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SunCoke Energy, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: CoalSector: Energy

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$7.01
5Y Range34.17 – 53.20
5Y Selected43.68
(-) Safety Margin84.51%
5Y Buy Price$6.77
Upside (to Buy Price)-3.47%
10Y Range37.56 – 56.70
10Y Selected47.13
(-) Safety Margin84.51%
10Y Buy Price$7.30
Upside (to Buy Price)4.14%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.7424
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.7032
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.6160
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.1163
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.5055
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.0998
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0326
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1191
Safety Score0.1549

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth5.21%5.07%4.94%4.80%4.67%4.54%4.40%4.27%4.13%4.00%
Revenue2,036.172,139.462,245.122,352.992,462.892,574.612,687.962,802.682,918.553,035.29
EBITDA338.39355.55373.11391.04409.30427.87446.70465.77485.03504.43
D&A-169.42-178.01-186.80-195.78-204.92-214.22-223.65-233.19-242.84-252.55
EBIT168.97177.54186.31195.26204.38213.65223.06232.58242.19251.88
Pro forma Taxes0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
NOPAT168.97177.54186.31195.26204.38213.65223.06232.58242.19251.88
Capital Expenditures-110.76-116.38-122.13-128.00-133.97-140.05-146.22-152.46-158.76-165.11
NWC Investment-6.54-6.70-6.86-7.00-7.13-7.25-7.35-7.44-7.52-7.57
(+) D&A169.42178.01186.80195.78204.92214.22223.65233.19242.84252.55
Free Cash Flow221.09232.47244.13256.04268.20280.57293.13305.87318.75331.74
Diluted Shares Outstanding85,600,000.0085,600,000.0085,600,000.0085,600,000.0085,600,000.0085,600,000.0085,600,000.0085,600,000.0085,600,000.0085,600,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.35%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF219.17223.34214.98206.67198.43190.27182.22174.28166.47158.81
Raw: 4,068.90
2,882.19
Raw: 5,032.96
2,306.67

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value3,944.794,241.31
(-) Net Debt386.38386.38
Equity Value3,558.413,854.93
(/) Shares Out85.6085.60
Fair Value$41.57$45.03
(-) Safety Margin84.51%84.51%
Buy Price$6.44$6.98
Current Price$7.01$7.01
Upside (to Buy Price)-8.14%-0.49%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.85%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF218.97222.41212.14202.09192.26182.68173.36164.30155.52147.01
Raw: 3,312.52
2,263.14
Raw: 4,097.36
1,730.46

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value3,311.013,601.19
(-) Net Debt386.38386.38
Equity Value2,924.633,214.82
(/) Shares Out85.6085.60
Fair Value$34.17$37.56
(-) Safety Margin84.51%84.51%
Buy Price$5.29$5.82
Current Price$7.01$7.01
Upside (to Buy Price)-24.50%-17.01%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.85%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF219.37224.29217.89211.41204.85198.25191.61184.96178.31171.67
Raw: 5,257.80
3,862.66
Raw: 6,503.55
3,237.01

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value4,940.485,239.63
(-) Net Debt386.38386.38
Equity Value4,554.104,853.25
(/) Shares Out85.6085.60
Fair Value$53.20$56.70
(-) Safety Margin84.51%84.51%
Buy Price$8.24$8.78
Current Price$7.01$7.01
Upside (to Buy Price)17.56%25.28%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$7.01
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH94.58%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue3,586.316,978.2413,578.2626,420.5851,409.19100,032.04194,642.43378,735.39736,943.611,433,945.46
Constant Implied Growth94.58%94.58%94.58%94.58%94.58%94.58%94.58%94.58%94.58%94.58%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.360.701.362.645.1410.0019.4637.8773.69143.39
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.330.561.001.793.205.7010.1718.1332.3457.67

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$6.2310.24%$12.89106.91%
20182018-12-31$8.556.95%$16.1689.05%
20172017-12-31$11.99-0.75%$4.93-58.84%
20162016-12-31$11.34-6.66%$15.7138.50%
20152015-12-31$3.47-3.36%$-0.47-113.49%
20142014-12-31$19.341.42%$-8.85-145.74%
20132013-12-31$22.810.76%$-5.25-123.00%
20122012-12-31$15.59-3.75%$15.871.79%
20112011-12-31$11.20-8.35%$-28.64-355.71%
20102010-12-31$17.00-3.31%$15.57-8.40%
20092009-12-31$17.003.13%$-6.85-140.32%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$46.08
Median
$45.15
10th Percentile
$37.49
90th Percentile
$56.08

Fair Value Distribution

$30.17 - $32.62
6
$32.62 - $35.06
28
$35.06 - $37.50
67
$37.50 - $39.94
107
$39.94 - $42.39
129
$42.39 - $44.83
140
$44.83 - $47.27
141
$47.27 - $49.71
113
$49.71 - $52.16
90
$52.16 - $54.60
58
$54.60 - $57.04
35
$57.04 - $59.48
31
$59.48 - $61.93
20
$61.93 - $64.37
14
$64.37 - $66.81
7
$66.81 - $69.25
6
$69.25 - $71.70
2
$71.70 - $74.14
3
$74.14 - $76.58
1
$76.58 - $79.02
2