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Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & ResearchSector: Healthcare

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$570.16
5Y Range303.91 – 502.57
5Y Selected403.24
(-) Safety Margin33.55%
5Y Buy Price$267.95
Upside (to Buy Price)-53.00%
10Y Range361.29 – 577.05
10Y Selected469.17
(-) Safety Margin33.55%
10Y Buy Price$311.76
Upside (to Buy Price)-45.32%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.6177
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9340
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.1775
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.7619
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.2737
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.8945
FCF R2 (5Y)0.5553
FCF R2 (10Y)0.8825
Safety Score0.6645

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth10.69%9.95%9.20%8.46%7.72%6.97%6.23%5.49%4.74%4.00%
Revenue47,462.5352,183.2456,985.6161,806.3866,575.5971,217.9675,654.7179,805.5483,590.9386,934.57
EBITDA11,674.6412,835.8214,017.0815,202.8816,375.9917,517.9018,609.2319,630.2420,561.3521,383.81
D&A-3,825.37-4,205.85-4,592.91-4,981.46-5,365.84-5,740.01-6,097.60-6,432.15-6,737.24-7,006.73
EBIT7,849.268,629.969,424.1710,221.4211,010.1411,777.8912,511.6313,198.0913,824.1114,377.07
Pro forma Taxes-690.22-758.87-828.71-898.81-968.17-1,035.68-1,100.20-1,160.56-1,215.61-1,264.23
NOPAT7,159.047,871.108,595.469,322.6110,041.9810,742.2111,411.4312,037.5212,608.5013,112.84
Capital Expenditures-1,875.83-2,062.40-2,252.20-2,442.73-2,631.22-2,814.70-2,990.05-3,154.10-3,303.71-3,435.85
NWC Investment-746.77-769.12-782.42-785.42-777.02-756.35-722.85-676.27-616.73-544.76
(+) D&A3,825.374,205.854,592.914,981.465,365.845,740.016,097.606,432.156,737.247,006.73
Free Cash Flow8,361.829,245.4310,153.7611,075.9211,999.5812,911.1713,796.1314,639.3115,425.3016,138.96
Diluted Shares Outstanding379,500,000.00379,500,000.00379,500,000.00379,500,000.00379,500,000.00379,500,000.00379,500,000.00379,500,000.00379,500,000.00379,500,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/27/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/13/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.47%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF8,289.338,890.168,949.378,940.278,878.108,755.948,575.868,341.118,056.027,725.84
Raw: 185,426.23
131,345.95
Raw: 249,390.85
114,298.91

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value175,293.17199,700.90
(-) Net Debt30,786.5030,786.50
Equity Value144,506.67168,914.40
(/) Shares Out379.50379.50
Fair Value$380.78$445.10
(-) Safety Margin33.55%33.55%
Buy Price$253.03$295.77
Current Price$570.16$570.16
Upside (to Buy Price)-55.62%-48.13%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.97%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF8,281.778,853.738,831.748,741.838,602.208,406.778,159.097,863.677,525.917,151.90
Raw: 150,481.06
102,809.99
Raw: 202,391.00
85,476.65

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value146,121.26167,895.28
(-) Net Debt30,786.5030,786.50
Equity Value115,334.76137,108.78
(/) Shares Out379.50379.50
Fair Value$303.91$361.29
(-) Safety Margin33.55%33.55%
Buy Price$201.95$240.08
Current Price$570.16$570.16
Upside (to Buy Price)-64.58%-57.89%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.97%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF8,296.978,927.089,069.669,145.109,165.529,123.029,018.068,852.358,628.878,351.76
Raw: 240,803.18
176,906.70
Raw: 323,870.63
161,200.11

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value221,511.02249,778.49
(-) Net Debt30,786.5030,786.50
Equity Value190,724.52218,991.99
(/) Shares Out379.50379.50
Fair Value$502.57$577.05
(-) Safety Margin33.55%33.55%
Buy Price$333.96$383.45
Current Price$570.16$570.16
Upside (to Buy Price)-41.43%-32.75%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$570.16
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH146.88%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue107,973.25266,558.96658,067.431,624,603.984,010,741.079,901,517.0324,444,370.1660,347,038.84148,981,752.14367,798,700.61
Constant Implied Growth146.88%146.88%146.88%146.88%146.88%146.88%146.88%146.88%146.88%146.88%
Implied Free Cash Flow10.8026.6665.81162.46401.07990.152,444.446,034.7014,898.1836,779.87
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF10.0521.5248.69110.18249.31564.161,276.632,888.866,537.1214,792.67

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$324.877.53%$170.64-47.47%
20182018-12-31$223.7914.49%$219.30-2.01%
20172017-12-31$189.8817.18%$223.7117.82%
20162016-12-31$141.1015.56%$158.9212.63%
20152015-12-31$141.8513.15%$127.74-9.94%
20142014-12-31$125.2910.81%$98.34-21.51%
20132013-12-31$111.359.32%$94.82-14.84%
20122012-12-31$63.788.41%$85.1433.49%
20112011-12-31$44.977.52%$62.1638.22%
20102010-12-31$55.368.57%$63.4914.69%
20092009-12-31$47.6910.87%$82.8373.68%
20082008-12-31$34.0710.38%$63.0284.96%
20072007-12-31$57.688.57%$63.8510.70%
20062006-12-31$45.296.36%$23.09-49.02%
20052005-12-31$30.137.08%$26.39-12.41%
20042004-12-31$30.1910.78%$31.915.69%
20032003-12-31$25.2015.87%$30.9322.73%
20022002-12-31$20.1215.27%$5.25-73.93%
20012001-12-31$23.8611.24%$11.18-53.13%
20002000-12-31$25.586.91%$8.85-65.41%
19991999-12-31$12.900.13%$-23.30-280.59%
19981998-12-31$14.56-5.01%$-16.23-211.44%
19971997-12-31$37.83-15.67%$-41.49-209.68%
19961996-12-31$35.47-18.61%$-4.70-113.25%
19951995-12-31$29.81-11.99%$3.01-89.89%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$455.10
Median
$440.18
10th Percentile
$356.19
90th Percentile
$574.28

Fair Value Distribution

$261.62 - $307.98
15
$307.98 - $354.34
80
$354.34 - $400.69
190
$400.69 - $447.05
247
$447.05 - $493.41
198
$493.41 - $539.77
121
$539.77 - $586.13
67
$586.13 - $632.49
42
$632.49 - $678.85
17
$678.85 - $725.21
11
$725.21 - $771.57
8
$771.57 - $817.93
1
$817.93 - $864.29
1
$864.29 - $910.65
0
$910.65 - $957.00
1
$957.00 - $1,003.36
0
$1,003.36 - $1,049.72
0
$1,049.72 - $1,096.08
0
$1,096.08 - $1,142.44
0
$1,142.44 - $1,188.80
1