Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $38.38 |
| 5Y Range | 13.89 – 26.31 |
| 5Y Selected | 20.10 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.81% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $4.06 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -89.42% |
| 10Y Range | 13.85 – 24.84 |
| 10Y Selected | 19.34 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.81% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $3.91 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -89.82% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.4155 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8001 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0110 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0079 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0032 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0114 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.7197 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.8769 |
| Safety Score | 0.2019 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -6.36% | -5.21% | -4.06% | -2.91% | -1.76% | -0.61% | 0.55% | 1.70% | 2.85% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,119.55 | 2,009.09 | 1,927.52 | 1,871.46 | 1,838.58 | 1,827.44 | 1,837.42 | 1,868.60 | 1,921.83 | 1,998.70 |
| EBITDA | 1,326.88 | 1,257.73 | 1,206.67 | 1,171.57 | 1,150.98 | 1,144.01 | 1,150.26 | 1,169.78 | 1,203.10 | 1,251.22 |
| D&A | -18.29 | -17.34 | -16.64 | -16.15 | -15.87 | -15.77 | -15.86 | -16.13 | -16.59 | -17.25 |
| EBIT | 1,308.58 | 1,240.39 | 1,190.03 | 1,155.42 | 1,135.12 | 1,128.24 | 1,134.40 | 1,153.65 | 1,186.51 | 1,233.97 |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NOPAT | 1,308.58 | 1,240.39 | 1,190.03 | 1,155.42 | 1,135.12 | 1,128.24 | 1,134.40 | 1,153.65 | 1,186.51 | 1,233.97 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | 2.59 | 1.98 | 1.46 | 1.01 | 0.59 | 0.20 | -0.18 | -0.56 | -0.96 | -1.38 |
| (+) D&A | 18.29 | 17.34 | 16.64 | 16.15 | 15.87 | 15.77 | 15.86 | 16.13 | 16.59 | 17.25 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,329.46 | 1,259.71 | 1,208.13 | 1,172.58 | 1,151.57 | 1,144.21 | 1,150.08 | 1,169.22 | 1,202.14 | 1,249.84 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 572,152,750.00 | 572,152,750.00 | 572,152,750.00 | 572,152,750.00 | 572,152,750.00 | 572,152,750.00 | 572,152,750.00 | 572,152,750.00 | 572,152,750.00 | 572,152,750.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,317.94 | 1,210.25 | 1,063.90 | 946.48 | 852.01 | 775.97 | 714.90 | 666.19 | 627.83 | 598.31 | Raw: 17,605.58 12,470.84 |
Raw: 19,107.94 8,757.41 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 17,861.43 | 17,531.19 |
| (-) Net Debt | 7,152.63 | 7,152.63 |
| Equity Value | 10,708.79 | 10,378.56 |
| (/) Shares Out | 572.15 | 572.15 |
| Fair Value | $18.72 | $18.14 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.81% | 79.81% |
| Buy Price | $3.78 | $3.66 |
| Current Price | $38.38 | $38.38 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -90.15% | -90.46% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,316.73 | 1,205.18 | 1,049.82 | 925.47 | 825.53 | 745.02 | 680.16 | 628.06 | 586.52 | 553.86 | Raw: 14,314.01 9,779.45 |
Raw: 15,535.48 6,561.17 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 15,102.20 | 15,077.54 |
| (-) Net Debt | 7,152.63 | 7,152.63 |
| Equity Value | 7,949.57 | 7,924.91 |
| (/) Shares Out | 572.15 | 572.15 |
| Fair Value | $13.89 | $13.85 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.81% | 79.81% |
| Buy Price | $2.81 | $2.80 |
| Current Price | $38.38 | $38.38 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.69% | -92.71% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,319.15 | 1,215.39 | 1,078.30 | 968.17 | 879.60 | 808.50 | 751.77 | 707.02 | 672.48 | 646.78 | Raw: 22,796.89 16,747.79 |
Raw: 24,742.25 12,314.96 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 22,208.40 | 21,362.11 |
| (-) Net Debt | 7,152.63 | 7,152.63 |
| Equity Value | 15,055.76 | 14,209.47 |
| (/) Shares Out | 572.15 | 572.15 |
| Fair Value | $26.31 | $24.84 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.81% | 79.81% |
| Buy Price | $5.31 | $5.01 |
| Current Price | $38.38 | $38.38 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.16% | -86.94% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 6,283.08 | 16,799.87 | 44,919.97 | 120,108.29 | 321,148.92 | 858,697.02 | 2,296,008.24 | 6,139,131.40 | 16,414,982.19 | 43,890,841.06 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.63 | 1.68 | 4.49 | 12.01 | 32.11 | 85.87 | 229.60 | 613.91 | 1,641.50 | 4,389.08 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.58 | 1.36 | 3.32 | 8.15 | 19.96 | 48.93 | 119.91 | 293.88 | 720.27 | 1,765.27 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $44.50 | -1.97% | $47.94 | 7.73% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $44.50 | -0.15% | $55.32 | 24.32% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $44.50 | 0.91% | $47.42 | 6.55% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $44.50 | 4.79% | $-6.96 | -115.63% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $44.50 | 12.67% | $-7.03 | -115.80% |
| $9.43 - $11.75 | 20 |
| $11.75 - $14.07 | 95 |
| $14.07 - $16.40 | 233 |
| $16.40 - $18.72 | 201 |
| $18.72 - $21.04 | 197 |
| $21.04 - $23.36 | 103 |
| $23.36 - $25.68 | 68 |
| $25.68 - $28.01 | 40 |
| $28.01 - $30.33 | 21 |
| $30.33 - $32.65 | 9 |
| $32.65 - $34.97 | 3 |
| $34.97 - $37.29 | 4 |
| $37.29 - $39.61 | 4 |
| $39.61 - $41.94 | 0 |
| $41.94 - $44.26 | 0 |
| $44.26 - $46.58 | 1 |
| $46.58 - $48.90 | 0 |
| $48.90 - $51.22 | 0 |
| $51.22 - $53.54 | 0 |
| $53.54 - $55.87 | 1 |