| Current Price | $5.49 |
| 5Y Range | 14.75 – 21.36 |
| 5Y Selected | 18.06 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.87% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $2.55 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -53.52% |
| 10Y Range | 17.48 – 25.08 |
| 10Y Selected | 21.28 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.87% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $3.01 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -45.24% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6663 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0403 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5217 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1874 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.4923 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0817 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6198 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0172 |
| Safety Score | 0.1413 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 11.89% | 11.02% | 10.14% | 9.26% | 8.38% | 7.51% | 6.63% | 5.75% | 4.88% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,583.28 | 1,757.70 | 1,935.91 | 2,115.21 | 2,292.57 | 2,464.70 | 2,628.13 | 2,779.35 | 2,914.90 | 3,031.50 |
| EBITDA | 389.25 | 432.13 | 475.94 | 520.02 | 563.62 | 605.94 | 646.12 | 683.30 | 716.62 | 745.29 |
| D&A | -187.29 | -207.93 | -229.01 | -250.22 | -271.20 | -291.56 | -310.89 | -328.78 | -344.82 | -358.61 |
| EBIT | 201.95 | 224.20 | 246.93 | 269.80 | 292.42 | 314.38 | 335.23 | 354.51 | 371.80 | 386.68 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -2.79 | -3.10 | -3.42 | -3.73 | -4.05 | -4.35 | -4.64 | -4.90 | -5.14 | -5.35 |
| NOPAT | 199.16 | 221.10 | 243.51 | 266.07 | 288.38 | 310.03 | 330.59 | 349.61 | 366.66 | 381.33 |
| Capital Expenditures | -186.21 | -206.73 | -227.69 | -248.77 | -269.63 | -289.88 | -309.10 | -326.88 | -342.83 | -356.54 |
| NWC Investment | -29.85 | -30.94 | -31.61 | -31.81 | -31.46 | -30.53 | -28.99 | -26.83 | -24.04 | -20.68 |
| (+) D&A | 187.29 | 207.93 | 229.01 | 250.22 | 271.20 | 291.56 | 310.89 | 328.78 | 344.82 | 358.61 |
| Free Cash Flow | 170.39 | 191.36 | 213.22 | 235.71 | 258.48 | 281.18 | 303.39 | 324.68 | 344.61 | 362.72 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 215,995,250.00 | 215,995,250.00 | 215,995,250.00 | 215,995,250.00 | 215,995,250.00 | 215,995,250.00 | 215,995,250.00 | 215,995,250.00 | 215,995,250.00 | 215,995,250.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 168.91 | 183.85 | 187.77 | 190.26 | 191.24 | 190.69 | 188.59 | 185.00 | 179.97 | 173.63 | Raw: 3,725.78 2,639.14 |
Raw: 5,228.18 2,396.14 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,561.17 | 4,236.05 |
| (-) Net Debt | -188.09 | -188.09 |
| Equity Value | 3,749.26 | 4,424.14 |
| (/) Shares Out | 216.00 | 216.00 |
| Fair Value | $17.36 | $20.48 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.87% | 85.87% |
| Buy Price | $2.45 | $2.89 |
| Current Price | $5.49 | $5.49 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -55.32% | -47.28% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 168.76 | 183.08 | 185.28 | 186.04 | 185.30 | 183.08 | 179.43 | 174.41 | 168.13 | 160.74 | Raw: 3,059.19 2,090.06 |
Raw: 4,292.79 1,812.99 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,998.52 | 3,587.23 |
| (-) Net Debt | -188.09 | -188.09 |
| Equity Value | 3,186.61 | 3,775.32 |
| (/) Shares Out | 216.00 | 216.00 |
| Fair Value | $14.75 | $17.48 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.87% | 85.87% |
| Buy Price | $2.08 | $2.47 |
| Current Price | $5.49 | $5.49 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -62.03% | -55.01% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 169.07 | 184.63 | 190.31 | 194.62 | 197.43 | 198.68 | 198.32 | 196.34 | 192.77 | 187.70 | Raw: 4,750.89 3,490.25 |
Raw: 6,666.66 3,318.19 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,426.31 | 5,228.06 |
| (-) Net Debt | -188.09 | -188.09 |
| Equity Value | 4,614.40 | 5,416.15 |
| (/) Shares Out | 216.00 | 216.00 |
| Fair Value | $21.36 | $25.08 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.87% | 85.87% |
| Buy Price | $3.02 | $3.54 |
| Current Price | $5.49 | $5.49 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -45.02% | -35.46% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 3,048.11 | 6,048.22 | 12,001.20 | 23,813.42 | 47,251.85 | 93,759.61 | 186,042.79 | 369,155.94 | 732,498.77 | 1,453,462.82 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 98.43% | 98.43% | 98.43% | 98.43% | 98.43% | 98.43% | 98.43% | 98.43% | 98.43% | 98.43% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.30 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 2.38 | 4.73 | 9.38 | 18.60 | 36.92 | 73.25 | 145.35 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.28 | 0.49 | 0.89 | 1.61 | 2.94 | 5.34 | 9.72 | 17.67 | 32.14 | 58.46 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $5.24 | 23.57% | $-7.68 | -246.52% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $9.87 | 15.30% | $20.28 | 105.46% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $25.53 | -4.99% | $1.33 | -94.78% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $19.81 | -22.67% | $2.22 | -88.77% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $11.95 | -6.35% | $16.75 | 40.13% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $13.04 | 7.81% | $-5.88 | -145.12% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $17.85 | -4.13% | $9.30 | -47.91% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $12.24 | -14.77% | $7.68 | -37.28% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $12.17 | -23.16% | $-1.59 | -113.09% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $12.08 | -4.46% | $-1.58 | -113.09% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $4.62 | 16.11% | $13.39 | 189.91% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $4.34 | 29.00% | $0.77 | -82.25% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $5.20 | 27.32% | $-23.03 | -542.89% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $7.50 | 21.50% | $-7.23 | -196.37% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $7.80 | 10.37% | $-0.65 | -108.31% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $3.31 | 9.83% | $0.17 | -94.84% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $1.45 | 23.21% | $3.81 | 162.48% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $1.53 | 23.78% | $1.00 | -34.45% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $2.32 | 25.04% | $1.98 | -14.86% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $1.50 | 14.26% | $-1.37 | -191.03% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $0.59 | 12.34% | $0.45 | -24.54% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $0.76 | 4.65% | $-0.42 | -155.75% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $1.22 | -0.70% | $0.71 | -41.69% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $0.77 | -0.13% | $0.28 | -63.83% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $0.47 | -1.58% | $-0.03 | -105.65% |
| $14.52 - $15.83 | 17 |
| $15.83 - $17.15 | 57 |
| $17.15 - $18.46 | 137 |
| $18.46 - $19.77 | 205 |
| $19.77 - $21.09 | 187 |
| $21.09 - $22.40 | 145 |
| $22.40 - $23.71 | 100 |
| $23.71 - $25.03 | 67 |
| $25.03 - $26.34 | 25 |
| $26.34 - $27.66 | 29 |
| $27.66 - $28.97 | 8 |
| $28.97 - $30.28 | 9 |
| $30.28 - $31.60 | 5 |
| $31.60 - $32.91 | 4 |
| $32.91 - $34.22 | 3 |
| $34.22 - $35.54 | 0 |
| $35.54 - $36.85 | 0 |
| $36.85 - $38.16 | 0 |
| $38.16 - $39.48 | 1 |
| $39.48 - $40.79 | 1 |