Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1,025.00 |
| 5Y Range | 3,833.53 – 8,204.64 |
| 5Y Selected | 6,019.09 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.77% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $1,060.56 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 3.47% |
| 10Y Range | 4,149.36 – 8,605.97 |
| 10Y Selected | 6,377.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.77% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1,123.74 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 9.63% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6419 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0533 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6944 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0639 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5316 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0907 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6268 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0751 |
| Safety Score | 0.1762 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.85% | 5.65% | 5.44% | 5.24% | 5.03% | 4.82% | 4.62% | 4.41% | 4.21% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 3,268,404.10 | 3,453,002.90 | 3,640,914.71 | 3,831,552.45 | 4,024,279.05 | 4,218,409.86 | 4,413,215.71 | 4,607,926.56 | 4,801,735.83 | 4,993,805.27 |
| EBITDA | 584,486.09 | 617,497.75 | 651,101.86 | 685,193.46 | 719,658.60 | 754,374.86 | 789,211.83 | 824,031.82 | 858,690.58 | 893,038.20 |
| D&A | -34,071.95 | -35,996.33 | -37,955.24 | -39,942.57 | -41,951.68 | -43,975.42 | -46,006.20 | -48,035.99 | -50,056.39 | -52,058.64 |
| EBIT | 550,414.14 | 581,501.42 | 613,146.63 | 645,250.89 | 677,706.93 | 710,399.44 | 743,205.63 | 775,995.83 | 808,634.19 | 840,979.56 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -9,262.62 | -9,785.77 | -10,318.31 | -10,858.57 | -11,404.76 | -11,954.92 | -12,507.00 | -13,058.81 | -13,608.06 | -14,152.38 |
| NOPAT | 541,151.53 | 571,715.66 | 602,828.32 | 634,392.32 | 666,302.17 | 698,444.52 | 730,698.64 | 762,937.02 | 795,026.13 | 826,827.18 |
| Capital Expenditures | -37,062.24 | -39,155.51 | -41,286.35 | -43,448.09 | -45,633.53 | -47,834.88 | -50,043.89 | -52,251.83 | -54,449.54 | -56,627.52 |
| NWC Investment | 47,692.45 | 48,707.85 | 49,582.01 | 50,301.27 | 50,852.43 | 51,222.94 | 51,401.06 | 51,375.99 | 51,138.10 | 50,679.03 |
| (+) D&A | 34,071.95 | 35,996.33 | 37,955.24 | 39,942.57 | 41,951.68 | 43,975.42 | 46,006.20 | 48,035.99 | 50,056.39 | 52,058.64 |
| Free Cash Flow | 585,853.69 | 617,264.32 | 649,079.22 | 681,188.06 | 713,472.75 | 745,808.00 | 778,062.00 | 810,097.18 | 841,771.08 | 872,937.33 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 3,410,000,000.00 | 3,410,000,000.00 | 3,410,000,000.00 | 3,410,000,000.00 | 3,410,000,000.00 | 3,410,000,000.00 | 3,410,000,000.00 | 3,410,000,000.00 | 3,410,000,000.00 | 3,410,000,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 582,220.00 | 599,848.77 | 592,717.68 | 584,516.50 | 575,289.84 | 565,087.79 | 553,965.43 | 541,982.35 | 529,202.15 | 515,691.81 | Raw: 18,825,222.51 14,714,286.83 |
Raw: 23,032,749.98 13,189,937.75 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 17,648,879.63 | 18,830,460.07 |
| (-) Net Debt | -65.64 | -65.64 |
| Equity Value | 17,648,945.27 | 18,830,525.72 |
| (/) Shares Out | 3,410.00 | 3,410.00 |
| Fair Value | $5,175.64 | $5,522.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.77% | 85.77% |
| Buy Price | $736.49 | $785.80 |
| Current Price | $1,025.00 | $1,025.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -28.15% | -23.34% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 581,675.71 | 597,273.56 | 584,678.98 | 571,221.38 | 556,970.85 | 542,000.59 | 526,386.30 | 510,205.51 | 493,536.96 | 476,459.94 | Raw: 13,516,162.82 10,180,457.89 |
