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Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Insurance - SpecialtySector: Financial Services

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$53.00
5Y Range7.88 – 18.30
5Y Selected13.09
(-) Safety Margin45.22%
5Y Buy Price$7.17
Upside (to Buy Price)-86.47%
10Y Range-7.64 – -6.32
10Y Selected-6.98
(-) Safety Margin45.22%
10Y Buy Price$-3.82
Upside (to Buy Price)-107.21%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9948
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9955
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.2954
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.2790
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.9694
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.9803
FCF R2 (5Y)0.9538
FCF R2 (10Y)0.9381
Safety Score0.5478

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth15.48%14.20%12.93%11.65%10.38%9.10%7.83%6.55%5.28%4.00%
Revenue2,835.703,238.373,656.944,082.994,506.604,916.715,301.455,648.705,946.676,184.54
EBITDA-259.58-296.44-334.75-373.75-412.53-450.07-485.29-517.08-544.35-566.13
D&A-188.38-215.14-242.94-271.25-299.39-326.63-352.19-375.26-395.06-410.86
EBIT-447.96-511.57-577.70-645.00-711.92-776.71-837.48-892.34-939.41-976.99
Pro forma Taxes60.2368.7877.6786.7295.72104.43112.60119.98126.31131.36
NOPAT-387.73-442.79-500.02-558.28-616.20-672.27-724.88-772.36-813.10-845.63
Capital Expenditures-36.74-41.96-47.38-52.90-58.39-63.70-68.68-73.18-77.04-80.12
NWC Investment686.04726.94755.62769.12764.74740.35694.55626.87537.91429.41
(+) D&A188.38215.14242.94271.25299.39326.63352.19375.26395.06410.86
Free Cash Flow449.95457.33451.17429.19389.54331.01253.18156.5942.82-85.48
Diluted Shares Outstanding237,658,153.75237,658,153.75237,658,153.75237,658,153.75237,658,153.75237,658,153.75237,658,153.75237,658,153.75237,658,153.75237,658,153.75

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.50%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF446.05439.37397.30346.43288.21224.48157.3889.2222.36-40.92
Raw: 6,049.33
4,285.02
Raw: -1,327.52
-608.42

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value6,202.391,761.47
(-) Net Debt3,372.343,372.34
Equity Value2,830.05-1,610.86
(/) Shares Out237.66237.66
Fair Value$11.91$-6.78
(-) Safety Margin45.22%45.22%
Buy Price$6.52$-3.71
Current Price$53.00$53.00
Upside (to Buy Price)-87.69%-107.01%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 2.00%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF445.65437.53392.05338.74279.25215.53149.7384.1120.89-37.88
Raw: 4,905.08
3,351.19
Raw: -1,076.41
-454.60

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value5,244.411,871.00
(-) Net Debt3,372.343,372.34
Equity Value1,872.07-1,501.34
(/) Shares Out237.66237.66
Fair Value$7.88$-6.32
(-) Safety Margin45.22%45.22%
Buy Price$4.32$-3.46
Current Price$53.00$53.00
Upside (to Buy Price)-91.86%-106.53%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 3.00%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF446.46441.23402.68354.37297.54233.89165.4994.6923.96-44.24
Raw: 7,866.65
5,779.26
Raw: -1,726.32
-859.24

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value7,721.541,556.84
(-) Net Debt3,372.343,372.34
Equity Value4,349.21-1,815.50
(/) Shares Out237.66237.66
Fair Value$18.30$-7.64
(-) Safety Margin45.22%45.22%
Buy Price$10.02$-4.18
Current Price$53.00$53.00
Upside (to Buy Price)-81.09%-107.90%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$53.00
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH145.85%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue7,250.8917,826.2943,825.86107,745.71264,892.41651,236.951,601,063.493,936,208.339,677,152.8123,791,242.39
Constant Implied Growth145.85%145.85%145.85%145.85%145.85%145.85%145.85%145.85%145.85%145.85%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.731.784.3810.7726.4965.12160.11393.62967.722,379.12
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.671.443.247.3116.4737.1183.62188.43424.62956.87

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$27.5017.77%$36.2331.73%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-6.91
Median
$-6.76
10th Percentile
$-7.63
90th Percentile
$-6.36

Fair Value Distribution

$-11.50 - $-11.23
1
$-11.23 - $-10.95
1
$-10.95 - $-10.67
0
$-10.67 - $-10.40
0
$-10.40 - $-10.12
1
$-10.12 - $-9.85
3
$-9.85 - $-9.57
1
$-9.57 - $-9.30
1
$-9.30 - $-9.02
1
$-9.02 - $-8.75
10
$-8.75 - $-8.47
9
$-8.47 - $-8.20
12
$-8.20 - $-7.92
24
$-7.92 - $-7.64
35
$-7.64 - $-7.37
54
$-7.37 - $-7.09
127
$-7.09 - $-6.82
176
$-6.82 - $-6.54
257
$-6.54 - $-6.27
244
$-6.27 - $-5.99
43