Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $57.44 |
| 5Y Range | 28.68 – 44.60 |
| 5Y Selected | 36.64 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.46% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $8.63 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.98% |
| 10Y Range | 32.48 – 49.31 |
| 10Y Selected | 40.89 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.46% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $9.63 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.24% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8429 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9628 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1752 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1373 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0651 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.2756 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4141 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5867 |
| Safety Score | 0.2354 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.51% | 8.01% | 7.50% | 7.00% | 6.50% | 6.00% | 5.50% | 5.00% | 4.50% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,323.38 | 1,429.33 | 1,536.60 | 1,644.22 | 1,751.16 | 1,856.28 | 1,958.41 | 2,056.36 | 2,148.91 | 2,234.87 |
| EBITDA | 427.00 | 461.18 | 495.79 | 530.52 | 565.02 | 598.94 | 631.89 | 663.50 | 693.36 | 721.09 |
| D&A | -128.52 | -138.81 | -149.23 | -159.68 | -170.06 | -180.27 | -190.19 | -199.70 | -208.69 | -217.04 |
| EBIT | 298.48 | 322.37 | 346.57 | 370.84 | 394.96 | 418.67 | 441.70 | 463.79 | 484.67 | 504.06 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -45.91 | -49.58 | -53.30 | -57.04 | -60.75 | -64.39 | -67.93 | -71.33 | -74.54 | -77.52 |
| NOPAT | 252.57 | 272.79 | 293.26 | 313.80 | 334.21 | 354.28 | 373.77 | 392.46 | 410.13 | 426.53 |
| Capital Expenditures | -53.41 | -57.68 | -62.01 | -66.36 | -70.67 | -74.91 | -79.04 | -82.99 | -86.72 | -90.19 |
| NWC Investment | -26.09 | -26.64 | -26.97 | -27.06 | -26.89 | -26.43 | -25.68 | -24.63 | -23.27 | -21.61 |
| (+) D&A | 128.52 | 138.81 | 149.23 | 159.68 | 170.06 | 180.27 | 190.19 | 199.70 | 208.69 | 217.04 |
| Free Cash Flow | 301.59 | 327.27 | 353.50 | 380.06 | 406.71 | 433.20 | 459.24 | 484.54 | 508.82 | 531.76 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 157,711,250.00 | 157,711,250.00 | 157,711,250.00 | 157,711,250.00 | 157,711,250.00 | 157,711,250.00 | 157,711,250.00 | 157,711,250.00 | 157,711,250.00 | 157,711,250.00 |
| Metric | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 | Jun-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 7/1/26 | 7/1/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/1/29 | 7/1/30 | 7/1/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/1/33 | 7/1/34 |
| Period End | 6/30/26 | 6/30/27 | 6/30/28 | 6/30/29 | 6/30/30 | 6/30/31 | 6/30/32 | 6/30/33 | 6/30/34 | 6/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 2/13/26 | 12/30/26 | 12/30/27 | 12/30/28 | 12/30/29 | 12/30/30 | 12/30/31 | 12/30/32 | 12/30/33 | 12/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.95 | 1.95 | 2.96 | 3.96 | 4.96 | 5.96 | 6.96 | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | ||
| PV UFCF | 298.98 | 301.29 | 298.30 | 293.71 | 288.09 | 281.27 | 273.31 | 264.32 | 254.41 | 243.71 | Raw: 6,299.41 4,272.06 |
Raw: 8,236.18 3,613.92 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,752.43 | 6,411.31 |
| (-) Net Debt | 257.95 | 257.95 |
| Equity Value | 5,494.48 | 6,153.37 |
| (/) Shares Out | 157.71 | 157.71 |
| Fair Value | $34.84 | $39.02 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.46% | 76.46% |
| Buy Price | $8.20 | $9.18 |
| Current Price | $57.44 | $57.44 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -85.72% | -84.01% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.91 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.42 | ||
