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Vinci S.A.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$120.95
5Y Range342.80 – 771.80
5Y Selected557.30
(-) Safety Margin52.42%
5Y Buy Price$284.06
Upside (to Buy Price)134.85%
10Y Range384.23 – 833.23
10Y Selected608.73
(-) Safety Margin52.42%
10Y Buy Price$310.27
Upside (to Buy Price)156.53%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9634
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8571
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.8926
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.4995
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.9626
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.7449
FCF R2 (5Y)0.9556
FCF R2 (10Y)0.8876
Safety Score0.5097

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth9.14%8.57%8.00%7.43%6.86%6.28%5.71%5.14%4.57%4.00%
Revenue79,418.7086,223.7193,119.42100,034.84106,892.56113,609.97120,100.73126,276.47132,048.65137,330.59
EBITDA15,346.1216,661.0517,993.5119,329.7820,654.9021,952.9123,207.1324,400.4725,515.8326,536.46
D&A-4,537.57-4,926.37-5,320.36-5,715.47-6,107.28-6,491.08-6,861.93-7,214.78-7,544.57-7,846.35
EBIT10,808.5511,734.6812,673.1613,614.3214,547.6215,461.8316,345.2017,185.6917,971.2618,690.11
Pro forma Taxes-3,388.62-3,678.98-3,973.20-4,268.27-4,560.87-4,847.49-5,124.44-5,387.94-5,634.23-5,859.60
NOPAT7,419.928,055.708,699.959,346.059,986.7510,614.3411,220.7611,797.7512,337.0312,830.51
Capital Expenditures-3,245.51-3,523.60-3,805.40-4,088.00-4,368.25-4,642.76-4,908.01-5,160.39-5,396.27-5,612.12
NWC Investment783.48801.66812.34814.66807.86791.34764.64727.53679.98622.23
(+) D&A4,537.574,926.375,320.365,715.476,107.286,491.086,861.937,214.787,544.577,846.35
Free Cash Flow9,495.4610,260.1311,027.2511,788.1712,533.6413,253.9913,939.3114,579.6615,165.3115,686.97
Diluted Shares Outstanding574,620,612.75574,620,612.75574,620,612.75574,620,612.75574,620,612.75574,620,612.75574,620,612.75574,620,612.75574,620,612.75574,620,612.75

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.42%Terminal Growth: 2.43%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF9,436.579,976.8510,075.9910,115.2410,106.1710,042.369,924.539,754.289,534.089,267.15
Raw: 321,694.05
251,444.50
Raw: 402,628.70
230,569.41

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value301,155.31328,802.63
(-) Net Debt27,241.9027,241.90
Equity Value273,913.41301,560.72
(/) Shares Out574.62574.62
Fair Value$476.69$524.80
(-) Safety Margin52.42%52.42%
Buy Price$226.81$249.70
Current Price$120.95$120.95
Upside (to Buy Price)87.52%106.45%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.42%Terminal Growth: 1.93%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF9,427.749,934.959,940.269,885.169,784.369,632.079,430.439,182.388,891.548,562.14
Raw: 232,670.29
175,248.71
Raw: 291,207.55
153,357.42

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value224,221.19248,028.46
(-) Net Debt27,241.9027,241.90
Equity Value196,979.29220,786.56
(/) Shares Out574.62574.62
Fair Value$342.80$384.23
(-) Safety Margin52.42%52.42%
Buy Price$163.10$182.82
Current Price$120.95$120.95
Upside (to Buy Price)34.85%51.15%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.42%Terminal Growth: 2.93%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.830.790.750.710.670.64
PV UFCF9,445.4810,019.3310,214.8710,352.9210,441.7610,474.2510,449.5410,367.7210,229.7910,037.71
Raw: 517,942.73
420,259.86
Raw: 648,251.36
403,997.62

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value470,734.22506,030.99
(-) Net Debt27,241.9027,241.90
Equity Value443,492.31478,789.08
(/) Shares Out574.62574.62
Fair Value$771.80$833.23
(-) Safety Margin52.42%52.42%
Buy Price$367.22$396.45
Current Price$120.95$120.95
Upside (to Buy Price)203.62%227.78%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$120.95
WACC Used6.4%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH84.58%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue267,869.84494,440.91912,651.481,684,595.103,109,468.095,739,534.5410,594,177.4619,554,999.6836,095,111.1066,625,265.49
Constant Implied Growth84.58%84.58%84.58%84.58%84.58%84.58%84.58%84.58%84.58%84.58%
Implied Free Cash Flow26.7949.4491.27168.46310.95573.951,059.421,955.503,609.516,662.53
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.710.670.630.590.560.52
Present Value of Implied FCF25.6542.4373.59127.64221.39383.99666.031,155.222,003.713,475.40

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$99.0012.89%$176.5778.35%
20182018-12-31$72.0210.00%$139.2093.28%
20172017-12-31$84.926.51%$96.6513.81%
20162016-12-31$64.703.39%$87.8535.77%
20152015-12-31$59.144.29%$99.5168.25%
20142014-12-31$45.515.73%$73.7161.96%
20132013-12-31$47.722.95%$61.8629.64%
20122012-12-31$35.96-0.25%$26.05-27.56%
20112011-12-31$33.76-1.54%$28.89-14.41%
20102010-12-31$40.68-0.12%$25.53-37.25%
20092009-12-31$39.472.52%$37.19-5.79%
20082008-12-31$30.004.44%$40.9236.39%
20072007-12-31$50.651.25%$14.22-71.92%
20062006-12-31$48.40-0.14%$-19.68-140.65%
20052005-12-31$36.331.46%$-11.57-131.84%
20042004-12-31$12.352.70%$17.6142.58%
20032003-12-31$8.214.21%$38.44368.17%
20022002-12-31$6.724.08%$43.74550.91%
20012001-12-31$8.084.40%$56.70601.67%
20002000-12-31$8.045.10%$47.45490.19%
19991999-12-31$5.82-2.54%$52.00793.50%
19981998-12-31$5.00-3.84%$1.37-72.66%
19971997-12-31$2.980.58%$32.25982.37%
19961996-12-31$2.136.45%$0.85-60.00%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$578.70
Median
$520.29
10th Percentile
$388.16
90th Percentile
$815.70

Fair Value Distribution

$289.16 - $404.11
140
$404.11 - $519.05
358
$519.05 - $634.00
239
$634.00 - $748.94
124
$748.94 - $863.89
55
$863.89 - $978.83
26
$978.83 - $1,093.78
18
$1,093.78 - $1,208.72
13
$1,208.72 - $1,323.67
9
$1,323.67 - $1,438.61
9
$1,438.61 - $1,553.56
5
$1,553.56 - $1,668.50
0
$1,668.50 - $1,783.45
1
$1,783.45 - $1,898.39
0
$1,898.39 - $2,013.34
2
$2,013.34 - $2,128.28
0
$2,128.28 - $2,243.23
0
$2,243.23 - $2,358.17
0
$2,358.17 - $2,473.11
0
$2,473.11 - $2,588.06
1