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Resolute Holdings Management, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$201.34
5Y Range353.37 – 538.93
5Y Selected446.15
(-) Safety Margin68.70%
5Y Buy Price$139.65
Upside (to Buy Price)-30.64%
10Y Range395.10 – 587.26
10Y Selected491.18
(-) Safety Margin68.70%
10Y Buy Price$153.74
Upside (to Buy Price)-23.64%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8278
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8278
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.2038
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.2038
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.4189
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.4189
FCF R2 (5Y)0.9463
FCF R2 (10Y)0.9463
Safety Score0.3130

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth13.36%12.32%11.28%10.24%9.20%8.16%7.12%6.08%5.04%4.00%
Revenue476.76535.49595.90656.92717.35775.89831.13881.66926.10963.14
EBITDA165.41185.78206.74227.91248.88269.19288.35305.88321.30334.15
D&A-11.96-13.43-14.95-16.48-17.99-19.46-20.85-22.12-23.23-24.16
EBIT153.45172.35191.79211.43230.88249.72267.50283.77298.07309.99
Pro forma Taxes0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
NOPAT153.45172.35191.79211.43230.88249.72267.50283.77298.07309.99
Capital Expenditures-10.86-12.19-13.57-14.96-16.33-17.67-18.92-20.07-21.09-21.93
NWC Investment21.3722.3422.9723.2122.9922.2621.0119.2216.9014.09
(+) D&A11.9613.4314.9516.4817.9919.4620.8522.1223.2324.16
Free Cash Flow175.92195.93216.15236.16255.53273.78290.44305.03317.11326.31
Diluted Shares Outstanding8,516,103.758,516,103.758,516,103.758,516,103.758,516,103.758,516,103.758,516,103.758,516,103.758,516,103.758,516,103.75

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.41%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF174.40188.40190.51190.62189.06185.67180.54173.80165.62156.21
Raw: 3,915.24
2,773.35
Raw: 4,999.75
2,291.45

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value3,706.334,086.27
(-) Net Debt84.0784.07
Equity Value3,622.264,002.20
(/) Shares Out8.528.52
Fair Value$425.34$469.96
(-) Safety Margin68.70%68.70%
Buy Price$133.13$147.10
Current Price$201.34$201.34
Upside (to Buy Price)-33.88%-26.94%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.91%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF174.24187.63188.00186.39183.18178.27171.77163.85154.72144.60
Raw: 3,182.04
2,173.99
Raw: 4,063.45
1,716.13

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value3,093.443,448.79
(-) Net Debt84.0784.07
Equity Value3,009.373,364.72
(/) Shares Out8.528.52
Fair Value$353.37$395.10
(-) Safety Margin68.70%68.70%
Buy Price$110.61$123.67
Current Price$201.34$201.34
Upside (to Buy Price)-45.06%-38.58%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.91%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF174.56189.18193.07194.99195.18193.45189.85184.45177.39168.86
Raw: 5,072.75
3,726.71
Raw: 6,477.88
3,224.24

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value4,673.695,085.23
(-) Net Debt84.0784.07
Equity Value4,589.625,001.16
(/) Shares Out8.528.52
Fair Value$538.93$587.26
(-) Safety Margin68.70%68.70%
Buy Price$168.69$183.81
Current Price$201.34$201.34
Upside (to Buy Price)-16.22%-8.71%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$201.34
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH138.67%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue1,062.582,536.086,052.9014,446.5834,479.9282,293.87196,412.33468,780.991,118,848.382,670,376.41
Constant Implied Growth138.67%138.67%138.67%138.67%138.67%138.67%138.67%138.67%138.67%138.67%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.110.250.611.443.458.2319.6446.88111.88267.04
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.100.200.450.982.144.6910.2622.4449.09107.40

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
Error: Rolling DCF Data Not Available
Debug Info: Read Error

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$485.48
Median
$473.94
10th Percentile
$393.48
90th Percentile
$591.15

Fair Value Distribution

$305.29 - $345.87
9
$345.87 - $386.45
75
$386.45 - $427.03
156
$427.03 - $467.61
227
$467.61 - $508.19
201
$508.19 - $548.78
149
$548.78 - $589.36
81
$589.36 - $629.94
47
$629.94 - $670.52
29
$670.52 - $711.10
11
$711.10 - $751.68
7
$751.68 - $792.26
5
$792.26 - $832.85
1
$832.85 - $873.43
1
$873.43 - $914.01
0
$914.01 - $954.59
0
$954.59 - $995.17
0
$995.17 - $1,035.75
0
$1,035.75 - $1,076.34
0
$1,076.34 - $1,116.92
0