Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $443.78 |
| 5Y Range | 262.17 – 429.52 |
| 5Y Selected | 345.85 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.36% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $105.97 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.12% |
| 10Y Range | 289.77 – 456.71 |
| 10Y Selected | 373.24 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.36% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $114.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -74.23% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9107 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8024 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9867 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4717 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9424 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6487 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1736 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.4428 |
| Safety Score | 0.3064 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.29% | 5.15% | 5.00% | 4.86% | 4.72% | 4.57% | 4.43% | 4.29% | 4.14% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 7,411.46 | 7,792.79 | 8,182.59 | 8,580.17 | 8,984.79 | 9,395.63 | 9,811.81 | 10,232.37 | 10,656.31 | 11,082.56 |
| EBITDA | 2,931.18 | 3,081.99 | 3,236.16 | 3,393.40 | 3,553.42 | 3,715.90 | 3,880.50 | 4,046.83 | 4,214.49 | 4,383.07 |
| D&A | -714.43 | -751.19 | -788.76 | -827.09 | -866.09 | -905.69 | -945.81 | -986.35 | -1,027.22 | -1,068.31 |
| EBIT | 2,216.75 | 2,330.81 | 2,447.39 | 2,566.31 | 2,687.33 | 2,810.21 | 2,934.69 | 3,060.48 | 3,187.28 | 3,314.77 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -477.95 | -502.55 | -527.68 | -553.32 | -579.42 | -605.91 | -632.75 | -659.87 | -687.21 | -714.70 |
| NOPAT | 1,738.80 | 1,828.26 | 1,919.71 | 2,012.99 | 2,107.91 | 2,204.30 | 2,301.94 | 2,400.61 | 2,500.07 | 2,600.07 |
| Capital Expenditures | -89.44 | -94.04 | -98.74 | -103.54 | -108.42 | -113.38 | -118.40 | -123.48 | -128.59 | -133.74 |
| NWC Investment | 66.95 | 68.58 | 70.10 | 71.50 | 72.77 | 73.88 | 74.84 | 75.63 | 76.24 | 76.66 |
| (+) D&A | 714.43 | 751.19 | 788.76 | 827.09 | 866.09 | 905.69 | 945.81 | 986.35 | 1,027.22 | 1,068.31 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,430.73 | 2,553.99 | 2,679.83 | 2,808.03 | 2,938.35 | 3,070.50 | 3,204.19 | 3,339.11 | 3,474.93 | 3,611.29 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 108,250,000.00 | 108,250,000.00 | 108,250,000.00 | 108,250,000.00 | 108,250,000.00 | 108,250,000.00 | 108,250,000.00 | 108,250,000.00 | 108,250,000.00 | 108,250,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,409.66 | 2,453.71 | 2,359.91 | 2,266.59 | 2,173.99 | 2,082.31 | 1,991.77 | 1,902.54 | 1,814.82 | 1,728.75 | Raw: 44,930.45 31,826.31 |
Raw: 55,220.53 25,308.25 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 43,490.16 | 46,492.29 |
| (-) Net Debt | 8,078.83 | 8,078.83 |
| Equity Value | 35,411.33 | 38,413.47 |
| (/) Shares Out | 108.25 | 108.25 |
| Fair Value | $327.13 | $354.86 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.36% | 69.36% |
| Buy Price | $100.23 | $108.73 |
| Current Price | $443.78 | $443.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.41% | -75.50% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,407.46 | 2,443.43 | 2,328.68 | 2,216.28 | 2,106.43 | 1,999.27 | 1,894.97 | 1,793.64 | 1,695.40 | 1,600.33 | Raw: 36,529.02 24,956.95 |
Raw: 44,894.98 18,960.69 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 36,459.22 | 39,446.58 |
| (-) Net Debt | 8,078.83 | 8,078.83 |
| Equity Value | 28,380.40 | 31,367.75 |
| (/) Shares Out | 108.25 | 108.25 |
| Fair Value | $262.17 | $289.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.36% | 69.36% |
| Buy Price | $80.33 | $88.79 |
