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Telekom Austria AG

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$9.83
5Y Range57.10 – 137.28
5Y Selected97.19
(-) Safety Margin42.06%
5Y Buy Price$59.13
Upside (to Buy Price)501.52%
10Y Range60.39 – 139.54
10Y Selected99.96
(-) Safety Margin42.06%
10Y Buy Price$60.82
Upside (to Buy Price)518.70%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9948
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9408
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.7761
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.5790
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.9899
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.9259
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1334
FCF R2 (10Y)0.8252
Safety Score0.6084

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth3.55%3.60%3.65%3.70%3.75%3.80%3.85%3.90%3.95%4.00%
Revenue5,503.515,701.495,909.456,127.986,357.676,599.176,853.177,120.397,401.627,697.69
EBITDA3,203.273,318.503,439.543,566.733,700.423,840.983,988.824,144.364,308.054,480.37
D&A-1,144.13-1,185.29-1,228.52-1,273.95-1,321.70-1,371.91-1,424.71-1,480.26-1,538.73-1,600.28
EBIT2,059.142,133.212,211.022,292.782,378.722,469.082,564.112,664.092,769.322,880.09
Pro forma Taxes-388.16-402.12-416.79-432.20-448.40-465.43-483.35-502.20-522.03-542.91
NOPAT1,670.981,731.091,794.231,860.581,930.322,003.642,080.762,161.902,247.292,337.18
Capital Expenditures-1,002.65-1,038.71-1,076.60-1,116.41-1,158.26-1,202.26-1,248.53-1,297.22-1,348.45-1,402.39
NWC Investment17.2118.0718.9919.9520.9722.0523.1924.4025.6827.03
(+) D&A1,144.131,185.291,228.521,273.951,321.701,371.911,424.711,480.261,538.731,600.28
Free Cash Flow1,829.671,895.741,965.142,038.072,114.732,195.342,280.132,369.342,463.242,562.10
Diluted Shares Outstanding664,084,841.00664,084,841.00664,084,841.00664,084,841.00664,084,841.00664,084,841.00664,084,841.00664,084,841.00664,084,841.00664,084,841.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.66%Terminal Growth: 3.09%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.850.800.750.700.660.620.58
PV UFCF1,817.911,840.311,788.521,739.031,691.731,646.521,603.291,561.951,522.421,484.61
Raw: 60,985.98
47,239.04
Raw: 73,887.43
41,455.28

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value56,116.5658,151.59
(-) Net Debt2,742.982,742.98
Equity Value53,373.5855,408.61
(/) Shares Out664.08664.08
Fair Value$80.37$83.44
(-) Safety Margin42.06%42.06%
Buy Price$46.57$48.34
Current Price$9.83$9.83
Upside (to Buy Price)373.73%391.79%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.66%Terminal Growth: 2.59%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.830.770.720.670.620.580.54
PV UFCF1,816.221,832.431,764.321,699.571,637.991,579.401,523.651,470.581,420.041,371.91
Raw: 42,750.95
31,913.04
Raw: 51,794.82
26,729.05

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value40,663.5642,845.15
(-) Net Debt2,742.982,742.98
Equity Value37,920.5840,102.17
(/) Shares Out664.08664.08
Fair Value$57.10$60.39
(-) Safety Margin42.06%42.06%
Buy Price$33.08$34.99
Current Price$9.83$9.83
Upside (to Buy Price)236.57%255.93%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.66%Terminal Growth: 3.59%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.870.830.780.740.700.660.63
PV UFCF1,819.621,848.311,813.291,779.801,747.781,717.171,687.911,659.951,633.251,607.76
Raw: 105,589.38
84,896.77
Raw: 127,926.60
78,095.20

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value93,905.5795,410.03
(-) Net Debt2,742.982,742.98
Equity Value91,162.5992,667.05
(/) Shares Out664.08664.08
Fair Value$137.28$139.54
(-) Safety Margin42.06%42.06%
Buy Price$79.54$80.85
Current Price$9.83$9.83
Upside (to Buy Price)709.13%722.48%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$9.83
WACC Used6.7%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH104.83%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue11,095.8622,728.0946,554.8495,360.14195,329.98400,102.18819,545.231,678,707.143,438,562.737,043,345.04
Constant Implied Growth104.83%104.83%104.83%104.83%104.83%104.83%104.83%104.83%104.83%104.83%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.112.274.669.5419.5340.0181.95167.87343.86704.33
Discount Factor0.960.850.800.750.700.660.620.580.540.51
Present Value of Implied FCF1.061.943.727.1513.7326.3850.6597.27186.80358.73

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$6.014.49%$10.8981.27%
20182018-12-31$5.573.83%$8.2648.28%
20172017-12-31$6.472.49%$8.3529.13%
20162016-12-31$4.751.79%$5.7621.32%
20152015-12-31$4.161.60%$4.6612.09%
20142014-12-31$4.562.60%$-0.40-108.78%
20132013-12-31$4.55-4.70%$-26.06-672.74%
20122012-12-31$4.84-9.18%$-0.04-100.76%
20112011-12-31$7.66-10.63%$1.85-75.91%
20102010-12-31$8.69-8.82%$6.03-30.67%
20092009-12-31$8.22-3.11%$11.4138.79%
20082008-12-31$8.51-4.06%$12.4045.67%
20072007-12-31$15.93-4.86%$14.05-11.80%
20062006-12-31$17.24-2.62%$9.14-46.98%
20052005-12-31$14.671.39%$19.0830.07%
20042004-12-31$10.775.90%$21.88103.13%
20032003-12-31$7.579.54%$21.48183.80%
20022002-12-31$7.456.20%$16.39120.05%
20012001-12-31$7.196.48%$6.65-7.49%
20002000-12-31$4.6311.40%$10.82133.74%
19991999-12-31$6.9012.41%$18.36166.14%
19981998-12-31$6.9010.69%$47.66590.66%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$94.38
Median
$83.47
10th Percentile
$60.72
90th Percentile
$135.44

Fair Value Distribution

$23.13 - $55.31
40
$55.31 - $87.50
523
$87.50 - $119.69
278
$119.69 - $151.88
93
$151.88 - $184.06
33
$184.06 - $216.25
16
$216.25 - $248.44
8
$248.44 - $280.63
2
$280.63 - $312.82
0
$312.82 - $345.00
0
$345.00 - $377.19
2
$377.19 - $409.38
1
$409.38 - $441.57
0
$441.57 - $473.75
1
$473.75 - $505.94
0
$505.94 - $538.13
1
$538.13 - $570.32
1
$570.32 - $602.51
0
$602.51 - $634.69
0
$634.69 - $666.88
1