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Revvity, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & ResearchSector: Healthcare

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$96.27
5Y Range36.94 – 62.05
5Y Selected49.49
(-) Safety Margin85.19%
5Y Buy Price$7.33
Upside (to Buy Price)-92.39%
10Y Range36.11 – 57.75
10Y Selected46.93
(-) Safety Margin85.19%
10Y Buy Price$6.95
Upside (to Buy Price)-92.78%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8844
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.3323
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.5488
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0348
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.5292
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.3817
FCF R2 (5Y)0.3914
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0831
Safety Score0.1481

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth-5.52%-4.46%-3.40%-2.35%-1.29%-0.23%0.83%1.88%2.94%4.00%
Revenue2,602.952,486.802,402.132,345.762,315.532,310.172,329.272,373.172,442.992,540.71
EBITDA738.79705.82681.79665.79657.21655.69661.11673.57693.39721.13
D&A-228.22-218.03-210.61-205.67-203.02-202.55-204.22-208.07-214.19-222.76
EBIT510.57487.79471.18460.13454.19453.15456.89465.50479.20498.36
Pro forma Taxes-100.40-95.92-92.65-90.48-89.31-89.11-89.84-91.53-94.23-98.00
NOPAT410.18391.87378.53369.65364.88364.04367.05373.97384.97400.37
Capital Expenditures-61.81-59.05-57.04-55.70-54.98-54.85-55.31-56.35-58.01-60.33
NWC Investment30.2023.0616.8111.196.001.06-3.79-8.72-13.87-19.40
(+) D&A228.22218.03210.61205.67203.02202.55204.22208.07214.19222.76
Free Cash Flow606.79573.92548.92530.81518.92512.80512.17516.97527.29543.40
Diluted Shares Outstanding119,271,750.00119,271,750.00119,271,750.00119,271,750.00119,271,750.00119,271,750.00119,271,750.00119,271,750.00119,271,750.00119,271,750.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/28/2512/30/2512/30/2612/30/2712/30/2812/30/2912/30/3012/30/3112/30/3212/30/33
Period End12/29/2512/29/2612/29/2712/29/2812/29/2912/29/3012/29/3112/29/3212/29/3312/29/34
Mid-Point11/13/256/30/266/30/276/29/286/30/296/30/306/30/316/29/326/30/336/30/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.453.454.455.456.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.17%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF601.53551.87483.81428.83384.27348.07318.65294.56275.38260.13
Raw: 7,648.24
5,422.32
Raw: 8,008.92
3,670.59

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value7,872.637,617.68
(-) Net Debt2,292.702,292.70
Equity Value5,579.935,324.98
(/) Shares Out119.27119.27
Fair Value$46.78$44.65
(-) Safety Margin85.19%85.19%
Buy Price$6.93$6.61
Current Price$96.27$96.27
Upside (to Buy Price)-92.80%-93.13%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.67%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF600.98549.61477.45419.35372.36334.22303.19277.70257.26240.80
Raw: 6,256.87
4,278.86
Raw: 6,551.94
2,767.11

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value6,698.616,600.03
(-) Net Debt2,292.702,292.70
Equity Value4,405.924,307.33
(/) Shares Out119.27119.27
Fair Value$36.94$36.11
(-) Safety Margin85.19%85.19%
Buy Price$5.47$5.35
Current Price$96.27$96.27
Upside (to Buy Price)-94.32%-94.44%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.67%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF602.08554.16490.31438.62396.67362.62335.05312.61294.96281.20
Raw: 9,808.06
7,211.13
Raw: 10,270.60
5,111.99

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value9,692.989,180.28
(-) Net Debt2,292.702,292.70
Equity Value7,400.286,887.59
(/) Shares Out119.27119.27
Fair Value$62.05$57.75
(-) Safety Margin85.19%85.19%
Buy Price$9.19$8.55
Current Price$96.27$96.27
Upside (to Buy Price)-90.46%-91.12%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$96.27
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH143.29%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue6,844.5316,651.8040,511.5198,558.89239,780.12583,351.771,419,213.963,452,750.768,400,063.8020,436,190.37
Constant Implied Growth143.29%143.29%143.29%143.29%143.29%143.29%143.29%143.29%143.29%143.29%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.681.674.059.8623.9858.34141.92345.28840.012,043.62
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.641.353.006.6914.9233.2474.12165.29368.58821.93

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$97.10-12.28%$3.07-96.83%
20182018-12-31$78.55-5.87%$7.08-90.99%
20172017-12-31$73.913.24%$22.95-68.95%
20162016-12-31$52.1512.45%$68.1730.72%
20152015-12-31$53.5713.62%$54.431.61%
20142014-12-31$43.739.22%$42.44-2.95%
20132013-12-31$41.235.63%$13.70-66.77%
20122012-12-31$31.740.97%$8.40-73.54%
20112011-12-31$20.000.45%$19.30-3.51%
20102010-12-31$25.822.57%$18.74-27.43%
20092009-12-31$20.597.49%$17.69-14.08%
20082008-12-31$13.919.84%$31.24124.59%
20072007-12-31$26.024.63%$21.87-15.97%
20062006-12-31$22.231.12%$10.78-51.50%
20052005-12-31$23.562.09%$25.367.62%
20042004-12-31$22.496.13%$26.6518.50%
20032003-12-31$17.0710.66%$25.4048.81%
20022002-12-31$8.255.17%$-0.32-103.85%
20012001-12-31$35.02-0.06%$-0.64-101.82%
20002000-12-31$48.50-2.85%$3.58-92.63%
19991999-12-31$20.84-9.01%$-28.89-238.62%
19981998-12-31$13.91-7.71%$-25.00-279.69%
19971997-12-31$10.41-6.87%$-2.81-127.03%
19961996-12-31$10.06-3.64%$-0.98-109.71%
19951995-12-31$11.941.98%$13.6614.40%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$46.03
Median
$44.67
10th Percentile
$36.08
90th Percentile
$57.10

Fair Value Distribution

$28.07 - $31.20
18
$31.20 - $34.32
36
$34.32 - $37.44
85
$37.44 - $40.56
138
$40.56 - $43.69
163
$43.69 - $46.81
156
$46.81 - $49.93
138
$49.93 - $53.06
79
$53.06 - $56.18
72
$56.18 - $59.30
42
$59.30 - $62.42
29
$62.42 - $65.55
14
$65.55 - $68.67
7
$68.67 - $71.79
7
$71.79 - $74.92
8
$74.92 - $78.04
3
$78.04 - $81.16
1
$81.16 - $84.28
0
$84.28 - $87.41
1
$87.41 - $90.53
3