| Current Price | $443.78 | $443.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.90% | -79.99% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,411.88 | 2,464.12 | 2,391.85 | 2,318.52 | 2,244.37 | 2,169.61 | 2,094.47 | 2,019.15 | 1,943.87 | 1,868.81 | Raw: 58,181.85 42,743.45 |
Raw: 71,506.79 35,591.07 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 54,574.19 | 57,517.71 |
| (-) Net Debt | 8,078.83 | 8,078.83 |
| Equity Value | 46,495.36 | 49,438.89 |
| (/) Shares Out | 108.25 | 108.25 |
| Fair Value | $429.52 | $456.71 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.36% | 69.36% |
| Buy Price | $131.60 | $139.94 |
| Current Price | $443.78 | $443.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -70.34% | -68.47% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 19,556.03 | 49,532.24 | 125,457.10 | 317,762.37 | 804,840.25 | 2,038,529.10 | 5,163,261.75 | 13,077,699.95 | 33,123,681.19 | 83,896,882.45 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 153.28% | 153.28% | 153.28% | 153.28% | 153.28% | 153.28% | 153.28% | 153.28% | 153.28% | 153.28% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.96 | 4.95 | 12.55 | 31.78 | 80.48 | 203.85 | 516.33 | 1,307.77 | 3,312.37 | 8,389.69 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.82 | 4.00 | 9.28 | 21.55 | 50.03 | 116.15 | 269.66 | 626.04 | 1,453.42 | 3,374.29 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $354.23 | 9.29% | $257.61 | -27.28% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $266.52 | 3.19% | $185.69 | -30.33% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $259.00 | -1.01% | $121.52 | -53.08% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $183.08 | -0.45% | $80.66 | -55.94% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $189.79 | 5.66% | $146.04 | -23.05% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $156.35 | 10.40% | $172.85 | 10.55% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $138.68 | 9.32% | $152.02 | 9.62% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $111.48 | 6.97% | $116.30 | 4.32% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $86.87 | 4.86% | $100.95 | 16.21% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $76.43 | 5.48% | $84.11 | 10.05% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $52.37 | 7.91% | $68.92 | 31.60% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $43.41 | 9.27% | $89.17 | 105.41% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $62.54 | 6.00% | $60.83 | -2.73% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $50.24 | 3.89% | $36.31 | -27.73% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $39.51 | 4.63% | $45.43 | 14.98% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $30.39 | 8.44% | $34.17 | 12.45% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $24.63 | 17.00% | $20.38 | -17.27% |
| 2002 | 2002-10-31 | $19.30 | 20.60% | $39.72 | 105.81% |
| 2001 | 2001-10-31 | $21.20 | 18.23% | $44.72 | 110.96% |
| 2000 | 2000-10-31 | $17.50 | 14.13% | $19.80 | 13.15% |
| 1999 | 1999-10-31 | $15.50 | 9.95% | $2.41 | -84.46% |
| 1998 | 1998-10-31 | $8.91 | 10.69% | $1.19 | -86.68% |
| 1997 | 1997-10-31 | $13.38 | 12.93% | $11.17 | -16.52% |
| 1996 | 1996-10-31 | $10.56 | 16.41% | $12.74 | 20.62% |
| 1995 | 1995-10-31 | $9.06 | 19.30% | $12.61 | 39.22% |
| $222.80 - $259.32 | 25 |
| $259.32 - $295.83 | 104 |
| $295.83 - $332.34 | 211 |
| $332.34 - $368.85 | 249 |
| $368.85 - $405.36 | 172 |
| $405.36 - $441.87 | 110 |
| $441.87 - $478.38 | 58 |
| $478.38 - $514.90 | 29 |
| $514.90 - $551.41 | 12 |
| $551.41 - $587.92 | 14 |
| $587.92 - $624.43 | 10 |
| $624.43 - $660.94 | 3 |
| $660.94 - $697.45 | 1 |
| $697.45 - $733.97 | 0 |
| $733.97 - $770.48 | 0 |
| $770.48 - $806.99 | 0 |
| $806.99 - $843.50 | 0 |
| $843.50 - $880.01 | 0 |
| $880.01 - $916.52 | 0 |
| $916.52 - $953.04 | 1 |