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SW Umwelttechnik Stoiser & Wolschner AG

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Industrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$33.20
5Y Range-7.32 – 120.98
5Y Selected56.83
(-) Safety Margin70.67%
5Y Buy Price$18.14
Upside (to Buy Price)-45.36%
10Y Range0.58 – 130.10
10Y Selected65.34
(-) Safety Margin70.67%
10Y Buy Price$20.86
Upside (to Buy Price)-37.18%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.6345
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8871
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.1819
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.3269
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0015
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.5838
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1278
FCF R2 (10Y)0.4984
Safety Score0.3192

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth4.69%4.61%4.54%4.46%4.38%4.31%4.23%4.15%4.08%4.00%
Revenue122.05127.68133.47139.42145.53151.79158.21164.78171.50178.36
EBITDA19.2620.1521.0722.0122.9723.9624.9726.0127.0728.15
D&A-5.80-6.06-6.34-6.62-6.91-7.21-7.51-7.82-8.14-8.47
EBIT13.4714.0914.7315.3916.0616.7517.4618.1818.9319.68
Pro forma Taxes-2.27-2.37-2.48-2.59-2.70-2.82-2.94-3.06-3.19-3.31
NOPAT11.2011.7212.2512.8013.3613.9314.5215.1215.7416.37
Capital Expenditures-12.93-13.53-14.14-14.77-15.42-16.08-16.76-17.46-18.17-18.89
NWC Investment-0.55-0.56-0.58-0.59-0.61-0.63-0.64-0.66-0.67-0.68
(+) D&A5.806.066.346.626.917.217.517.828.148.47
Free Cash Flow3.523.693.874.054.244.434.634.845.045.26
Diluted Shares Outstanding725,999.00725,999.00725,999.00725,999.00725,999.00725,999.00725,999.00725,999.00725,999.00725,999.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.84%Terminal Growth: 3.05%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.850.800.740.700.650.610.57
PV UFCF3.503.583.513.443.373.303.233.153.083.01
Raw: 115.53
88.91
Raw: 143.30
79.24

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value106.32112.42
(-) Net Debt83.5383.53
Equity Value22.7928.89
(/) Shares Out0.730.73
Fair Value$31.39$39.79
(-) Safety Margin70.67%70.67%
Buy Price$9.21$11.67
Current Price$33.20$33.20
Upside (to Buy Price)-72.27%-64.85%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.84%Terminal Growth: 2.55%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.830.770.710.660.610.570.53
PV UFCF3.503.573.473.373.273.173.072.972.872.78
Raw: 82.32
61.06
Raw: 102.11
51.94

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value78.2283.95
(-) Net Debt83.5383.53
Equity Value-5.310.42
(/) Shares Out0.730.73
Fair Value$-7.32$0.58
(-) Safety Margin70.67%70.67%
Buy Price$-2.15$0.17
Current Price$33.20$33.20
Upside (to Buy Price)-106.47%-99.49%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.84%Terminal Growth: 3.55%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.870.820.780.730.690.650.62
PV UFCF3.503.603.563.523.483.443.403.353.303.25
Raw: 192.40
153.69
Raw: 238.66
143.57

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value171.36177.99
(-) Net Debt83.5383.53
Equity Value87.8394.45
(/) Shares Out0.730.73
Fair Value$120.98$130.10
(-) Safety Margin70.67%70.67%
Buy Price$35.48$38.16
Current Price$33.20$33.20
Upside (to Buy Price)6.88%14.94%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$33.20
WACC Used6.8%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH79.20%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue443.84795.361,425.282,554.094,576.908,201.7714,697.5126,337.8247,197.1784,576.96
Constant Implied Growth79.20%79.20%79.20%79.20%79.20%79.20%79.20%79.20%79.20%79.20%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.040.080.140.260.460.821.472.634.728.46
Discount Factor0.950.850.800.740.700.650.610.570.530.50
Present Value of Implied FCF0.040.070.110.190.320.540.901.512.524.23

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$32.007.74%$-123.48-485.87%
20182018-12-31$10.127.27%$-10.74-206.08%
20172017-12-31$7.446.44%$-11.56-255.40%
20162016-12-31$6.458.29%$-28.55-542.62%
20152015-12-31$6.559.71%$23.96265.81%
20142014-12-31$4.6710.39%$8.9090.53%
20132013-12-31$5.957.57%$24.41310.23%
20122012-12-31$7.715.82%$-90.15-1,269.25%
20112011-12-31$9.566.66%$-24.50-356.28%
20102010-12-31$23.70-0.75%$-14.20-159.92%
20092009-12-31$30.66-9.76%$-107.16-449.52%
20082008-12-31$20.94-9.20%$-206.15-1,084.48%
20072007-12-31$101.34-15.04%$-298.79-394.84%
20062006-12-31$41.67-10.30%$-208.06-599.29%
20052005-12-31$40.14-9.91%$-171.91-528.27%
20042004-12-31$24.76-6.70%$131.37430.55%
20032003-12-31$17.605.05%$-286.53-1,727.99%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$59.67
Median
$39.57
10th Percentile
$0.69
90th Percentile
$128.55

Fair Value Distribution

$-29.74 - $84.87
785
$84.87 - $199.48
181
$199.48 - $314.09
25
$314.09 - $428.69
4
$428.69 - $543.30
0
$543.30 - $657.91
2
$657.91 - $772.51
1
$772.51 - $887.12
0
$887.12 - $1,001.73
0
$1,001.73 - $1,116.33
0
$1,116.33 - $1,230.94
1
$1,230.94 - $1,345.55
0
$1,345.55 - $1,460.16
0
$1,460.16 - $1,574.76
0
$1,574.76 - $1,689.37
0
$1,689.37 - $1,803.98
0
$1,803.98 - $1,918.58
0
$1,918.58 - $2,033.19
0
$2,033.19 - $2,147.80
0
$2,147.80 - $2,262.40
1