| PV UFCF | 298.71 | 298.69 | 293.04 | 285.88 | 277.87 | 268.82 | 258.84 | 248.06 | 236.59 | 224.58 | Raw: 5,110.18 3,327.36 |
Raw: 6,681.32 2,689.24 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,781.55 | 5,380.31 |
| (-) Net Debt | 257.95 | 257.95 |
| Equity Value | 4,523.60 | 5,122.37 |
| (/) Shares Out | 157.71 | 157.71 |
| Fair Value | $28.68 | $32.48 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.46% | 76.46% |
| Buy Price | $6.75 | $7.65 |
| Current Price | $57.44 | $57.44 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.25% | -86.69% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 299.25 | 303.94 | 303.70 | 301.82 | 298.79 | 294.41 | 288.73 | 281.81 | 273.76 | 264.67 | Raw: 8,185.91 5,784.16 |
Raw: 10,702.69 5,123.63 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,291.67 | 8,034.53 |
| (-) Net Debt | 257.95 | 257.95 |
| Equity Value | 7,033.73 | 7,776.58 |
| (/) Shares Out | 157.71 | 157.71 |
| Fair Value | $44.60 | $49.31 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.46% | 76.46% |
| Buy Price | $10.50 | $11.61 |
| Current Price | $57.44 | $57.44 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.72% | -79.79% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 3,084.90 | 7,821.46 | 19,830.53 | 50,278.32 | 127,475.68 | 323,201.89 | 819,446.20 | 2,077,624.21 | 5,267,609.22 | 13,355,498.48 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 153.54% | 153.54% | 153.54% | 153.54% | 153.54% | 153.54% | 153.54% | 153.54% | 153.54% | 153.54% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.31 | 0.78 | 1.98 | 5.03 | 12.75 | 32.32 | 81.94 | 207.76 | 526.76 | 1,335.55 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.29 | 0.66 | 1.53 | 3.56 | 8.28 | 19.23 | 44.70 | 103.88 | 241.42 | 561.05 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-06-30 | $66.02 | 5.50% | $17.32 | -73.76% |
| 2019 | 2019-06-30 | $52.32 | 10.23% | $21.44 | -59.02% |
| 2018 | 2018-06-30 | $36.99 | 12.28% | $23.86 | -35.51% |
| 2017 | 2017-06-30 | $29.38 | 12.33% | $20.13 | -31.49% |
| 2016 | 2016-06-30 | $28.19 | 10.50% | $19.67 | -30.23% |
| 2015 | 2015-06-30 | $24.62 | 9.56% | $17.85 | -27.49% |
| 2014 | 2014-06-30 | $23.14 | 11.23% | $22.32 | -3.53% |
| 2013 | 2013-06-30 | $17.42 | 13.54% | $19.44 | 11.62% |
| 2012 | 2012-06-30 | $18.55 | 14.89% | $23.83 | 28.47% |
| 2011 | 2011-06-30 | $20.84 | 12.78% | $22.09 | 6.00% |
| 2010 | 2010-06-30 | $14.36 | 10.19% | $17.33 | 20.67% |
| 2009 | 2009-06-30 | $15.95 | 6.65% | $14.98 | -6.09% |
| 2008 | 2008-06-30 | $19.35 | 5.42% | $13.11 | -32.25% |
| 2007 | 2007-06-30 | $14.30 | 6.29% | $11.20 | -21.66% |
| 2006 | 2006-06-30 | $12.73 | 7.35% | $11.21 | -11.92% |
| 2005 | 2005-06-30 | $11.48 | 8.69% | $8.95 | -22.04% |
| 2004 | 2004-06-30 | $10.86 | 11.49% | $9.47 | -12.80% |
| 2003 | 2003-06-30 | $7.59 | 12.78% | $6.22 | -18.00% |
| 2002 | 2002-06-30 | $6.96 | 12.40% | $0.88 | -87.38% |
| 2001 | 2001-06-30 | $8.13 | 12.29% | $6.07 | -25.29% |
| 2000 | 2000-06-30 | $16.25 | 11.47% | $1.25 | -92.31% |
| 1999 | 1999-06-30 | $3.17 | 10.90% | $-0.25 | -107.83% |
| 1998 | 1998-06-30 | $2.38 | 10.89% | $2.92 | 22.51% |
| 1997 | 1997-06-30 | $1.89 | 13.58% | $1.53 | -18.83% |
| 1996 | 1996-06-30 | $1.89 | 14.47% | $0.65 | -65.41% |
| $26.66 - $30.73 | 39 |
| $30.73 - $34.79 | 188 |
| $34.79 - $38.86 | 260 |
| $38.86 - $42.93 | 248 |
| $42.93 - $46.99 | 136 |
| $46.99 - $51.06 | 66 |
| $51.06 - $55.12 | 32 |
| $55.12 - $59.19 | 18 |
| $59.19 - $63.26 | 8 |
| $63.26 - $67.32 | 2 |
| $67.32 - $71.39 | 1 |
| $71.39 - $75.46 | 1 |
| $75.46 - $79.52 | 0 |
| $79.52 - $83.59 | 0 |
| $83.59 - $87.66 | 0 |
| $87.66 - $91.72 | 0 |
| $91.72 - $95.79 | 0 |
| $95.79 - $99.85 | 0 |
| $99.85 - $103.92 | 0 |
| $103.92 - $107.99 | 0 |