Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $38.31 |
| 5Y Range | 29.75 – 59.60 |
| 5Y Selected | 44.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.57% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $7.79 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -79.67% |
| 10Y Range | 36.64 – 67.89 |
| 10Y Selected | 52.27 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.57% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $9.11 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.22% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8617 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9185 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1396 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2347 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5253 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.2206 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0093 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0137 |
| Safety Score | 0.1743 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.59% | 5.41% | 5.24% | 5.06% | 4.88% | 4.71% | 4.53% | 4.35% | 4.18% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,545.67 | 1,629.33 | 1,714.64 | 1,801.39 | 1,889.36 | 1,978.27 | 2,067.89 | 2,157.90 | 2,248.03 | 2,337.95 |
| EBITDA | 188.50 | 198.71 | 209.11 | 219.69 | 230.42 | 241.26 | 252.19 | 263.17 | 274.16 | 285.13 |
| D&A | -32.75 | -34.52 | -36.33 | -38.17 | -40.03 | -41.92 | -43.82 | -45.72 | -47.63 | -49.54 |
| EBIT | 155.75 | 164.18 | 172.78 | 181.52 | 190.39 | 199.35 | 208.38 | 217.45 | 226.53 | 235.59 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -46.68 | -49.21 | -51.79 | -54.41 | -57.07 | -59.75 | -62.46 | -65.18 | -67.90 | -70.61 |
| NOPAT | 109.07 | 114.97 | 120.99 | 127.11 | 133.32 | 139.60 | 145.92 | 152.27 | 158.63 | 164.98 |
| Capital Expenditures | -31.18 | -32.87 | -34.59 | -36.34 | -38.11 | -39.91 | -41.72 | -43.53 | -45.35 | -47.16 |
| NWC Investment | -26.61 | -27.21 | -27.75 | -28.22 | -28.61 | -28.92 | -29.15 | -29.28 | -29.32 | -29.25 |
| (+) D&A | 32.75 | 34.52 | 36.33 | 38.17 | 40.03 | 41.92 | 43.82 | 45.72 | 47.63 | 49.54 |
| Free Cash Flow | 84.03 | 89.41 | 94.98 | 100.73 | 106.63 | 112.68 | 118.87 | 125.18 | 131.60 | 138.10 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 22,400,272.25 | 22,400,272.25 | 22,400,272.25 | 22,400,272.25 | 22,400,272.25 | 22,400,272.25 | 22,400,272.25 | 22,400,272.25 | 22,400,272.25 | 22,400,272.25 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 83.30 | 85.90 | 83.64 | 81.30 | 78.89 | 76.42 | 73.89 | 71.33 | 68.73 | 66.11 | Raw: 1,645.65 1,165.69 |
Raw: 2,131.39 976.84 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,578.73 | 1,746.35 |
| (-) Net Debt | 653.48 | 653.48 |
| Equity Value | 925.25 | 1,092.87 |
| (/) Shares Out | 22.40 | 22.40 |
| Fair Value | $41.31 | $48.79 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.57% | 82.57% |
| Buy Price | $7.20 | $8.50 |
| Current Price | $38.31 | $38.31 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.20% | -77.80% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 83.22 | 85.54 | 82.54 | 79.50 | 76.44 | 73.37 | 70.30 | 67.24 | 64.21 | 61.20 | Raw: 1,335.80 912.63 |
Raw: 1,730.08 730.67 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,319.87 | 1,474.23 |
| (-) Net Debt | 653.48 | 653.48 |
| Equity Value | 666.39 | 820.75 |
| (/) Shares Out | 22.40 | 22.40 |
| Fair Value | $29.75 | $36.64 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.57% | 82.57% |
| Buy Price | $5.19 | $6.39 |
| Current Price | $38.31 | $38.31 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.46% | -83.33% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 83.37 | 86.27 | 84.78 | 83.17 | 81.44 | 79.62 | 77.70 | 75.70 | 73.62 | 71.47 | Raw: 2,136.39 1,569.51 |
Raw: 2,766.98 1,377.21 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,988.54 | 2,174.34 |
| (-) Net Debt | 653.48 | 653.48 |
| Equity Value | 1,335.05 | 1,520.85 |
| (/) Shares Out | 22.40 | 22.40 |
| Fair Value | $59.60 | $67.89 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.57% | 82.57% |
| Buy Price | $10.39 | $11.83 |
| Current Price | $38.31 | $38.31 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -72.88% | -69.11% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 3,574.44 | 7,303.34 | 14,922.27 | 30,489.38 | 62,296.29 | 127,284.58 | 260,069.50 | 531,377.36 | 1,085,717.07 | 2,218,351.11 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 104.32% | 104.32% | 104.32% | 104.32% | 104.32% | 104.32% | 104.32% | 104.32% | 104.32% | 104.32% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.36 | 0.73 | 1.49 | 3.05 | 6.23 | 12.73 | 26.01 | 53.14 | 108.57 | 221.84 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.33 | 0.59 | 1.10 | 2.07 | 3.87 | 7.25 | 13.58 | 25.44 | 47.64 | 89.22 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $53.22 | 6.37% | $50.50 | -5.12% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $48.43 | 6.41% | $42.66 | -11.92% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $44.91 | 6.69% | $33.60 | -25.19% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $53.22 | 3.91% | $58.88 | 10.64% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $38.05 | 1.94% | $32.60 | -14.32% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $38.12 | 3.97% | $23.98 | -37.09% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $36.80 | 3.97% | $35.31 | -4.04% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $22.22 | 3.59% | $61.90 | 178.57% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $20.05 | 2.22% | $44.04 | 119.63% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $13.70 | 2.38% | $10.43 | -23.90% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $8.52 | 4.59% | $87.04 | 921.62% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $3.46 | 3.83% | $22.99 | 564.41% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $8.16 | -0.06% | $-30.71 | -476.37% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $14.98 | -3.64% | $4.68 | -68.74% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $9.23 | -5.37% | $-19.39 | -310.05% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $15.80 | -2.84% | $-15.15 | -195.87% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $12.15 | -0.33% | $8.64 | -28.91% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $13.00 | 0.19% | $52.93 | 307.15% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $13.90 | -2.59% | $13.26 | -4.60% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $7.38 | -5.52% | $-33.82 | -558.29% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $16.13 | -5.44% | $-16.99 | -205.32% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $24.06 | -3.17% | $68.84 | 186.13% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $22.56 | 0.55% | $48.95 | 117.00% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $13.88 | 4.12% | $-78.28 | -664.00% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $15.00 | 0.13% | $-40.82 | -372.16% |
| $26.16 - $31.14 | 20 |
| $31.14 - $36.11 | 70 |
| $36.11 - $41.09 | 135 |
| $41.09 - $46.06 | 160 |
| $46.06 - $51.04 | 158 |
| $51.04 - $56.02 | 139 |
| $56.02 - $60.99 | 116 |
| $60.99 - $65.97 | 65 |
| $65.97 - $70.94 | 47 |
| $70.94 - $75.92 | 34 |
| $75.92 - $80.89 | 20 |
| $80.89 - $85.87 | 7 |
| $85.87 - $90.85 | 12 |
| $90.85 - $95.82 | 5 |
| $95.82 - $100.80 | 3 |
| $100.80 - $105.77 | 3 |
| $105.77 - $110.75 | 1 |
| $110.75 - $115.72 | 2 |
| $115.72 - $120.70 | 0 |
| $120.70 - $125.67 | 3 |