Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $97.67 |
| 5Y Range | 106.59 – 177.98 |
| 5Y Selected | 142.29 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.39% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $23.63 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -75.80% |
| 10Y Range | 119.40 – 191.37 |
| 10Y Selected | 155.38 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.39% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $25.81 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -73.58% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.4818 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8604 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1222 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1727 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0594 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.2115 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1390 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0193 |
| Safety Score | 0.1661 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 7.69% | 7.28% | 6.87% | 6.46% | 6.05% | 5.64% | 5.23% | 4.82% | 4.41% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 114,761.75 | 123,117.20 | 131,576.10 | 140,076.59 | 148,551.83 | 156,930.67 | 165,138.55 | 173,098.51 | 180,732.30 | 187,961.60 |
| EBITDA | 9,298.32 | 9,975.30 | 10,660.66 | 11,349.40 | 12,036.08 | 12,714.96 | 13,379.99 | 14,024.92 | 14,643.43 | 15,229.17 |
| D&A | -3,298.68 | -3,538.84 | -3,781.98 | -4,026.32 | -4,269.93 | -4,510.77 | -4,746.69 | -4,975.49 | -5,194.91 | -5,402.71 |
| EBIT | 5,999.64 | 6,436.45 | 6,878.68 | 7,323.08 | 7,766.15 | 8,204.19 | 8,633.29 | 9,049.43 | 9,448.52 | 9,826.46 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,400.32 | -1,502.27 | -1,605.49 | -1,709.21 | -1,812.63 | -1,914.87 | -2,015.02 | -2,112.15 | -2,205.29 | -2,293.51 |
| NOPAT | 4,599.32 | 4,934.18 | 5,273.19 | 5,613.86 | 5,953.53 | 6,289.33 | 6,618.27 | 6,937.29 | 7,243.23 | 7,532.96 |
| Capital Expenditures | -4,049.41 | -4,344.24 | -4,642.71 | -4,942.66 | -5,241.71 | -5,537.36 | -5,826.98 | -6,107.85 | -6,377.21 | -6,632.30 |
| NWC Investment | 272.32 | 277.63 | 281.07 | 282.45 | 281.61 | 278.41 | 272.73 | 264.49 | 253.65 | 240.21 |
| (+) D&A | 3,298.68 | 3,538.84 | 3,781.98 | 4,026.32 | 4,269.93 | 4,510.77 | 4,746.69 | 4,975.49 | 5,194.91 | 5,402.71 |
| Free Cash Flow | 4,120.91 | 4,406.42 | 4,693.53 | 4,979.98 | 5,263.36 | 5,541.14 | 5,810.72 | 6,069.42 | 6,314.59 | 6,543.58 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 456,550,000.00 | 456,550,000.00 | 456,550,000.00 | 456,550,000.00 | 456,550,000.00 | 456,550,000.00 | 456,550,000.00 | 456,550,000.00 | 456,550,000.00 | 456,550,000.00 |
| Metric | Feb-26 | Feb-27 | Feb-28 | Feb-29 | Feb-30 | Feb-31 | Feb-32 | Feb-33 | Feb-34 | Feb-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 11/1/25 | 2/2/26 | 2/2/27 | 2/2/28 | 2/2/29 | 2/2/30 | 2/2/31 | 2/2/32 | 2/2/33 | 2/2/34 |
| Period End | 2/1/26 | 2/1/27 | 2/1/28 | 2/1/29 | 2/1/30 | 2/1/31 | 2/1/32 | 2/1/33 | 2/1/34 | 2/1/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/17/25 | 8/3/26 | 8/3/27 | 8/2/28 | 8/3/29 | 8/3/30 | 8/3/31 | 8/2/32 | 8/3/33 | 8/3/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.54 | 1.54 | 2.54 | 3.55 | 4.55 | 5.55 | 6.55 | 7.55 | 8.55 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,085.18 | 4,204.02 | 4,104.51 | 3,991.84 | 3,863.79 | 3,728.49 | 3,583.82 | 3,431.21 | 3,272.11 | 3,108.01 | Raw: 80,855.29 56,826.44 |
Raw: 100,521.98 45,710.83 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 77,075.77 | 83,083.80 |
| (-) Net Debt | 15,777.75 | 15,777.75 |
| Equity Value | 61,298.02 | 67,306.05 |
| (/) Shares Out | 456.55 | 456.55 |
| Fair Value | $134.26 | $147.42 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.39% | 83.39% |
| Buy Price | $22.30 | $24.49 |
