Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $218.09 |
| 5Y Range | 28.87 – 43.23 |
| 5Y Selected | 36.05 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.58% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $9.53 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.63% |
| 10Y Range | 32.04 – 46.90 |
| 10Y Selected | 39.47 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.58% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $10.43 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.22% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.2347 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7991 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2643 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5965 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1907 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7470 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0513 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0021 |
| Safety Score | 0.2642 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.39% | 7.90% | 7.42% | 6.93% | 6.44% | 5.95% | 5.46% | 4.98% | 4.49% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 772.59 | 833.66 | 895.49 | 957.54 | 1,019.20 | 1,079.87 | 1,138.88 | 1,195.55 | 1,249.21 | 1,299.17 |
| EBITDA | 665.52 | 718.13 | 771.39 | 824.83 | 877.95 | 930.21 | 981.04 | 1,029.86 | 1,076.08 | 1,119.12 |
| D&A | -242.78 | -261.97 | -281.40 | -300.90 | -320.28 | -339.34 | -357.88 | -375.69 | -392.55 | -408.25 |
| EBIT | 422.74 | 456.15 | 489.99 | 523.93 | 557.68 | 590.87 | 623.16 | 654.17 | 683.53 | 710.87 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -88.22 | -95.19 | -102.25 | -109.33 | -116.37 | -123.30 | -130.04 | -136.51 | -142.64 | -148.34 |
| NOPAT | 334.52 | 360.97 | 387.74 | 414.60 | 441.30 | 467.57 | 493.12 | 517.66 | 540.89 | 562.53 |
| Capital Expenditures | -460.50 | -496.90 | -533.75 | -570.73 | -607.49 | -643.65 | -678.82 | -712.59 | -744.58 | -774.36 |
| NWC Investment | -0.66 | -0.67 | -0.68 | -0.68 | -0.68 | -0.67 | -0.65 | -0.62 | -0.59 | -0.55 |
| (+) D&A | 242.78 | 261.97 | 281.40 | 300.90 | 320.28 | 339.34 | 357.88 | 375.69 | 392.55 | 408.25 |
| Free Cash Flow | 116.15 | 125.37 | 134.71 | 144.08 | 153.41 | 162.60 | 171.53 | 180.13 | 188.27 | 195.87 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 65,809,721.25 | 65,809,721.25 | 65,809,721.25 | 65,809,721.25 | 65,809,721.25 | 65,809,721.25 | 65,809,721.25 | 65,809,721.25 | 65,809,721.25 | 65,809,721.25 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 115.14 | 120.45 | 118.63 | 116.30 | 113.50 | 110.27 | 106.63 | 102.63 | 98.33 | 93.76 | Raw: 2,345.22 1,661.23 |
Raw: 2,994.27 1,372.31 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,245.25 | 2,467.95 |
| (-) Net Debt | -21.77 | -21.77 |
| Equity Value | 2,267.02 | 2,489.72 |
| (/) Shares Out | 65.81 | 65.81 |
| Fair Value | $34.45 | $37.83 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.58% | 73.58% |
| Buy Price | $9.10 | $10.00 |
| Current Price | $218.09 | $218.09 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.83% | -95.42% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 115.04 | 119.94 | 117.06 | 113.72 | 109.98 | 105.87 | 101.45 | 96.76 | 91.86 | 86.80 | Raw: 1,906.78 1,302.73 |
Raw: 2,434.49 1,028.17 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,878.46 | 2,086.63 |
| (-) Net Debt | -21.77 | -21.77 |
| Equity Value | 1,900.23 | 2,108.40 |
