Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $143.10 |
| 5Y Range | 128.14 – 226.30 |
| 5Y Selected | 177.22 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.52% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $41.61 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -70.92% |
| 10Y Range | 145.54 – 244.73 |
| 10Y Selected | 195.13 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.52% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $45.82 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -67.98% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9742 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9832 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1272 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1906 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1372 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1036 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0228 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.6809 |
| Safety Score | 0.2348 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.86% | 5.65% | 5.44% | 5.24% | 5.03% | 4.83% | 4.62% | 4.41% | 4.21% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 10,805.80 | 11,416.43 | 12,038.00 | 12,668.57 | 13,306.03 | 13,948.11 | 14,592.38 | 15,236.31 | 15,877.20 | 16,512.29 |
| EBITDA | 4,226.00 | 4,464.81 | 4,707.90 | 4,954.50 | 5,203.80 | 5,454.91 | 5,706.88 | 5,958.71 | 6,209.35 | 6,457.73 |
| D&A | -414.51 | -437.93 | -461.78 | -485.97 | -510.42 | -535.05 | -559.76 | -584.46 | -609.05 | -633.41 |
| EBIT | 3,811.49 | 4,026.87 | 4,246.12 | 4,468.54 | 4,693.38 | 4,919.86 | 5,147.11 | 5,374.24 | 5,600.30 | 5,824.31 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -626.18 | -661.56 | -697.58 | -734.12 | -771.06 | -808.27 | -845.61 | -882.92 | -920.06 | -956.86 |
| NOPAT | 3,185.31 | 3,365.31 | 3,548.53 | 3,734.41 | 3,922.32 | 4,111.59 | 4,301.51 | 4,491.32 | 4,680.24 | 4,867.45 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,256.25 | -1,327.24 | -1,399.50 | -1,472.81 | -1,546.92 | -1,621.56 | -1,696.46 | -1,771.32 | -1,845.83 | -1,919.67 |
| NWC Investment | -87.41 | -89.27 | -90.87 | -92.19 | -93.19 | -93.87 | -94.19 | -94.14 | -93.70 | -92.85 |
| (+) D&A | 414.51 | 437.93 | 461.78 | 485.97 | 510.42 | 535.05 | 559.76 | 584.46 | 609.05 | 633.41 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,256.16 | 2,386.73 | 2,519.94 | 2,655.38 | 2,792.63 | 2,931.21 | 3,070.62 | 3,210.32 | 3,349.77 | 3,488.35 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 178,898,750.00 | 178,898,750.00 | 178,898,750.00 | 178,898,750.00 | 178,898,750.00 | 178,898,750.00 | 178,898,750.00 | 178,898,750.00 | 178,898,750.00 | 178,898,750.00 |
| Metric | Feb-26 | Feb-27 | Feb-28 | Feb-29 | Feb-30 | Feb-31 | Feb-32 | Feb-33 | Feb-34 | Feb-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 8/31/25 | 3/1/26 | 3/1/27 | 2/29/28 | 3/1/29 | 3/1/30 | 3/1/31 | 2/29/32 | 3/1/33 | 3/1/34 |
| Period End | 2/28/26 | 2/28/27 | 2/28/28 | 2/28/29 | 2/28/30 | 2/28/31 | 2/28/32 | 2/28/33 | 2/28/34 | 2/28/35 |
| Mid-Point | 11/29/25 | 8/30/26 | 8/30/27 | 8/29/28 | 8/30/29 | 8/30/30 | 8/30/31 | 8/29/32 | 8/30/33 | 8/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.62 | 1.62 | 2.62 | 3.62 | 4.62 | 5.62 | 6.62 | 7.62 | 8.62 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.52 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,236.60 | 2,261.30 | 2,188.40 | 2,113.72 | 2,037.59 | 1,960.35 | 1,882.33 | 1,803.86 | 1,725.24 | 1,646.80 | Raw: 43,324.83 30,264.37 |
Raw: 54,118.25 24,459.90 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 41,101.98 | 44,316.08 |
| (-) Net Debt | 11,388.28 | 11,388.28 |
| Equity Value | 29,713.71 | 32,927.81 |
| (/) Shares Out | 178.90 | 178.90 |
| Fair Value | $166.09 | $184.06 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.52% | 76.52% |
| Buy Price | $39.00 | $43.22 |
