Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $15.95 |
| 5Y Range | 0.36 – 0.52 |
| 5Y Selected | 0.44 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.06 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -99.61% |
| 10Y Range | 0.26 – 0.35 |
| 10Y Selected | 0.31 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.04 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -99.73% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.1561 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0039 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0112 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0091 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0634 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0079 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2017 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0649 |
| Safety Score | 0.1409 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -44.93% | -39.49% | -34.06% | -28.62% | -23.18% | -17.75% | -12.31% | -6.87% | -1.44% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 13.00 | 7.86 | 5.19 | 3.70 | 2.84 | 2.34 | 2.05 | 1.91 | 1.88 | 1.96 |
| EBITDA | 13.95 | 8.44 | 5.57 | 3.97 | 3.05 | 2.51 | 2.20 | 2.05 | 2.02 | 2.10 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 13.95 | 8.44 | 5.57 | 3.97 | 3.05 | 2.51 | 2.20 | 2.05 | 2.02 | 2.10 |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NOPAT | 13.95 | 8.44 | 5.57 | 3.97 | 3.05 | 2.51 | 2.20 | 2.05 | 2.02 | 2.10 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | 4.52 | 2.19 | 1.14 | 0.63 | 0.37 | 0.22 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.01 | -0.03 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 18.47 | 10.63 | 6.71 | 4.61 | 3.42 | 2.73 | 2.32 | 2.11 | 2.03 | 2.07 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 116,402,535.25 | 116,402,535.25 | 116,402,535.25 | 116,402,535.25 | 116,402,535.25 | 116,402,535.25 | 116,402,535.25 | 116,402,535.25 | 116,402,535.25 | 116,402,535.25 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 18.31 | 10.21 | 5.91 | 3.72 | 2.53 | 1.85 | 1.44 | 1.20 | 1.06 | 0.99 | Raw: 49.14 34.81 |
Raw: 29.75 13.64 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 75.49 | 60.87 |
| (-) Net Debt | 26.15 | 26.15 |
| Equity Value | 49.34 | 34.72 |
| (/) Shares Out | 116.40 | 116.40 |
| Fair Value | $0.42 | $0.30 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $0.06 | $0.04 |
| Current Price | $15.95 | $15.95 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -99.63% | -99.74% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 18.30 | 10.17 | 5.83 | 3.64 | 2.45 | 1.78 | 1.37 | 1.13 | 0.99 | 0.92 | Raw: 40.37 27.58 |
Raw: 24.44 10.32 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 67.96 | 56.90 |
| (-) Net Debt | 26.15 | 26.15 |
| Equity Value | 41.81 | 30.75 |
| (/) Shares Out | 116.40 | 116.40 |
| Fair Value | $0.36 | $0.26 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $0.05 | $0.04 |
| Current Price | $15.95 | $15.95 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -99.68% | -99.77% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 18.33 | 10.26 | 5.99 | 3.80 | 2.61 | 1.93 | 1.52 | 1.28 | 1.14 | 1.07 | Raw: 62.62 46.00 |
Raw: 37.91 18.87 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 86.99 | 66.79 |
| (-) Net Debt | 26.15 | 26.15 |
| Equity Value | 60.84 | 40.64 |
| (/) Shares Out | 116.40 | 116.40 |
| Fair Value | $0.52 | $0.35 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $0.07 | $0.05 |
| Current Price | $15.95 | $15.95 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -99.54% | -99.69% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 274.61 | 766.65 | 2,140.31 | 5,975.20 | 16,681.24 | 46,569.83 | 130,011.22 | 362,958.57 | 1,013,288.87 | 2,828,847.23 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 179.17% | 179.17% | 179.17% | 179.17% | 179.17% | 179.17% | 179.17% | 179.17% | 179.17% | 179.17% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.21 | 0.60 | 1.67 | 4.66 | 13.00 | 36.30 | 101.33 | 282.88 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 0.41 | 1.04 | 2.65 | 6.79 | 17.38 | 44.46 | 113.77 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $13.42 | 48.61% | $147.96 | 1,002.55% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $12.27 | -9.85% | $-14.49 | -218.07% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $14.54 | -7.03% | $44.53 | 206.23% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $10.79 | -3.63% | $51.83 | 380.36% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $8.39 | 8.54% | $-175.07 | -2,186.65% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $18.58 | 2.80% | $17.47 | -6.00% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $22.21 | -10.05% | $33.00 | 48.60% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $20.08 | -13.70% | $12.42 | -38.13% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $20.44 | -8.58% | $35.73 | 74.79% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $17.29 | 16.63% | $168.53 | 874.73% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $13.25 | 24.78% | $-92.29 | -796.56% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $15.72 | 13.77% | $69.38 | 341.37% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $14.44 | -6.83% | $30.48 | 111.05% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $13.06 | -24.88% | $8.67 | -33.60% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $13.75 | -24.48% | $3.90 | -71.64% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $15.06 | -11.35% | $4.44 | -70.50% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $12.63 | -3.77% | $-23.88 | -289.04% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $11.88 | 3.82% | $-7.52 | -163.33% |
| $0.22 - $0.24 | 8 |
| $0.24 - $0.25 | 44 |
| $0.25 - $0.27 | 105 |
| $0.27 - $0.28 | 175 |
| $0.28 - $0.30 | 196 |
| $0.30 - $0.32 | 169 |
| $0.32 - $0.33 | 105 |
| $0.33 - $0.35 | 69 |
| $0.35 - $0.36 | 56 |
| $0.36 - $0.38 | 31 |
| $0.38 - $0.39 | 11 |
| $0.39 - $0.41 | 18 |
| $0.41 - $0.42 | 4 |
| $0.42 - $0.44 | 3 |
| $0.44 - $0.46 | 0 |
| $0.46 - $0.47 | 3 |
| $0.47 - $0.49 | 2 |
| $0.49 - $0.50 | 0 |
| $0.50 - $0.52 | 0 |
| $0.52 - $0.53 | 1 |