| (/) Shares Out | 65.81 | 65.81 |
| Fair Value | $28.87 | $32.04 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.58% | 73.58% |
| Buy Price | $7.63 | $8.46 |
| Current Price | $218.09 | $218.09 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -96.50% | -96.12% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 115.25 | 120.96 | 120.23 | 118.97 | 117.18 | 114.89 | 112.13 | 108.92 | 105.32 | 101.36 | Raw: 3,036.69 2,230.91 |
Raw: 3,877.10 1,929.75 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,823.49 | 3,064.95 |
| (-) Net Debt | -21.77 | -21.77 |
| Equity Value | 2,845.27 | 3,086.72 |
| (/) Shares Out | 65.81 | 65.81 |
| Fair Value | $43.23 | $46.90 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.58% | 73.58% |
| Buy Price | $11.42 | $12.39 |
| Current Price | $218.09 | $218.09 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.76% | -94.32% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,358.87 | 6,500.71 | 17,915.03 | 49,371.30 | 136,060.36 | 374,963.23 | 1,033,345.94 | 2,847,756.09 | 7,848,015.31 | 21,628,026.57 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 175.59% | 175.59% | 175.59% | 175.59% | 175.59% | 175.59% | 175.59% | 175.59% | 175.59% | 175.59% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.24 | 0.65 | 1.79 | 4.94 | 13.61 | 37.50 | 103.33 | 284.78 | 784.80 | 2,162.80 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.22 | 0.52 | 1.33 | 3.35 | 8.46 | 21.36 | 53.97 | 136.32 | 344.36 | 869.87 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-06-30 | $101.28 | 6.50% | $75.46 | -25.49% |
| 2018 | 2018-06-30 | $92.84 | 8.92% | $103.23 | 11.20% |
| 2017 | 2017-06-30 | $78.17 | 9.52% | $14.27 | -81.74% |
| 2016 | 2016-06-30 | $72.02 | 8.32% | $-396.89 | -651.08% |
| 2015 | 2015-06-30 | $61.59 | 5.96% | $45.83 | -25.58% |
| 2014 | 2014-06-30 | $76.13 | 10.94% | $29.75 | -60.92% |
| 2013 | 2013-06-30 | $43.95 | 18.31% | $-66.62 | -251.57% |
| 2012 | 2012-06-30 | $78.40 | 12.71% | $-50.25 | -164.10% |
| 2011 | 2011-06-30 | $58.57 | 2.92% | $-43.37 | -174.05% |
| 2010 | 2010-06-30 | $48.00 | -1.30% | $-58.32 | -221.50% |
| 2009 | 2009-06-30 | $41.69 | 3.71% | $-70.41 | -268.88% |
| 2008 | 2008-06-30 | $31.36 | 18.89% | $47.27 | 50.72% |
| 2007 | 2007-06-30 | $23.77 | 21.67% | $38.36 | 61.38% |
| 2006 | 2006-06-30 | $27.82 | 17.87% | $29.21 | 5.01% |
| 2005 | 2005-06-30 | $20.12 | 19.19% | $25.87 | 28.55% |
| 2004 | 2004-06-30 | $14.17 | 16.30% | $21.16 | 49.31% |
| 2003 | 2003-06-30 | $21.42 | 19.22% | $21.34 | -0.38% |
| 2002 | 2002-06-30 | $12.90 | 19.74% | $14.68 | 13.79% |
| 2001 | 2001-06-30 | $3.07 | 16.04% | $1.87 | -39.13% |
| 2000 | 2000-06-30 | $2.75 | 29.77% | $-11.41 | -514.89% |
| 1999 | 1999-06-30 | $4.56 | 21.76% | $-9.19 | -301.53% |
| 1998 | 1998-06-30 | $5.00 | 54.74% | $-4.34 | -186.74% |
| 1997 | 1997-06-30 | $8.50 | 60.97% | $-1.57 | -118.49% |
| 1996 | 1996-06-30 | $13.13 | 10.31% | $-4.50 | -134.28% |
| $25.04 - $27.43 | 8 |
| $27.43 - $29.82 | 26 |
| $29.82 - $32.21 | 93 |
| $32.21 - $34.60 | 145 |
| $34.60 - $36.99 | 205 |
| $36.99 - $39.39 | 159 |
| $39.39 - $41.78 | 117 |
| $41.78 - $44.17 | 99 |
| $44.17 - $46.56 | 55 |
| $46.56 - $48.95 | 32 |
| $48.95 - $51.34 | 21 |
| $51.34 - $53.73 | 14 |
| $53.73 - $56.12 | 5 |
| $56.12 - $58.51 | 10 |
| $58.51 - $60.90 | 2 |
| $60.90 - $63.29 | 0 |
| $63.29 - $65.68 | 5 |
| $65.68 - $68.07 | 3 |
| $68.07 - $70.46 | 0 |
| $70.46 - $72.85 | 0 |