| Current Price | $143.10 | $143.10 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -72.75% | -69.80% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,234.56 | 2,248.54 | 2,156.29 | 2,063.79 | 1,971.39 | 1,879.43 | 1,788.24 | 1,698.12 | 1,609.37 | 1,522.23 | Raw: 35,135.80 23,638.43 |
Raw: 43,889.11 18,252.75 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 34,313.00 | 37,424.72 |
| (-) Net Debt | 11,388.28 | 11,388.28 |
| Equity Value | 22,924.72 | 26,036.44 |
| (/) Shares Out | 178.90 | 178.90 |
| Fair Value | $128.14 | $145.54 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.52% | 76.52% |
| Buy Price | $30.09 | $34.17 |
| Current Price | $143.10 | $143.10 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -78.97% | -76.12% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,238.66 | 2,274.24 | 2,221.29 | 2,165.34 | 2,106.66 | 2,045.55 | 1,982.31 | 1,917.24 | 1,850.65 | 1,782.84 | Raw: 56,324.90 40,866.90 |
Raw: 70,357.00 34,585.20 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 51,873.09 | 55,169.97 |
| (-) Net Debt | 11,388.28 | 11,388.28 |
| Equity Value | 40,484.81 | 43,781.69 |
| (/) Shares Out | 178.90 | 178.90 |
| Fair Value | $226.30 | $244.73 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.52% | 76.52% |
| Buy Price | $53.14 | $57.46 |
| Current Price | $143.10 | $143.10 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -62.87% | -59.84% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 22,696.51 | 53,530.20 | 126,252.06 | 297,768.08 | 702,292.12 | 1,656,370.37 | 3,906,583.49 | 9,213,757.27 | 21,730,835.48 | 51,252,621.12 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 135.85% | 135.85% | 135.85% | 135.85% | 135.85% | 135.85% | 135.85% | 135.85% | 135.85% | 135.85% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 2.27 | 5.35 | 12.63 | 29.78 | 70.23 | 165.64 | 390.66 | 921.38 | 2,173.08 | 5,125.26 |
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 2.20 | 4.65 | 10.05 | 21.73 | 46.97 | 101.54 | 219.51 | 474.54 | 1,025.88 | 2,217.78 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-02-29 | $172.38 | 6.09% | $122.09 | -29.17% |
| 2019 | 2019-02-28 | $169.16 | 5.08% | $63.06 | -62.72% |
| 2018 | 2018-02-28 | $215.48 | 3.35% | $26.35 | -87.77% |
| 2017 | 2017-02-28 | $158.81 | 4.02% | $25.55 | -83.91% |
| 2016 | 2016-02-29 | $141.43 | 5.24% | $9.56 | -93.24% |
| 2015 | 2015-02-28 | $114.72 | 7.09% | $1.09 | -99.05% |
| 2014 | 2014-02-28 | $81.03 | 7.75% | $30.40 | -62.49% |
| 2013 | 2013-02-28 | $44.24 | 9.81% | $45.86 | 3.66% |
| 2012 | 2012-02-29 | $21.84 | 20.02% | $106.05 | 385.56% |
| 2011 | 2011-02-28 | $20.32 | 25.98% | $93.53 | 360.28% |
| 2010 | 2010-02-28 | $15.26 | 20.64% | $30.17 | 97.72% |
| 2009 | 2009-02-28 | $13.05 | 10.34% | $20.42 | 56.45% |
| 2008 | 2008-02-29 | $19.21 | -3.43% | $-1.77 | -109.20% |
| 2007 | 2007-02-28 | $23.46 | -6.35% | $-12.17 | -151.88% |
| 2006 | 2006-02-28 | $26.34 | -8.66% | $1.25 | -95.27% |
| 2005 | 2005-02-28 | $26.77 | -9.35% | $-6.03 | -122.54% |
| 2004 | 2004-02-29 | $15.82 | -4.33% | $4.47 | -71.73% |
| 2003 | 2003-02-28 | $12.32 | 1.38% | $7.67 | -37.75% |
| 2002 | 2002-02-28 | $13.59 | 9.78% | $-52.58 | -486.94% |
| 2001 | 2001-02-28 | $7.98 | 6.90% | $-4.01 | -150.25% |
| 2000 | 2000-02-29 | $6.13 | 3.68% | $-53.04 | -965.18% |
| 1999 | 1999-02-28 | $6.21 | 1.08% | $-35.78 | -676.16% |
| 1998 | 1998-02-28 | $6.97 | 8.14% | $-3.18 | -145.65% |
| 1997 | 1997-02-28 | $3.84 | 18.84% | $13.49 | 251.35% |
| 1996 | 1996-02-29 | $4.75 | 22.84% | $-28.06 | -690.81% |
| $97.17 - $111.69 | 4 |
| $111.69 - $126.20 | 17 |
| $126.20 - $140.72 | 62 |
| $140.72 - $155.23 | 114 |
| $155.23 - $169.75 | 161 |
| $169.75 - $184.27 | 167 |
| $184.27 - $198.78 | 136 |
| $198.78 - $213.30 | 92 |
| $213.30 - $227.81 | 86 |
| $227.81 - $242.33 | 52 |
| $242.33 - $256.85 | 32 |
| $256.85 - $271.36 | 32 |
| $271.36 - $285.88 | 14 |
| $285.88 - $300.40 | 13 |
| $300.40 - $314.91 | 9 |
| $314.91 - $329.43 | 3 |
| $329.43 - $343.94 | 2 |
| $343.94 - $358.46 | 0 |
| $358.46 - $372.98 | 2 |
| $372.98 - $387.49 | 2 |