| Current Price | $201.34 |
| 5Y Range | 353.37 – 538.93 |
| 5Y Selected | 446.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 68.70% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $139.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -30.64% |
| 10Y Range | 395.10 – 587.26 |
| 10Y Selected | 491.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 68.70% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $153.74 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -23.64% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8278 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8278 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2038 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2038 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.4189 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4189 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.9463 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.9463 |
| Safety Score | 0.3130 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 13.36% | 12.32% | 11.28% | 10.24% | 9.20% | 8.16% | 7.12% | 6.08% | 5.04% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 476.76 | 535.49 | 595.90 | 656.92 | 717.35 | 775.89 | 831.13 | 881.66 | 926.10 | 963.14 |
| EBITDA | 165.41 | 185.78 | 206.74 | 227.91 | 248.88 | 269.19 | 288.35 | 305.88 | 321.30 | 334.15 |
| D&A | -11.96 | -13.43 | -14.95 | -16.48 | -17.99 | -19.46 | -20.85 | -22.12 | -23.23 | -24.16 |
| EBIT | 153.45 | 172.35 | 191.79 | 211.43 | 230.88 | 249.72 | 267.50 | 283.77 | 298.07 | 309.99 |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NOPAT | 153.45 | 172.35 | 191.79 | 211.43 | 230.88 | 249.72 | 267.50 | 283.77 | 298.07 | 309.99 |
| Capital Expenditures | -10.86 | -12.19 | -13.57 | -14.96 | -16.33 | -17.67 | -18.92 | -20.07 | -21.09 | -21.93 |
| NWC Investment | 21.37 | 22.34 | 22.97 | 23.21 | 22.99 | 22.26 | 21.01 | 19.22 | 16.90 | 14.09 |
| (+) D&A | 11.96 | 13.43 | 14.95 | 16.48 | 17.99 | 19.46 | 20.85 | 22.12 | 23.23 | 24.16 |
| Free Cash Flow | 175.92 | 195.93 | 216.15 | 236.16 | 255.53 | 273.78 | 290.44 | 305.03 | 317.11 | 326.31 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 8,516,103.75 | 8,516,103.75 | 8,516,103.75 | 8,516,103.75 | 8,516,103.75 | 8,516,103.75 | 8,516,103.75 | 8,516,103.75 | 8,516,103.75 | 8,516,103.75 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 174.40 | 188.40 | 190.51 | 190.62 | 189.06 | 185.67 | 180.54 | 173.80 | 165.62 | 156.21 | Raw: 3,915.24 2,773.35 |
Raw: 4,999.75 2,291.45 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,706.33 | 4,086.27 |
| (-) Net Debt | 84.07 | 84.07 |
| Equity Value | 3,622.26 | 4,002.20 |
| (/) Shares Out | 8.52 | 8.52 |
| Fair Value | $425.34 | $469.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 68.70% | 68.70% |
| Buy Price | $133.13 | $147.10 |
| Current Price | $201.34 | $201.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -33.88% | -26.94% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 174.24 | 187.63 | 188.00 | 186.39 | 183.18 | 178.27 | 171.77 | 163.85 | 154.72 | 144.60 | Raw: 3,182.04 2,173.99 |
Raw: 4,063.45 1,716.13 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,093.44 | 3,448.79 |
| (-) Net Debt | 84.07 | 84.07 |
| Equity Value | 3,009.37 | 3,364.72 |
| (/) Shares Out | 8.52 | 8.52 |
| Fair Value | $353.37 | $395.10 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 68.70% | 68.70% |
| Buy Price | $110.61 | $123.67 |
| Current Price | $201.34 | $201.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -45.06% | -38.58% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 174.56 | 189.18 | 193.07 | 194.99 | 195.18 | 193.45 | 189.85 | 184.45 | 177.39 | 168.86 | Raw: 5,072.75 3,726.71 |
Raw: 6,477.88 3,224.24 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,673.69 | 5,085.23 |
| (-) Net Debt | 84.07 | 84.07 |
| Equity Value | 4,589.62 | 5,001.16 |
| (/) Shares Out | 8.52 | 8.52 |
| Fair Value | $538.93 | $587.26 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 68.70% | 68.70% |
| Buy Price | $168.69 | $183.81 |
| Current Price | $201.34 | $201.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -16.22% | -8.71% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,062.58 | 2,536.08 | 6,052.90 | 14,446.58 | 34,479.92 | 82,293.87 | 196,412.33 | 468,780.99 | 1,118,848.38 | 2,670,376.41 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 138.67% | 138.67% | 138.67% | 138.67% | 138.67% | 138.67% | 138.67% | 138.67% | 138.67% | 138.67% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.11 | 0.25 | 0.61 | 1.44 | 3.45 | 8.23 | 19.64 | 46.88 | 111.88 | 267.04 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.45 | 0.98 | 2.14 | 4.69 | 10.26 | 22.44 | 49.09 | 107.40 |
| $305.29 - $345.87 | 9 |
| $345.87 - $386.45 | 75 |
| $386.45 - $427.03 | 156 |
| $427.03 - $467.61 | 227 |
| $467.61 - $508.19 | 201 |
| $508.19 - $548.78 | 149 |
| $548.78 - $589.36 | 81 |
| $589.36 - $629.94 | 47 |
| $629.94 - $670.52 | 29 |
| $670.52 - $711.10 | 11 |
| $711.10 - $751.68 | 7 |
| $751.68 - $792.26 | 5 |
| $792.26 - $832.85 | 1 |
| $832.85 - $873.43 | 1 |
| $873.43 - $914.01 | 0 |
| $914.01 - $954.59 | 0 |
| $954.59 - $995.17 | 0 |
| $995.17 - $1,035.75 | 0 |
| $1,035.75 - $1,076.34 | 0 |
| $1,076.34 - $1,116.92 | 0 |