Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $100.35 |
| 5Y Range | 146.20 – 233.93 |
| 5Y Selected | 190.07 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 55.98% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $83.67 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -16.62% |
| 10Y Range | 161.27 – 249.35 |
| 10Y Selected | 205.31 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 55.98% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $90.38 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -9.94% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.3686 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8583 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6266 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8051 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.4418 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8393 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6018 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3795 |
| Safety Score | 0.4402 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.52% | 5.35% | 5.18% | 5.01% | 4.84% | 4.67% | 4.51% | 4.34% | 4.17% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 7,891.63 | 8,313.73 | 8,744.38 | 9,182.61 | 9,627.31 | 10,077.32 | 10,531.38 | 10,988.15 | 11,446.20 | 11,904.04 |
| EBITDA | 718.30 | 756.72 | 795.92 | 835.80 | 876.28 | 917.24 | 958.57 | 1,000.15 | 1,041.84 | 1,083.51 |
| D&A | -145.52 | -153.31 | -161.25 | -169.33 | -177.53 | -185.83 | -194.20 | -202.62 | -211.07 | -219.51 |
| EBIT | 572.78 | 603.41 | 634.67 | 666.48 | 698.75 | 731.42 | 764.37 | 797.52 | 830.77 | 864.00 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -124.96 | -131.64 | -138.46 | -145.40 | -152.44 | -159.56 | -166.75 | -173.99 | -181.24 | -188.49 |
| NOPAT | 447.82 | 471.77 | 496.21 | 521.08 | 546.31 | 571.85 | 597.62 | 623.54 | 649.53 | 675.51 |
| Capital Expenditures | -35.51 | -37.41 | -39.35 | -41.32 | -43.32 | -45.35 | -47.39 | -49.45 | -51.51 | -53.57 |
| NWC Investment | -5.26 | -5.38 | -5.49 | -5.59 | -5.67 | -5.74 | -5.79 | -5.82 | -5.84 | -5.84 |
| (+) D&A | 145.52 | 153.31 | 161.25 | 169.33 | 177.53 | 185.83 | 194.20 | 202.62 | 211.07 | 219.51 |
| Free Cash Flow | 552.57 | 582.29 | 612.62 | 643.50 | 674.85 | 706.59 | 738.64 | 770.89 | 803.25 | 835.62 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 47,625,000.00 | 47,625,000.00 | 47,625,000.00 | 47,625,000.00 | 47,625,000.00 | 47,625,000.00 | 47,625,000.00 | 47,625,000.00 | 47,625,000.00 | 47,625,000.00 |
| Metric | Jan-26 | Jan-27 | Jan-28 | Jan-29 | Jan-30 | Jan-31 | Jan-32 | Jan-33 | Jan-34 | Jan-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 10/31/25 | 2/1/26 | 2/1/27 | 2/1/28 | 2/1/29 | 2/1/30 | 2/1/31 | 2/1/32 | 2/1/33 | 2/1/34 |
| Period End | 1/31/26 | 1/31/27 | 1/31/28 | 1/31/29 | 1/31/30 | 1/31/31 | 1/31/32 | 1/31/33 | 1/31/34 | 1/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/16/25 | 8/2/26 | 8/2/27 | 8/1/28 | 8/2/29 | 8/2/30 | 8/2/31 | 8/1/32 | 8/2/33 | 8/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.54 | 1.54 | 2.54 | 3.55 | 4.55 | 5.55 | 6.55 | 7.55 | 8.55 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 547.78 | 555.54 | 535.74 | 515.81 | 495.40 | 475.45 | 455.56 | 435.81 | 416.23 | 396.89 | Raw: 10,365.28 7,284.89 |
Raw: 12,834.55 5,836.31 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,935.17 | 10,666.54 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,352.50 | 1,352.50 |
