| Current Price | $33.20 |
| 5Y Range | -7.32 – 120.98 |
| 5Y Selected | 56.83 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.67% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $18.14 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -45.36% |
| 10Y Range | 0.58 – 130.10 |
| 10Y Selected | 65.34 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.67% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $20.86 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -37.18% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6345 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8871 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1819 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3269 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0015 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.5838 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1278 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.4984 |
| Safety Score | 0.3192 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.69% | 4.61% | 4.54% | 4.46% | 4.38% | 4.31% | 4.23% | 4.15% | 4.08% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 122.05 | 127.68 | 133.47 | 139.42 | 145.53 | 151.79 | 158.21 | 164.78 | 171.50 | 178.36 |
| EBITDA | 19.26 | 20.15 | 21.07 | 22.01 | 22.97 | 23.96 | 24.97 | 26.01 | 27.07 | 28.15 |
| D&A | -5.80 | -6.06 | -6.34 | -6.62 | -6.91 | -7.21 | -7.51 | -7.82 | -8.14 | -8.47 |
| EBIT | 13.47 | 14.09 | 14.73 | 15.39 | 16.06 | 16.75 | 17.46 | 18.18 | 18.93 | 19.68 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -2.27 | -2.37 | -2.48 | -2.59 | -2.70 | -2.82 | -2.94 | -3.06 | -3.19 | -3.31 |
| NOPAT | 11.20 | 11.72 | 12.25 | 12.80 | 13.36 | 13.93 | 14.52 | 15.12 | 15.74 | 16.37 |
| Capital Expenditures | -12.93 | -13.53 | -14.14 | -14.77 | -15.42 | -16.08 | -16.76 | -17.46 | -18.17 | -18.89 |
| NWC Investment | -0.55 | -0.56 | -0.58 | -0.59 | -0.61 | -0.63 | -0.64 | -0.66 | -0.67 | -0.68 |
| (+) D&A | 5.80 | 6.06 | 6.34 | 6.62 | 6.91 | 7.21 | 7.51 | 7.82 | 8.14 | 8.47 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3.52 | 3.69 | 3.87 | 4.05 | 4.24 | 4.43 | 4.63 | 4.84 | 5.04 | 5.26 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 725,999.00 | 725,999.00 | 725,999.00 | 725,999.00 | 725,999.00 | 725,999.00 | 725,999.00 | 725,999.00 | 725,999.00 | 725,999.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3.50 | 3.58 | 3.51 | 3.44 | 3.37 | 3.30 | 3.23 | 3.15 | 3.08 | 3.01 | Raw: 115.53 88.91 |
Raw: 143.30 79.24 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 106.32 | 112.42 |
| (-) Net Debt | 83.53 | 83.53 |
| Equity Value | 22.79 | 28.89 |
| (/) Shares Out | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| Fair Value | $31.39 | $39.79 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.67% | 70.67% |
| Buy Price | $9.21 | $11.67 |
| Current Price | $33.20 | $33.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -72.27% | -64.85% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3.50 | 3.57 | 3.47 | 3.37 | 3.27 | 3.17 | 3.07 | 2.97 | 2.87 | 2.78 | Raw: 82.32 61.06 |
Raw: 102.11 51.94 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 78.22 | 83.95 |
| (-) Net Debt | 83.53 | 83.53 |
| Equity Value | -5.31 | 0.42 |
| (/) Shares Out | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| Fair Value | $-7.32 | $0.58 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.67% | 70.67% |
| Buy Price | $-2.15 | $0.17 |
| Current Price | $33.20 | $33.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -106.47% | -99.49% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3.50 | 3.60 | 3.56 | 3.52 | 3.48 | 3.44 | 3.40 | 3.35 | 3.30 | 3.25 | Raw: 192.40 153.69 |
Raw: 238.66 143.57 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 171.36 | 177.99 |
| (-) Net Debt | 83.53 | 83.53 |
| Equity Value | 87.83 | 94.45 |
| (/) Shares Out | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| Fair Value | $120.98 | $130.10 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.67% | 70.67% |
| Buy Price | $35.48 | $38.16 |
| Current Price | $33.20 | $33.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 6.88% | 14.94% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 443.84 | 795.36 | 1,425.28 | 2,554.09 | 4,576.90 | 8,201.77 | 14,697.51 | 26,337.82 | 47,197.17 | 84,576.96 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 79.20% | 79.20% | 79.20% | 79.20% | 79.20% | 79.20% | 79.20% | 79.20% | 79.20% | 79.20% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.26 | 0.46 | 0.82 | 1.47 | 2.63 | 4.72 | 8.46 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 0.32 | 0.54 | 0.90 | 1.51 | 2.52 | 4.23 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $32.00 | 7.74% | $-123.48 | -485.87% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $10.12 | 7.27% | $-10.74 | -206.08% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $7.44 | 6.44% | $-11.56 | -255.40% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $6.45 | 8.29% | $-28.55 | -542.62% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $6.55 | 9.71% | $23.96 | 265.81% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $4.67 | 10.39% | $8.90 | 90.53% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $5.95 | 7.57% | $24.41 | 310.23% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $7.71 | 5.82% | $-90.15 | -1,269.25% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $9.56 | 6.66% | $-24.50 | -356.28% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $23.70 | -0.75% | $-14.20 | -159.92% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $30.66 | -9.76% | $-107.16 | -449.52% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $20.94 | -9.20% | $-206.15 | -1,084.48% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $101.34 | -15.04% | $-298.79 | -394.84% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $41.67 | -10.30% | $-208.06 | -599.29% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $40.14 | -9.91% | $-171.91 | -528.27% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $24.76 | -6.70% | $131.37 | 430.55% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $17.60 | 5.05% | $-286.53 | -1,727.99% |
| $-29.74 - $84.87 | 785 |
| $84.87 - $199.48 | 181 |
| $199.48 - $314.09 | 25 |
| $314.09 - $428.69 | 4 |
| $428.69 - $543.30 | 0 |
| $543.30 - $657.91 | 2 |
| $657.91 - $772.51 | 1 |
| $772.51 - $887.12 | 0 |
| $887.12 - $1,001.73 | 0 |
| $1,001.73 - $1,116.33 | 0 |
| $1,116.33 - $1,230.94 | 1 |
| $1,230.94 - $1,345.55 | 0 |
| $1,345.55 - $1,460.16 | 0 |
| $1,460.16 - $1,574.76 | 0 |
| $1,574.76 - $1,689.37 | 0 |
| $1,689.37 - $1,803.98 | 0 |
| $1,803.98 - $1,918.58 | 0 |
| $1,918.58 - $2,033.19 | 0 |
| $2,033.19 - $2,147.80 | 0 |
| $2,147.80 - $2,262.40 | 1 |