Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $70.78 |
| 5Y Range | 81.73 – 161.52 |
| 5Y Selected | 121.63 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.50% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $20.07 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -71.65% |
| 10Y Range | 112.35 – 203.54 |
| 10Y Selected | 157.95 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.50% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $26.06 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -63.18% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8438 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.4599 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6368 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2230 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6344 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0148 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0186 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5471 |
| Safety Score | 0.1650 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 9.01% | 8.45% | 7.89% | 7.34% | 6.78% | 6.23% | 5.67% | 5.11% | 4.56% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 4,212.06 | 4,568.03 | 4,928.68 | 5,290.37 | 5,649.16 | 6,000.86 | 6,341.07 | 6,665.27 | 6,968.97 | 7,247.73 |
| EBITDA | 1,206.18 | 1,308.11 | 1,411.39 | 1,514.96 | 1,617.71 | 1,718.42 | 1,815.84 | 1,908.68 | 1,995.65 | 2,075.48 |
| D&A | -160.99 | -174.59 | -188.38 | -202.20 | -215.91 | -229.35 | -242.36 | -254.75 | -266.36 | -277.01 |
| EBIT | 1,045.19 | 1,133.52 | 1,223.01 | 1,312.76 | 1,401.80 | 1,489.07 | 1,573.49 | 1,653.94 | 1,729.30 | 1,798.47 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -238.25 | -258.39 | -278.79 | -299.25 | -319.54 | -339.43 | -358.68 | -377.02 | -394.19 | -409.96 |
| NOPAT | 806.94 | 875.13 | 944.23 | 1,013.52 | 1,082.25 | 1,149.63 | 1,214.81 | 1,276.92 | 1,335.10 | 1,388.50 |
| Capital Expenditures | -114.58 | -124.26 | -134.07 | -143.91 | -153.67 | -163.23 | -172.49 | -181.31 | -189.57 | -197.15 |
| NWC Investment | -217.49 | -222.44 | -225.35 | -226.01 | -224.20 | -219.77 | -212.58 | -202.59 | -189.77 | -174.19 |
| (+) D&A | 160.99 | 174.59 | 188.38 | 202.20 | 215.91 | 229.35 | 242.36 | 254.75 | 266.36 | 277.01 |
| Free Cash Flow | 635.86 | 703.03 | 773.18 | 845.80 | 920.30 | 995.99 | 1,072.09 | 1,147.77 | 1,222.12 | 1,294.18 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 67,600,000.00 | 67,600,000.00 | 67,600,000.00 | 67,600,000.00 | 67,600,000.00 | 67,600,000.00 | 67,600,000.00 | 67,600,000.00 | 67,600,000.00 | 67,600,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 630.34 | 676.01 | 681.47 | 682.71 | 680.90 | 675.45 | 666.43 | 653.97 | 638.26 | 619.53 | Raw: 13,698.52 9,703.29 |
Raw: 19,263.62 8,828.76 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 13,054.73 | 15,433.83 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5,421.50 | 5,421.50 |
| Equity Value | 7,633.23 | 10,012.33 |
| (/) Shares Out | 67.60 | 67.60 |
| Fair Value | $112.92 | $148.11 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.50% | 83.50% |
| Buy Price | $18.63 | $24.44 |
| Current Price | $70.78 | $70.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -73.68% | -65.47% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 629.77 | 673.24 | 672.51 | 667.56 | 659.74 | 648.51 | 634.04 | 616.54 | 596.26 | 573.51 | Raw: 11,188.02 7,643.76 |
Raw: 15,733.23 6,644.68 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 10,946.58 | 13,016.37 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5,421.50 | 5,421.50 |
| Equity Value | 5,525.08 | 7,594.87 |
| (/) Shares Out | 67.60 | 67.60 |
| Fair Value | $81.73 | $112.35 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.50% | 83.50% |
| Buy Price | $13.49 | $18.54 |
| Current Price | $70.78 | $70.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -80.95% | -73.81% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 630.92 | 678.82 | 690.63 | 698.35 | 702.94 | 703.76 | 700.79 | 694.05 | 683.65 | 669.72 | Raw: 17,612.03 12,938.72 |
Raw: 24,767.02 12,327.29 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 16,340.39 | 19,180.94 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5,421.50 | 5,421.50 |
| Equity Value | 10,918.89 | 13,759.44 |
| (/) Shares Out | 67.60 | 67.60 |
| Fair Value | $161.52 | $203.54 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.50% | 83.50% |
| Buy Price | $26.65 | $33.58 |
| Current Price | $70.78 | $70.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -62.35% | -52.55% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 9,051.17 | 20,651.30 | 47,118.34 | 107,505.97 | 245,287.36 | 559,651.62 | 1,276,910.20 | 2,913,419.02 | 6,647,304.07 | 15,166,596.72 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 128.16% | 128.16% | 128.16% | 128.16% | 128.16% | 128.16% | 128.16% | 128.16% | 128.16% | 128.16% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.91 | 2.07 | 4.71 | 10.75 | 24.53 | 55.97 | 127.69 | 291.34 | 664.73 | 1,516.66 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.84 | 1.67 | 3.49 | 7.29 | 15.25 | 31.89 | 66.69 | 139.47 | 291.67 | 609.99 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $51.69 | 19.03% | $65.46 | 26.63% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $35.84 | 8.08% | $23.20 | -35.26% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $52.29 | -0.45% | $58.46 | 11.79% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $34.47 | -10.75% | $16.77 | -51.35% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $32.79 | -15.31% | $5.50 | -83.24% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $38.70 | -3.81% | $37.01 | -4.36% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $33.26 | -0.73% | $49.40 | 48.51% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $24.01 | 7.24% | $84.07 | 250.14% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $17.07 | 11.66% | $92.81 | 443.68% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $13.52 | 14.48% | $52.78 | 290.39% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $9.10 | 16.99% | $84.52 | 828.77% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $2.96 | 15.55% | $-23.07 | -879.51% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $10.63 | 7.79% | $-28.69 | -369.87% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $14.45 | 0.67% | $-15.33 | -206.08% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $19.48 | 0.77% | $17.80 | -8.60% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $19.48 | 6.75% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $19.48 | 13.11% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $19.48 | 14.57% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $19.48 | 13.29% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| $79.20 - $95.08 | 25 |
| $95.08 - $110.96 | 77 |
| $110.96 - $126.84 | 166 |
| $126.84 - $142.72 | 210 |
| $142.72 - $158.60 | 157 |
| $158.60 - $174.48 | 131 |
| $174.48 - $190.36 | 73 |
| $190.36 - $206.23 | 53 |
| $206.23 - $222.11 | 51 |
| $222.11 - $237.99 | 21 |
| $237.99 - $253.87 | 13 |
| $253.87 - $269.75 | 6 |
| $269.75 - $285.63 | 8 |
| $285.63 - $301.51 | 2 |
| $301.51 - $317.39 | 5 |
| $317.39 - $333.27 | 0 |
| $333.27 - $349.14 | 1 |
| $349.14 - $365.02 | 0 |
| $365.02 - $380.90 | 0 |
| $380.90 - $396.78 | 1 |