Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $60.03 |
| 5Y Range | 30.94 – 47.42 |
| 5Y Selected | 39.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.33% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $7.32 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -87.81% |
| 10Y Range | 34.50 – 51.60 |
| 10Y Selected | 43.05 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.33% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $8.04 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.61% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0782 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.4768 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.3132 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3186 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.2694 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.2481 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0325 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.4977 |
| Safety Score | 0.1867 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.77% | 5.58% | 5.38% | 5.18% | 4.98% | 4.79% | 4.59% | 4.39% | 4.20% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,605.70 | 2,750.98 | 2,898.95 | 3,049.16 | 3,201.15 | 3,354.41 | 3,508.41 | 3,662.56 | 3,816.28 | 3,968.93 |
| EBITDA | 218.84 | 231.04 | 243.47 | 256.09 | 268.85 | 281.72 | 294.66 | 307.60 | 320.51 | 333.34 |
| D&A | -37.36 | -39.44 | -41.56 | -43.72 | -45.89 | -48.09 | -50.30 | -52.51 | -54.71 | -56.90 |
| EBIT | 181.49 | 191.60 | 201.91 | 212.37 | 222.96 | 233.63 | 244.36 | 255.10 | 265.80 | 276.43 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -39.44 | -41.64 | -43.88 | -46.16 | -48.46 | -50.78 | -53.11 | -55.44 | -57.77 | -60.08 |
| NOPAT | 142.04 | 149.96 | 158.03 | 166.21 | 174.50 | 182.85 | 191.25 | 199.65 | 208.03 | 216.35 |
| Capital Expenditures | -43.36 | -45.77 | -48.23 | -50.73 | -53.26 | -55.81 | -58.38 | -60.94 | -63.50 | -66.04 |
| NWC Investment | -18.06 | -18.45 | -18.79 | -19.07 | -19.30 | -19.46 | -19.55 | -19.57 | -19.52 | -19.38 |
| (+) D&A | 37.36 | 39.44 | 41.56 | 43.72 | 45.89 | 48.09 | 50.30 | 52.51 | 54.71 | 56.90 |
| Free Cash Flow | 117.99 | 125.18 | 132.57 | 140.12 | 147.83 | 155.67 | 163.62 | 171.65 | 179.73 | 187.83 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 50,911,493.25 | 50,911,493.25 | 50,911,493.25 | 50,911,493.25 | 50,911,493.25 | 50,911,493.25 | 50,911,493.25 | 50,911,493.25 | 50,911,493.25 | 50,911,493.25 |
| Metric | Oct-26 | Oct-27 | Oct-28 | Oct-29 | Oct-30 | Oct-31 | Oct-32 | Oct-33 | Oct-34 | Oct-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 10/31/25 | 11/1/26 | 11/1/27 | 11/1/28 | 11/1/29 | 11/1/30 | 11/1/31 | 11/1/32 | 11/1/33 | 11/1/34 |
| Period End | 10/31/26 | 10/31/27 | 10/31/28 | 10/31/29 | 10/31/30 | 10/31/31 | 10/31/32 | 10/31/33 | 10/31/34 | 10/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 5/1/26 | 5/2/27 | 5/1/28 | 5/2/29 | 5/2/30 | 5/2/31 | 5/1/32 | 5/2/33 | 5/2/34 | 5/2/35 |
| Time (t) | 0.29 | 1.29 | 2.29 | 3.29 | 4.29 | 5.29 | 6.29 | 7.30 | 8.30 | 9.30 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 115.05 | 111.88 | 108.60 | 105.22 | 101.75 | 98.21 | 94.62 | 90.90 | 87.25 | 83.58 | Raw: 2,203.37 1,451.93 |
