Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $236.00 |
| 5Y Range | 899.66 – 1,827.85 |
| 5Y Selected | 1,363.75 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 59.09% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $601.42 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 154.84% |
| 10Y Range | 958.52 – 1,897.58 |
| 10Y Selected | 1,428.05 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 59.09% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $629.77 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 166.85% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0002 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.3476 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5030 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8492 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.3752 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8892 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1533 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.6888 |
| Safety Score | 0.4410 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.67% | 4.59% | 4.52% | 4.45% | 4.37% | 4.30% | 4.22% | 4.15% | 4.07% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,509.72 | 1,579.08 | 1,650.45 | 1,723.83 | 1,799.19 | 1,876.50 | 1,955.74 | 2,036.88 | 2,119.87 | 2,204.66 |
| EBITDA | 137.99 | 144.33 | 150.86 | 157.56 | 164.45 | 171.52 | 178.76 | 186.18 | 193.76 | 201.51 |
| D&A | -29.21 | -30.55 | -31.93 | -33.35 | -34.81 | -36.31 | -37.84 | -39.41 | -41.02 | -42.66 |
| EBIT | 108.78 | 113.78 | 118.92 | 124.21 | 129.64 | 135.21 | 140.92 | 146.77 | 152.74 | 158.85 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -26.63 | -27.85 | -29.11 | -30.40 | -31.73 | -33.10 | -34.49 | -35.93 | -37.39 | -38.89 |
| NOPAT | 82.15 | 85.93 | 89.81 | 93.80 | 97.90 | 102.11 | 106.42 | 110.84 | 115.36 | 119.97 |
| Capital Expenditures | -11.30 | -11.82 | -12.36 | -12.91 | -13.47 | -14.05 | -14.64 | -15.25 | -15.87 | -16.51 |
| NWC Investment | 2.13 | 2.19 | 2.25 | 2.32 | 2.38 | 2.44 | 2.50 | 2.56 | 2.62 | 2.68 |
| (+) D&A | 29.21 | 30.55 | 31.93 | 33.35 | 34.81 | 36.31 | 37.84 | 39.41 | 41.02 | 42.66 |
| Free Cash Flow | 102.19 | 106.85 | 111.64 | 116.57 | 121.63 | 126.81 | 132.12 | 137.56 | 143.12 | 148.80 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,879,215.00 | 2,879,215.00 | 2,879,215.00 | 2,879,215.00 | 2,879,215.00 | 2,879,215.00 | 2,879,215.00 | 2,879,215.00 | 2,879,215.00 | 2,879,215.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 101.54 | 103.79 | 101.82 | 99.81 | 97.77 | 95.70 | 93.61 | 91.51 | 89.38 | 87.24 | Raw: 3,290.48 2,562.88 |
Raw: 4,025.59 2,287.00 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,067.61 | 3,249.18 |
| (-) Net Debt | -331.15 | -331.15 |
| Equity Value | 3,398.75 | 3,580.33 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2.88 | 2.88 |
| Fair Value | $1,180.44 | $1,243.51 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 59.09% | 59.09% |
| Buy Price | $482.92 | $508.72 |
| Current Price | $236.00 | $236.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 104.63% | 115.56% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 101.45 | 103.35 | 100.44 | 97.54 | 94.66 | 91.80 | 88.96 | 86.15 | 83.36 | 80.61 | Raw: 2,347.15 1,761.73 |
Raw: 2,871.53 1,500.33 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,259.16 | 2,428.64 |
| (-) Net Debt | -331.15 | -331.15 |
| Equity Value | 2,590.31 | 2,759.78 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2.88 | 2.88 |
| Fair Value | $899.66 | $958.52 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 59.09% | 59.09% |
| Buy Price | $368.05 | $392.13 |
| Current Price | $236.00 | $236.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 55.95% | 66.16% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 101.64 | 104.24 | 103.23 | 102.15 | 101.01 | 99.82 | 98.56 | 97.26 | 95.90 | 94.49 | Raw: 5,465.96 4,419.36 |
Raw: 6,687.10 4,134.09 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,931.63 | 5,132.39 |
| (-) Net Debt | -331.15 | -331.15 |
| Equity Value | 5,262.77 | 5,463.53 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2.88 | 2.88 |
| Fair Value | $1,827.85 | $1,897.58 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 59.09% | 59.09% |
| Buy Price | $747.77 | $776.30 |
| Current Price | $236.00 | $236.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 216.85% | 228.94% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 4,259.35 | 6,671.87 | 10,450.86 | 16,370.30 | 25,642.53 | 40,166.63 | 62,917.26 | 98,553.98 | 154,375.57 | 241,814.86 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 56.64% | 56.64% | 56.64% | 56.64% | 56.64% | 56.64% | 56.64% | 56.64% | 56.64% | 56.64% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.43 | 0.67 | 1.05 | 1.64 | 2.56 | 4.02 | 6.29 | 9.86 | 15.44 | 24.18 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.41 | 0.57 | 0.84 | 1.24 | 1.82 | 2.67 | 3.93 | 5.78 | 8.50 | 12.50 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $159.00 | 1.16% | $290.22 | 82.53% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $121.00 | 9.17% | $339.12 | 180.26% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $136.00 | 18.50% | $279.92 | 105.82% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $112.95 | 9.87% | $244.80 | 116.73% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $90.50 | 2.64% | $163.79 | 80.98% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $59.75 | 2.91% | $81.48 | 36.36% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $52.90 | 1.24% | $100.02 | 89.08% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $45.00 | -2.62% | $82.54 | 83.41% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $53.00 | -6.88% | $74.40 | 40.37% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $69.00 | -6.05% | $141.64 | 105.28% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $49.00 | -8.98% | $-20.62 | -142.08% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $77.50 | -6.05% | $33.92 | -56.23% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $129.50 | -15.03% | $-7.33 | -105.66% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $152.00 | -18.56% | $-65.22 | -142.91% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $148.50 | -13.74% | $-83.22 | -156.04% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $207.50 | -9.26% | $130.98 | -36.88% |
| $711.55 - $1,460.61 | 741 |
| $1,460.61 - $2,209.67 | 214 |
| $2,209.67 - $2,958.73 | 28 |
| $2,958.73 - $3,707.79 | 10 |
| $3,707.79 - $4,456.86 | 3 |
| $4,456.86 - $5,205.92 | 0 |
| $5,205.92 - $5,954.98 | 2 |
| $5,954.98 - $6,704.04 | 1 |
| $6,704.04 - $7,453.10 | 0 |
| $7,453.10 - $8,202.16 | 0 |
| $8,202.16 - $8,951.22 | 0 |
| $8,951.22 - $9,700.29 | 0 |
| $9,700.29 - $10,449.35 | 0 |
| $10,449.35 - $11,198.41 | 0 |
| $11,198.41 - $11,947.47 | 0 |
| $11,947.47 - $12,696.53 | 0 |
| $12,696.53 - $13,445.59 | 0 |
| $13,445.59 - $14,194.65 | 0 |
| $14,194.65 - $14,943.72 | 0 |
| $14,943.72 - $15,692.78 | 1 |