| Equity Value | 8,582.67 | 9,314.04 |
| (/) Shares Out | 47.63 | 47.63 |
| Fair Value | $180.21 | $195.57 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 55.98% | 55.98% |
| Buy Price | $79.33 | $86.09 |
| Current Price | $100.35 | $100.35 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -20.95% | -14.21% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 547.28 | 552.81 | 528.26 | 504.00 | 479.61 | 456.11 | 433.07 | 410.52 | 388.52 | 367.11 | Raw: 8,420.66 5,703.47 |
Raw: 10,426.67 4,365.58 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,315.44 | 9,032.88 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,352.50 | 1,352.50 |
| Equity Value | 6,962.94 | 7,680.38 |
| (/) Shares Out | 47.63 | 47.63 |
| Fair Value | $146.20 | $161.27 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 55.98% | 55.98% |
| Buy Price | $64.36 | $70.99 |
| Current Price | $100.35 | $100.35 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -35.87% | -29.26% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 548.29 | 558.31 | 543.39 | 528.02 | 511.87 | 495.79 | 479.45 | 462.90 | 446.20 | 429.40 | Raw: 13,438.57 9,803.73 |
Raw: 16,639.97 8,224.37 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 12,493.61 | 13,227.99 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,352.50 | 1,352.50 |
| Equity Value | 11,141.11 | 11,875.49 |
| (/) Shares Out | 47.63 | 47.63 |
| Fair Value | $233.93 | $249.35 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 55.98% | 55.98% |
| Buy Price | $102.98 | $109.77 |
| Current Price | $100.35 | $100.35 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 2.62% | 9.38% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 14,838.62 | 29,957.09 | 60,479.18 | 122,098.98 | 246,500.73 | 497,650.43 | 1,004,686.48 | 2,028,321.20 | 4,094,896.27 | 8,267,021.72 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 101.89% | 101.89% | 101.89% | 101.89% | 101.89% | 101.89% | 101.89% | 101.89% | 101.89% | 101.89% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.48 | 3.00 | 6.05 | 12.21 | 24.65 | 49.77 | 100.47 | 202.83 | 409.49 | 826.70 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.43 | 2.62 | 4.85 | 8.96 | 16.59 | 30.69 | 56.80 | 105.10 | 194.50 | 359.91 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-01-31 | $87.77 | 5.01% | $107.47 | 22.45% |
| 2019 | 2019-01-31 | $67.14 | 6.36% | $28.63 | -57.36% |
| 2018 | 2018-01-31 | $76.65 | 6.83% | $70.79 | -7.65% |
| 2017 | 2017-01-31 | $81.42 | 5.66% | $92.82 | 14.01% |
| 2016 | 2016-01-31 | $42.43 | 4.49% | $63.24 | 49.04% |
| 2015 | 2015-01-31 | $48.78 | 3.67% | $92.07 | 88.74% |
| 2014 | 2014-01-31 | $37.01 | 6.06% | $62.20 | 68.05% |
| 2013 | 2013-01-31 | $31.43 | 5.75% | $16.03 | -49.00% |
| 2012 | 2012-01-31 | $31.43 | 22.65% | $80.57 | 156.36% |
| 2011 | 2011-01-31 | $31.43 | 30.40% | $93.51 | 197.53% |
| 2010 | 2010-01-31 | $31.43 | 28.74% | $78.28 | 149.07% |
| $124.94 - $142.21 | 13 |
| $142.21 - $159.47 | 71 |
| $159.47 - $176.74 | 175 |
| $176.74 - $194.01 | 228 |
| $194.01 - $211.27 | 180 |
| $211.27 - $228.54 | 120 |
| $228.54 - $245.80 | 90 |
| $245.80 - $263.07 | 52 |
| $263.07 - $280.33 | 13 |
| $280.33 - $297.60 | 25 |
| $297.60 - $314.86 | 9 |
| $314.86 - $332.13 | 12 |
| $332.13 - $349.39 | 3 |
| $349.39 - $366.66 | 4 |
| $366.66 - $383.92 | 1 |
| $383.92 - $401.19 | 1 |
| $401.19 - $418.45 | 1 |
| $418.45 - $435.72 | 1 |
| $435.72 - $452.98 | 0 |
| $452.98 - $470.25 | 1 |