Raw: 2,799.57 1,192.58 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,994.42 | 2,189.63 |
| (-) Net Debt | 91.08 | 91.08 |
| Equity Value | 1,903.35 | 2,098.55 |
| (/) Shares Out | 50.91 | 50.91 |
| Fair Value | $37.39 | $41.22 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.33% | 81.33% |
| Buy Price | $6.98 | $7.70 |
| Current Price | $60.03 | $60.03 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.37% | -87.18% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.88 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.41 | ||
| PV UFCF | 114.74 | 110.57 | 106.36 | 102.11 | 97.84 | 93.58 | 89.34 | 85.05 | 80.88 | 76.78 | Raw: 1,799.16 1,134.87 |
Raw: 2,286.00 890.51 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,666.49 | 1,847.75 |
| (-) Net Debt | 91.08 | 91.08 |
| Equity Value | 1,575.42 | 1,756.68 |
| (/) Shares Out | 50.91 | 50.91 |
| Fair Value | $30.94 | $34.50 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.33% | 81.33% |
| Buy Price | $5.78 | $6.44 |
| Current Price | $60.03 | $60.03 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -90.38% | -89.27% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 115.35 | 113.22 | 110.92 | 108.46 | 105.85 | 103.11 | 100.26 | 97.22 | 94.17 | 91.05 | Raw: 2,833.82 1,951.58 |
Raw: 3,600.61 1,678.66 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,505.37 | 2,718.28 |
| (-) Net Debt | 91.08 | 91.08 |
| Equity Value | 2,414.29 | 2,627.20 |
| (/) Shares Out | 50.91 | 50.91 |
| Fair Value | $47.42 | $51.60 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.33% | 81.33% |
| Buy Price | $8.85 | $9.63 |
| Current Price | $60.03 | $60.03 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -85.25% | -83.95% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 5,229.22 | 11,099.97 | 23,561.70 | 50,013.96 | 106,163.66 | 225,351.55 | 478,349.38 | 1,015,382.98 | 2,155,333.81 | 4,575,085.40 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 112.27% | 112.27% | 112.27% | 112.27% | 112.27% | 112.27% | 112.27% | 112.27% | 112.27% | 112.27% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.52 | 1.11 | 2.36 | 5.00 | 10.62 | 22.54 | 47.83 | 101.54 | 215.53 | 457.51 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.49 | 0.91 | 1.77 | 3.44 | 6.70 | 13.03 | 25.33 | 49.29 | 95.90 | 186.59 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-10-31 | $7.85 | 6.80% | $6.82 | -13.14% |
| 2019 | 2019-10-31 | $12.44 | 5.57% | $2.76 | -77.79% |
| 2018 | 2018-10-31 | $10.91 | 3.87% | $-28.68 | -362.87% |
| 2017 | 2017-10-31 | $25.80 | 0.50% | $-15.19 | -158.86% |
| 2016 | 2016-10-31 | $25.00 | -0.18% | $2.48 | -90.07% |
| 2015 | 2015-10-31 | $25.00 | 3.81% | $-0.41 | -101.63% |
| 2014 | 2014-10-31 | $25.00 | 9.01% | $-5.43 | -121.74% |
| 2013 | 2013-10-31 | $25.00 | 9.75% | $21.40 | -14.42% |
| $27.03 - $30.38 | 19 |
| $30.38 - $33.72 | 68 |
| $33.72 - $37.07 | 162 |
| $37.07 - $40.41 | 212 |
| $40.41 - $43.76 | 166 |
| $43.76 - $47.11 | 173 |
| $47.11 - $50.45 | 92 |
| $50.45 - $53.80 | 36 |
| $53.80 - $57.15 | 35 |
| $57.15 - $60.49 | 18 |
| $60.49 - $63.84 | 5 |
| $63.84 - $67.19 | 4 |
| $67.19 - $70.53 | 4 |
| $70.53 - $73.88 | 3 |
| $73.88 - $77.22 | 1 |
| $77.22 - $80.57 | 1 |
| $80.57 - $83.92 | 0 |
| $83.92 - $87.26 | 0 |
| $87.26 - $90.61 | 0 |
| $90.61 - $93.96 | 1 |