Raw: 16,537,090.00 8,708,858.64 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 13,072,278.37 | 14,149,268.42 |
| (-) Net Debt | -65.64 | -65.64 |
| Equity Value | 13,072,344.01 | 14,149,334.06 |
| (/) Shares Out | 3,410.00 | 3,410.00 |
| Fair Value | $3,833.53 | $4,149.36 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.77% | 85.77% |
| Buy Price | $545.51 | $590.45 |
| Current Price | $1,025.00 | $1,025.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -46.78% | -42.39% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 582,769.95 | 602,459.56 | 600,944.37 | 598,251.00 | 594,392.94 | 589,390.49 | 583,270.66 | 576,066.85 | 567,818.59 | 558,571.17 | Raw: 30,809,559.24 24,998,943.33 |
Raw: 37,695,643.41 23,492,353.52 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 27,977,761.16 | 29,346,289.11 |
| (-) Net Debt | -65.64 | -65.64 |
| Equity Value | 27,977,826.80 | 29,346,354.76 |
| (/) Shares Out | 3,410.00 | 3,410.00 |
| Fair Value | $8,204.64 | $8,605.97 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.77% | 85.77% |
| Buy Price | $1,167.52 | $1,224.63 |
| Current Price | $1,025.00 | $1,025.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 13.90% | 19.48% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 6,996,748.08 | 13,399,045.87 | 25,659,696.25 | 49,139,320.65 | 94,103,718.55 | 180,212,296.95 | 345,113,588.20 | 660,906,002.40 | 1,265,660,811.25 | 2,423,789,893.41 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 91.50% | 91.50% | 91.50% | 91.50% | 91.50% | 91.50% | 91.50% | 91.50% | 91.50% | 91.50% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 699.67 | 1,339.90 | 2,565.97 | 4,913.93 | 9,410.37 | 18,021.23 | 34,511.36 | 66,090.60 | 126,566.08 | 242,378.99 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 664.46 | 1,149.75 | 2,069.00 | 3,723.21 | 6,700.01 | 12,056.81 | 21,696.50 | 39,043.33 | 70,259.34 | 126,433.24 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $436.00 | 11.46% | $1,104.24 | 153.26% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $585.00 | 3.96% | $890.73 | 52.26% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $660.00 | -7.51% | $775.33 | 17.47% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $765.00 | -12.35% | $631.88 | -17.40% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $615.00 | -2.45% | $931.51 | 51.46% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $1,120.00 | 3.33% | $1,127.19 | 0.64% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $500.00 | 8.17% | $-642.42 | -228.48% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $870.00 | 6.21% | $1,186.48 | 36.38% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $285.00 | 5.11% | $1,516.23 | 432.01% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $255.00 | 8.73% | $1,437.79 | 463.84% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $150.00 | 8.64% | $1,690.71 | 1,027.14% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $70.97 | 2.08% | $772.51 | 988.50% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $475.81 | -3.94% | $81.25 | -82.92% |
| $3,083.59 - $6,946.29 | 786 |
| $6,946.29 - $10,809.00 | 181 |
| $10,809.00 - $14,671.71 | 24 |
| $14,671.71 - $18,534.42 | 2 |
| $18,534.42 - $22,397.13 | 3 |
| $22,397.13 - $26,259.83 | 3 |
| $26,259.83 - $30,122.54 | 0 |
| $30,122.54 - $33,985.25 | 0 |
| $33,985.25 - $37,847.96 | 0 |
| $37,847.96 - $41,710.67 | 0 |
| $41,710.67 - $45,573.37 | 0 |
| $45,573.37 - $49,436.08 | 0 |
| $49,436.08 - $53,298.79 | 0 |
| $53,298.79 - $57,161.50 | 0 |
| $57,161.50 - $61,024.20 | 0 |
| $61,024.20 - $64,886.91 | 0 |
| $64,886.91 - $68,749.62 | 0 |
| $68,749.62 - $72,612.33 | 0 |
| $72,612.33 - $76,475.04 | 0 |
| $76,475.04 - $80,337.74 | 1 |