Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $60.69 |
| 5Y Range | 121.10 – 187.59 |
| 5Y Selected | 154.34 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.05% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $52.40 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -13.66% |
| 10Y Range | 134.69 – 202.81 |
| 10Y Selected | 168.75 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.05% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $57.29 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -5.60% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8658 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9822 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0961 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5735 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0000 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7086 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0937 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2496 |
| Safety Score | 0.3395 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 11.91% | 11.03% | 10.15% | 9.27% | 8.40% | 7.52% | 6.64% | 5.76% | 4.88% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 5,654.89 | 6,278.76 | 6,916.27 | 7,557.71 | 8,192.20 | 8,807.94 | 9,392.54 | 9,933.38 | 10,418.03 | 10,834.75 |
| EBITDA | 483.47 | 536.80 | 591.31 | 646.15 | 700.39 | 753.04 | 803.02 | 849.26 | 890.69 | 926.32 |
| D&A | -104.89 | -116.46 | -128.28 | -140.18 | -151.95 | -163.37 | -174.22 | -184.25 | -193.24 | -200.97 |
| EBIT | 378.58 | 420.34 | 463.02 | 505.97 | 548.44 | 589.67 | 628.80 | 665.01 | 697.46 | 725.35 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -91.20 | -101.26 | -111.54 | -121.88 | -132.12 | -142.05 | -151.47 | -160.20 | -168.01 | -174.73 |
| NOPAT | 287.38 | 319.09 | 351.48 | 384.08 | 416.33 | 447.62 | 477.33 | 504.81 | 529.44 | 550.62 |
| Capital Expenditures | -66.69 | -74.04 | -81.56 | -89.13 | -96.61 | -103.87 | -110.76 | -117.14 | -122.86 | -127.77 |
| NWC Investment | 40.86 | 42.36 | 43.28 | 43.55 | 43.08 | 41.80 | 39.69 | 36.72 | 32.90 | 28.29 |
| (+) D&A | 104.89 | 116.46 | 128.28 | 140.18 | 151.95 | 163.37 | 174.22 | 184.25 | 193.24 | 200.97 |
| Free Cash Flow | 366.45 | 403.86 | 441.49 | 478.69 | 514.75 | 548.93 | 580.47 | 608.64 | 632.73 | 652.11 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 49,000,000.00 | 49,000,000.00 | 49,000,000.00 | 49,000,000.00 | 49,000,000.00 | 49,000,000.00 | 49,000,000.00 | 49,000,000.00 | 49,000,000.00 | 49,000,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 363.27 | 388.00 | 388.78 | 386.39 | 380.84 | 372.26 | 360.83 | 346.79 | 330.45 | 312.17 | Raw: 7,985.13 5,656.24 |
Raw: 10,115.99 4,636.28 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,563.52 | 8,266.06 |
| (-) Net Debt | 370.25 | 370.25 |
| Equity Value | 7,193.27 | 7,895.81 |
| (/) Shares Out | 49.00 | 49.00 |
| Fair Value | $146.80 | $161.14 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.05% | 66.05% |
| Buy Price | $49.84 | $54.71 |
| Current Price | $60.69 | $60.69 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -17.88% | -9.86% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 362.94 | 386.38 | 383.64 | 377.81 | 369.01 | 357.42 | 343.29 | 326.94 | 308.70 | 288.98 | Raw: 6,475.92 4,424.40 |
Raw: 8,204.03 3,464.84 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,304.18 | 6,969.95 |
| (-) Net Debt | 370.25 | 370.25 |
| Equity Value | 5,933.93 | 6,599.70 |
| (/) Shares Out | 49.00 | 49.00 |
| Fair Value | $121.10 | $134.69 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.05% | 66.05% |
| Buy Price | $41.11 | $45.73 |
| Current Price | $60.69 | $60.69 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -32.26% | -24.66% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 363.60 | 389.65 | 394.05 | 395.24 | 393.17 | 387.87 | 379.43 | 368.04 | 353.95 | 337.46 | Raw: 10,380.93 7,626.37 |
Raw: 13,151.10 6,545.70 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,562.09 | 10,308.16 |
| (-) Net Debt | 370.25 | 370.25 |
| Equity Value | 9,191.84 | 9,937.91 |
| (/) Shares Out | 49.00 | 49.00 |
| Fair Value | $187.59 | $202.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.05% | 66.05% |
| Buy Price | $63.69 | $68.86 |
| Current Price | $60.69 | $60.69 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 4.94% | 13.45% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 10,108.92 | 20,084.57 | 39,904.36 | 79,282.63 | 157,520.03 | 312,963.38 | 621,800.78 | 1,235,404.00 | 2,454,520.93 | 4,876,682.46 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 98.68% | 98.68% | 98.68% | 98.68% | 98.68% | 98.68% | 98.68% | 98.68% | 98.68% | 98.68% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.01 | 2.01 | 3.99 | 7.93 | 15.75 | 31.30 | 62.18 | 123.54 | 245.45 | 487.67 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.94 | 1.62 | 2.95 | 5.38 | 9.79 | 17.83 | 32.47 | 59.14 | 107.70 | 196.14 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $56.61 | 12.63% | $153.21 | 170.65% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $41.95 | 11.52% | $-54.01 | -228.75% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $44.34 | 11.09% | $73.87 | 66.59% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $25.62 | 9.38% | $29.74 | 16.08% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $19.35 | 7.96% | $29.11 | 50.44% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $31.28 | 8.82% | $44.89 | 43.51% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $19.10 | 7.08% | $16.34 | -14.44% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $19.10 | 14.64% | $26.62 | 39.38% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $19.10 | 25.13% | $25.26 | 32.28% |
| $100.42 - $112.28 | 4 |
| $112.28 - $124.14 | 18 |
| $124.14 - $136.00 | 99 |
| $136.00 - $147.87 | 161 |
| $147.87 - $159.73 | 184 |
| $159.73 - $171.59 | 163 |
| $171.59 - $183.46 | 126 |
| $183.46 - $195.32 | 96 |
| $195.32 - $207.18 | 63 |
| $207.18 - $219.04 | 28 |
| $219.04 - $230.91 | 20 |
| $230.91 - $242.77 | 14 |
| $242.77 - $254.63 | 9 |
| $254.63 - $266.49 | 7 |
| $266.49 - $278.36 | 4 |
| $278.36 - $290.22 | 0 |
| $290.22 - $302.08 | 2 |
| $302.08 - $313.94 | 1 |
| $313.94 - $325.81 | 0 |
| $325.81 - $337.67 | 1 |