Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $19.00 |
| 5Y Range | 10.24 – 20.07 |
| 5Y Selected | 15.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.89% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $2.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.35% |
| 10Y Range | 12.23 – 22.29 |
| 10Y Selected | 17.26 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.89% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $2.95 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.46% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.1253 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.5584 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0110 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3841 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0091 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3534 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0016 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0458 |
| Safety Score | 0.1711 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.53% | 4.47% | 4.41% | 4.35% | 4.29% | 4.23% | 4.18% | 4.12% | 4.06% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,257.34 | 1,313.53 | 1,371.45 | 1,431.13 | 1,492.57 | 1,555.77 | 1,620.73 | 1,687.46 | 1,755.95 | 1,826.19 |
| EBITDA | 111.56 | 116.55 | 121.69 | 126.98 | 132.43 | 138.04 | 143.80 | 149.72 | 155.80 | 162.03 |
| D&A | -25.94 | -27.10 | -28.29 | -29.52 | -30.79 | -32.09 | -33.43 | -34.81 | -36.22 | -37.67 |
| EBIT | 85.62 | 89.45 | 93.40 | 97.46 | 101.64 | 105.95 | 110.37 | 114.92 | 119.58 | 124.36 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -23.22 | -24.26 | -25.33 | -26.43 | -27.57 | -28.73 | -29.93 | -31.17 | -32.43 | -33.73 |
| NOPAT | 62.40 | 65.19 | 68.07 | 71.03 | 74.08 | 77.21 | 80.44 | 83.75 | 87.15 | 90.64 |
| Capital Expenditures | -34.90 | -36.46 | -38.06 | -39.72 | -41.43 | -43.18 | -44.98 | -46.84 | -48.74 | -50.69 |
| NWC Investment | -15.73 | -16.23 | -16.73 | -17.24 | -17.74 | -18.25 | -18.76 | -19.27 | -19.78 | -20.29 |
| (+) D&A | 25.94 | 27.10 | 28.29 | 29.52 | 30.79 | 32.09 | 33.43 | 34.81 | 36.22 | 37.67 |
| Free Cash Flow | 37.72 | 39.60 | 41.56 | 43.59 | 45.70 | 47.87 | 50.13 | 52.45 | 54.86 | 57.34 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 27,526,750.00 | 27,526,750.00 | 27,526,750.00 | 27,526,750.00 | 27,526,750.00 | 27,526,750.00 | 27,526,750.00 | 27,526,750.00 | 27,526,750.00 | 27,526,750.00 |
| Metric | Feb-26 | Feb-27 | Feb-28 | Feb-29 | Feb-30 | Feb-31 | Feb-32 | Feb-33 | Feb-34 | Feb-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 11/1/25 | 2/2/26 | 2/2/27 | 2/2/28 | 2/2/29 | 2/2/30 | 2/2/31 | 2/2/32 | 2/2/33 | 2/2/34 |
| Period End | 2/1/26 | 2/1/27 | 2/1/28 | 2/1/29 | 2/1/30 | 2/1/31 | 2/1/32 | 2/1/33 | 2/1/34 | 2/1/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/17/25 | 8/3/26 | 8/3/27 | 8/2/28 | 8/3/29 | 8/3/30 | 8/3/31 | 8/2/32 | 8/3/33 | 8/3/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.54 | 1.54 | 2.54 | 3.55 | 4.55 | 5.55 | 6.55 | 7.55 | 8.55 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 37.39 | 37.78 | 36.35 | 34.94 | 33.55 | 32.21 | 30.92 | 29.65 | 28.43 | 27.23 | Raw: 685.44 481.74 |
Raw: 860.01 391.08 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 661.75 | 719.53 |
| (-) Net Debt | 274.36 | 274.36 |
| Equity Value | 387.39 | 445.16 |
| (/) Shares Out | 27.53 | 27.53 |
| Fair Value | $14.07 | $16.17 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.89% | 82.89% |
| Buy Price | $2.41 | $2.77 |
