – 112.03 |
| 5Y Selected | 92.76 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.93% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $24.18 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -78.19% |
| 10Y Range | 75.19 – 110.37 |
| 10Y Selected | 92.78 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.93% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $24.19 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -78.18% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.3842 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.4462 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0123 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2401 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.2700 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8510 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1801 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5866 |
| Safety Score | 0.2607 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -1.86% | -1.20% | -0.55% | 0.10% | 0.75% | 1.40% | 2.05% | 2.70% | 3.35% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 353.97 | 349.70 | 347.77 | 348.10 | 350.70 | 355.60 | 362.89 | 372.68 | 385.16 | 400.57 |
| EBITDA | 161.45 | 159.50 | 158.62 | 158.77 | 159.96 | 162.19 | 165.51 | 169.98 | 175.67 | 182.70 |
| D&A | -4.32 | -4.27 | -4.25 | -4.25 | -4.28 | -4.34 | -4.43 | -4.55 | -4.70 | -4.89 |
| EBIT | 157.12 | 155.23 | 154.37 | 154.52 | 155.67 | 157.85 | 161.08 | 165.43 | 170.97 | 177.81 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -33.84 | -33.43 | -33.25 | -33.28 | -33.53 | -34.00 | -34.69 | -35.63 | -36.82 | -38.29 |
| NOPAT | 123.28 | 121.80 | 121.12 | 121.24 | 122.15 | 123.85 | 126.39 | 129.80 | 134.15 | 139.52 |
| Capital Expenditures | -4.83 | -4.77 | -4.74 | -4.75 | -4.78 | -4.85 | -4.95 | -5.08 | -5.25 | -5.46 |
| NWC Investment | 1.85 | 1.18 | 0.54 | -0.09 | -0.72 | -1.36 | -2.02 | -2.71 | -3.46 | -4.27 |
| (+) D&A | 4.32 | 4.27 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.28 | 4.34 | 4.43 | 4.55 | 4.70 | 4.89 |
| Free Cash Flow | 124.63 | 122.48 | 121.16 | 120.65 | 120.92 | 121.99 | 123.85 | 126.55 | 130.14 | 134.67 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 18,382,885.25 | 18,382,885.25 | 18,382,885.25 | 18,382,885.25 | 18,382,885.25 | 18,382,885.25 | 18,382,885.25 | 18,382,885.25 | 18,382,885.25 | 18,382,885.25 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 123.55 | 117.67 | 106.70 | 97.39 | 89.47 | 82.73 | 76.99 | 72.11 | 67.97 | 64.47 | Raw: 1,798.03 1,273.63 |
Raw: 2,002.45 917.75 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,808.40 | 1,816.78 |
| (-) Net Debt | 180.27 | 180.27 |
| Equity Value | 1,628.13 | 1,636.51 |
| (/) Shares Out | 18.38 | 18.38 |
| Fair Value | $88.57 | $89.02 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.93% | 73.93% |
| Buy Price | $23.09 | $23.21 |
| Current Price | $110.86 | $110.86 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -79.17% | -79.07% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 123.44 | 117.18 | 105.29 | 95.22 | 86.69 | 79.43 | 73.25 | 67.98 | 63.49 | 59.68 | Raw: 1,468.77 1,003.48 |
Raw: 1,635.75 690.84 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,531.29 | 1,562.48 |
| (-) Net Debt | 180.27 | 180.27 |
| Equity Value | 1,351.02 | 1,382.21 |
| (/) Shares Out | 18.38 | 18.38 |
| Fair Value | $73.49 | $75.19 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.93% | 73.93% |
| Buy Price | $19.16 | $19.60 |
| Current Price | $110.86 | $110.86 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.72% | -82.32% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 123.67 | 118.17 | 108.14 | 99.62 | 92.36 | 86.20 | 80.96 | 76.53 | 72.80 | 69.69 | Raw: 2,311.06 1,697.83 |
Raw: 2,573.81 1,281.06 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,239.79 | 2,209.20 |
| (-) Net Debt | 180.27 | 180.27 |
| Equity Value | 2,059.52 | 2,028.93 |
| (/) Shares Out | 18.38 | 18.38 |
| Fair Value | $112.03 | $110.37 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.93% | 73.93% |
| Buy Price | $29.21 | $28.77 |
| Current Price | $110.86 | $110.86 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -73.65% | -74.05% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,064.50 | 2,600.71 | 6,353.83 | 15,523.13 | 37,924.80 | 92,654.65 | 226,365.99 | 553,038.19 | 1,351,136.03 | 3,300,981.01 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 144.31% | 144.31% | 144.31% | 144.31% | 144.31% | 144.31% | 144.31% | 144.31% | 144.31% | 144.31% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.11 | 0.26 | 0.64 | 1.55 | 3.79 | 9.27 | 22.64 | 55.30 | 135.11 | 330.10 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.10 | 0.21 | 0.47 | 1.05 | 2.36 | 5.28 | 11.82 | 26.47 | 59.29 | 132.76 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $28.60 | -2.95% | $11.96 | -58.17% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $27.22 | -1.46% | $-3.35 | -112.31% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $21.13 | 3.31% | $14.85 | -29.74% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $12.25 | 10.90% | $-4.45 | -136.35% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $10.12 | 12.26% | $18.34 | 81.25% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $10.12 | 10.65% | $-2.40 | -123.73% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $10.12 | 7.47% | $-13.99 | -238.22% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $10.12 | 3.53% | $1.22 | -87.90% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $10.12 | 4.30% | $0.80 | -92.12% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $10.12 | 6.51% | $0.20 | -98.00% |
| $61.61 - $67.23 | 18 |
| $67.23 - $72.85 | 66 |
| $72.85 - $78.46 | 114 |
| $78.46 - $84.08 | 155 |
| $84.08 - $89.70 | 170 |
| $89.70 - $95.32 | 156 |
| $95.32 - $100.94 | 104 |
| $100.94 - $106.55 | 70 |
| $106.55 - $112.17 | 60 |
| $112.17 - $117.79 | 32 |
| $117.79 - $123.41 | 18 |
| $123.41 - $129.02 | 10 |
| $129.02 - $134.64 | 14 |
| $134.64 - $140.26 | 3 |
| $140.26 - $145.88 | 2 |
| $145.88 - $151.50 | 5 |
| $151.50 - $157.11 | 1 |
| $157.11 - $162.73 | 0 |
| $162.73 - $168.35 | 1 |
| $168.35 - $173.97 | 1 |