Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $2.72 |
| 5Y Range | 4.87 – 8.63 |
| 5Y Selected | 6.75 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.01% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $1.22 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -55.09% |
| 10Y Range | 5.33 – 9.18 |
| 10Y Selected | 7.26 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.01% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1.31 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -51.71% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0997 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.2352 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0476 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0275 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5990 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4993 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0918 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3649 |
| Safety Score | 0.1810 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.83% | 4.73% | 4.64% | 4.55% | 4.46% | 4.37% | 4.28% | 4.18% | 4.09% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 25.42 | 26.62 | 27.86 | 29.13 | 30.42 | 31.75 | 33.11 | 34.50 | 35.91 | 37.34 |
| EBITDA | 19.31 | 20.22 | 21.16 | 22.12 | 23.11 | 24.12 | 25.15 | 26.20 | 27.27 | 28.37 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 19.31 | 20.22 | 21.16 | 22.12 | 23.11 | 24.12 | 25.15 | 26.20 | 27.27 | 28.37 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -3.39 | -3.55 | -3.72 | -3.89 | -4.06 | -4.24 | -4.42 | -4.60 | -4.79 | -4.98 |
| NOPAT | 15.92 | 16.67 | 17.44 | 18.24 | 19.05 | 19.88 | 20.73 | 21.60 | 22.48 | 23.38 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | 0.35 | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 16.26 | 17.03 | 17.81 | 18.61 | 19.44 | 20.28 | 21.14 | 22.01 | 22.90 | 23.81 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 59,840,638.00 | 59,840,638.00 | 59,840,638.00 | 59,840,638.00 | 59,840,638.00 | 59,840,638.00 | 59,840,638.00 | 59,840,638.00 | 59,840,638.00 | 59,840,638.00 |
| Metric | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 | Jun-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 7/1/26 | 7/1/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/1/29 | 7/1/30 | 7/1/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/1/33 | 7/1/34 |
| Period End | 6/30/26 | 6/30/27 | 6/30/28 | 6/30/29 | 6/30/30 | 6/30/31 | 6/30/32 | 6/30/33 | 6/30/34 | 6/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/29/25 | 12/30/26 | 12/30/27 | 12/30/28 | 12/30/29 | 12/30/30 | 12/30/31 | 12/30/32 | 12/30/33 | 12/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.95 | 1.95 | 2.96 | 3.96 | 4.96 | 5.96 | 6.96 | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 16.15 | 15.95 | 15.57 | 15.18 | 14.80 | 14.41 | 14.02 | 13.63 | 13.24 | 12.85 | Raw: 396.14 291.40 |
Raw: 485.28 253.00 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 369.05 | 398.80 |
| (-) Net Debt | -1.25 | -1.25 |
| Equity Value | 370.30 | 400.05 |
| (/) Shares Out | 59.84 | 59.84 |
| Fair Value | $6.19 | $6.69 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.01% | 84.01% |
| Buy Price | $0.99 | $1.07 |
| Current Price | $2.72 | $2.72 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -63.62% | -60.70% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 16.14 | 15.81 | 15.29 | 14.77 | 14.26 | 13.76 | 13.27 | 12.78 | 12.30 | 11.82 | Raw: 303.37 214.10 |
Raw: 371.64 177.45 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 290.37 | 317.64 |
| (-) Net Debt | -1.25 | -1.25 |
| Equity Value | 291.62 | 318.89 |
| (/) Shares Out | 59.84 | 59.84 |
| Fair Value | $4.87 | $5.33 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.01% | 84.01% |
| Buy Price | $0.78 | $0.85 |
| Current Price | $2.72 | $2.72 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -71.35% | -68.67% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 16.17 | 16.09 | 15.86 | 15.61 | 15.36 | 15.10 | 14.83 | 14.55 | 14.27 | 13.97 | Raw: 568.19 435.81 |
Raw: 696.04 396.54 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 514.89 | 548.34 |
| (-) Net Debt | -1.25 | -1.25 |
| Equity Value | 516.15 | 549.59 |
| (/) Shares Out | 59.84 | 59.84 |
| Fair Value | $8.63 | $9.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.01% | 84.01% |
| Buy Price | $1.38 | $1.47 |
| Current Price | $2.72 | $2.72 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -49.29% | -46.01% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 62.81 | 147.65 | 347.10 | 815.97 | 1,918.20 | 4,509.36 | 10,600.74 | 24,920.55 | 58,583.98 | 137,720.97 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 135.08% | 135.08% | 135.08% | 135.08% | 135.08% | 135.08% | 135.08% | 135.08% | 135.08% | 135.08% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 0.45 | 1.06 | 2.49 | 5.86 | 13.77 |
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.30 | 0.66 | 1.44 | 3.16 | 6.94 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-06-30 | $1.95 | 5.19% | $-1.76 | -190.49% |
| $4.36 - $5.01 | 41 |
| $5.01 - $5.66 | 144 |
| $5.66 - $6.31 | 204 |
| $6.31 - $6.96 | 199 |
| $6.96 - $7.61 | 147 |
| $7.61 - $8.26 | 94 |
| $8.26 - $8.91 | 53 |
| $8.91 - $9.56 | 43 |
| $9.56 - $10.21 | 28 |
| $10.21 - $10.86 | 13 |
| $10.86 - $11.51 | 12 |
| $11.51 - $12.16 | 7 |
| $12.16 - $12.81 | 5 |
| $12.81 - $13.46 | 4 |
| $13.46 - $14.11 | 3 |
| $14.11 - $14.76 | 1 |
| $14.76 - $15.41 | 1 |
| $15.41 - $16.06 | 0 |
| $16.06 - $16.71 | 0 |
| $16.71 - $17.36 | 1 |