| Current Price | $19.00 | $19.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -87.33% | -85.44% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 37.35 | 37.60 | 35.84 | 34.14 | 32.48 | 30.90 | 29.39 | 27.93 | 26.53 | 25.19 | Raw: 559.10 378.69 |
Raw: 701.49 293.71 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 556.10 | 611.07 |
| (-) Net Debt | 274.36 | 274.36 |
| Equity Value | 281.74 | 336.71 |
| (/) Shares Out | 27.53 | 27.53 |
| Fair Value | $10.24 | $12.23 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.89% | 82.89% |
| Buy Price | $1.75 | $2.09 |
| Current Price | $19.00 | $19.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -90.78% | -88.98% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 37.42 | 37.97 | 36.87 | 35.77 | 34.66 | 33.59 | 32.54 | 31.50 | 30.47 | 29.46 | Raw: 883.04 644.20 |
Raw: 1,107.94 547.60 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 826.89 | 887.86 |
| (-) Net Debt | 274.36 | 274.36 |
| Equity Value | 552.53 | 613.50 |
| (/) Shares Out | 27.53 | 27.53 |
| Fair Value | $20.07 | $22.29 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.89% | 82.89% |
| Buy Price | $3.43 | $3.81 |
| Current Price | $19.00 | $19.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.92% | -79.93% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,267.44 | 4,493.37 | 8,904.46 | 17,645.87 | 34,968.64 | 69,296.99 | 137,325.12 | 272,135.74 | 539,288.53 | 1,068,702.40 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.23 | 0.45 | 0.89 | 1.76 | 3.50 | 6.93 | 13.73 | 27.21 | 53.93 | 106.87 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.22 | 0.39 | 0.71 | 1.30 | 2.35 | 4.27 | 7.76 | 14.10 | 25.61 | 46.53 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-02-01 | $17.93 | 4.00% | $24.02 | 33.95% |
| 2019 | 2019-02-02 | $18.45 | 6.46% | $46.19 | 150.35% |
| 2018 | 2018-02-03 | $11.13 | 8.64% | $15.42 | 38.54% |
| 2017 | 2017-01-28 | $12.65 | 8.30% | $26.81 | 111.93% |
| 2016 | 2016-01-30 | $11.60 | 5.80% | $17.06 | 47.06% |
| 2015 | 2015-01-31 | $11.61 | 9.02% | $15.08 | 29.86% |
| 2014 | 2014-02-01 | $12.35 | 9.35% | $5.53 | -55.22% |
| 2013 | 2013-02-02 | $10.25 | 8.50% | $1.08 | -89.47% |
| 2012 | 2012-01-28 | $8.59 | 6.48% | $6.56 | -23.62% |
| 2011 | 2011-01-29 | $8.20 | 6.69% | $9.49 | 15.71% |
| 2010 | 2010-01-30 | $6.09 | 5.62% | $10.44 | 71.48% |
| 2009 | 2009-01-31 | $2.62 | 5.03% | $7.65 | 192.08% |
| 2008 | 2008-02-02 | $4.98 | 4.69% | $0.93 | -81.43% |
| 2007 | 2007-02-03 | $10.82 | 3.39% | $2.75 | -74.62% |
| 2006 | 2006-01-28 | $7.60 | 3.29% | $8.88 | 16.78% |
| 2005 | 2005-01-29 | $4.17 | 2.00% | $6.31 | 51.32% |
| 2004 | 2004-01-31 | $5.41 | 2.72% | $-6.13 | -213.37% |
| 2003 | 2003-02-01 | $4.34 | 3.96% | $3.80 | -12.37% |
| 2002 | 2002-02-02 | $4.67 | 5.44% | $5.62 | 20.42% |
| 2001 | 2001-02-03 | $2.90 | 5.86% | $-6.77 | -333.32% |
| 2000 | 2000-01-29 | $2.65 | 7.28% | $-10.95 | -513.21% |
| 1999 | 1999-01-30 | $3.15 | 12.85% | $2.96 | -6.17% |
| 1998 | 1998-01-31 | $2.79 | 17.56% | $2.35 | -15.74% |
| 1997 | 1997-02-01 | $1.67 | 19.28% | $8.76 | 424.78% |
| $7.72 - $9.77 | 15 |
| $9.77 - $11.83 | 77 |
| $11.83 - $13.89 | 179 |
| $13.89 - $15.94 | 230 |
| $15.94 - $18.00 | 171 |
| $18.00 - $20.06 | 112 |
| $20.06 - $22.11 | 98 |
| $22.11 - $24.17 | 58 |
| $24.17 - $26.23 | 28 |
| $26.23 - $28.28 | 12 |
| $28.28 - $30.34 | 7 |
| $30.34 - $32.40 | 5 |
| $32.40 - $34.46 | 2 |
| $34.46 - $36.51 | 2 |
| $36.51 - $38.57 | 1 |
| $38.57 - $40.63 | 2 |
| $40.63 - $42.68 | 0 |
| $42.68 - $44.74 | 0 |
| $44.74 - $46.80 | 0 |
| $46.80 - $48.85 | 1 |