| Current Price | $97.67 | $97.67 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.17% | -74.93% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,081.45 | 4,183.36 | 4,047.24 | 3,900.39 | 3,740.64 | 3,576.87 | 3,406.86 | 3,232.15 | 3,054.29 | 2,874.76 | Raw: 65,684.18 44,489.15 |
Raw: 81,660.75 34,190.82 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 64,442.22 | 70,288.82 |
| (-) Net Debt | 15,777.75 | 15,777.75 |
| Equity Value | 48,664.47 | 54,511.07 |
| (/) Shares Out | 456.55 | 456.55 |
| Fair Value | $106.59 | $119.40 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.39% | 83.39% |
| Buy Price | $17.70 | $19.83 |
| Current Price | $97.67 | $97.67 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.87% | -79.69% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,088.94 | 4,224.97 | 4,163.13 | 4,086.30 | 3,992.18 | 3,888.02 | 3,771.74 | 3,644.53 | 3,507.69 | 3,362.60 | Raw: 104,833.50 76,478.36 |
Raw: 130,332.49 64,417.35 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 97,033.90 | 103,147.47 |
| (-) Net Debt | 15,777.75 | 15,777.75 |
| Equity Value | 81,256.15 | 87,369.72 |
| (/) Shares Out | 456.55 | 456.55 |
| Fair Value | $177.98 | $191.37 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.39% | 83.39% |
| Buy Price | $29.56 | $31.79 |
| Current Price | $97.67 | $97.67 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.73% | -67.46% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 204,510.18 | 397,411.81 | 772,265.46 | 1,500,695.05 | 2,916,206.60 | 5,666,881.45 | 11,012,095.44 | 21,399,114.65 | 41,583,557.88 | 80,806,720.93 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 20.45 | 39.74 | 77.23 | 150.07 | 291.62 | 566.69 | 1,101.21 | 2,139.91 | 4,158.36 | 8,080.67 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 19.72 | 34.75 | 61.90 | 110.16 | 196.22 | 349.51 | 622.54 | 1,108.87 | 1,975.10 | 3,518.01 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-01-31 | $110.74 | 4.97% | $120.76 | 9.05% |
| 2019 | 2019-01-31 | $73.00 | 10.74% | $88.27 | 20.92% |
| 2018 | 2018-01-31 | $75.22 | 13.60% | $194.88 | 159.08% |
| 2017 | 2017-01-31 | $64.48 | 12.55% | $155.07 | 140.49% |
| 2016 | 2016-01-31 | $72.83 | 10.22% | $149.81 | 105.70% |
| 2015 | 2015-01-31 | $73.61 | 6.95% | $68.45 | -7.01% |
| 2014 | 2014-01-31 | $56.64 | 5.61% | $74.05 | 30.74% |
| 2013 | 2013-01-31 | $60.41 | 3.86% | $29.89 | -50.52% |
| 2012 | 2012-01-31 | $50.81 | 1.96% | $2.37 | -95.34% |
| 2011 | 2011-01-31 | $54.83 | 2.91% | $53.33 | -2.73% |
| 2010 | 2010-01-31 | $51.09 | 4.99% | $81.69 | 59.89% |
| 2009 | 2009-01-31 | $31.20 | 6.92% | $-0.33 | -101.05% |
| 2008 | 2008-01-31 | $55.42 | 7.30% | $-23.27 | -142.00% |
| 2007 | 2007-01-31 | $61.36 | 7.33% | $11.69 | -80.95% |
| 2006 | 2006-01-31 | $54.75 | 7.47% | $15.73 | -71.27% |
| 2005 | 2005-01-31 | $50.77 | 9.52% | $-4.89 | -109.62% |
| 2004 | 2004-01-31 | $37.96 | 12.01% | $-6.29 | -116.57% |
| 2003 | 2003-01-31 | $28.21 | 12.03% | $-56.59 | -300.61% |
| 2002 | 2002-01-31 | $44.41 | 9.41% | $-31.13 | -170.09% |
| 2001 | 2001-01-31 | $37.98 | 11.03% | $-23.42 | -161.66% |
| 2000 | 2000-01-31 | $32.94 | 7.63% | $2.43 | -92.63% |
| 1999 | 1999-01-31 | $31.69 | 6.46% | $-2.68 | -108.47% |
| 1998 | 1998-01-31 | $17.98 | 5.89% | $4.69 | -73.94% |
| 1997 | 1997-01-31 | $9.41 | 3.72% | $-2.27 | -124.10% |
| 1996 | 1996-01-31 | $6.19 | 9.19% | $-14.25 | -330.14% |
| $82.37 - $99.93 | 12 |
| $99.93 - $117.49 | 87 |
| $117.49 - $135.05 | 221 |
| $135.05 - $152.61 | 265 |
| $152.61 - $170.17 | 175 |
| $170.17 - $187.73 | 111 |
| $187.73 - $205.29 | 69 |
| $205.29 - $222.85 | 31 |
| $222.85 - $240.41 | 17 |
| $240.41 - $257.97 | 6 |
| $257.97 - $275.53 | 3 |
| $275.53 - $293.09 | 2 |
| $293.09 - $310.65 | 0 |
| $310.65 - $328.21 | 0 |
| $328.21 - $345.77 | 0 |
| $345.77 - $363.33 | 0 |
| $363.33 - $380.89 | 0 |
| $380.89 - $398.45 | 0 |
| $398.45 - $416.01 | 0 |
| $416.01 - $433.57 | 0 |