Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $746.36 |
| 5Y Range | 428.83 – 652.09 |
| 5Y Selected | 540.46 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 68.14% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $172.19 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.93% |
| 10Y Range | 531.54 – 800.52 |
| 10Y Selected | 666.03 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 68.14% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $212.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -71.57% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.2257 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8068 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0401 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5402 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0331 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4986 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0020 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5767 |
| Safety Score | 0.3186 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 13.50% | 12.45% | 11.39% | 10.33% | 9.28% | 8.22% | 7.17% | 6.11% | 5.06% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 16,119.40 | 18,125.49 | 20,189.91 | 22,276.32 | 24,343.18 | 26,344.82 | 28,232.94 | 29,958.35 | 31,472.94 | 32,731.85 |
| EBITDA | 4,772.98 | 5,366.99 | 5,978.27 | 6,596.06 | 7,208.06 | 7,800.75 | 8,359.83 | 8,870.72 | 9,319.20 | 9,691.96 |
| D&A | -428.67 | -482.02 | -536.92 | -592.41 | -647.37 | -700.60 | -750.82 | -796.70 | -836.98 | -870.46 |
| EBIT | 4,344.31 | 4,884.97 | 5,441.35 | 6,003.65 | 6,560.69 | 7,100.15 | 7,609.01 | 8,074.02 | 8,482.22 | 8,821.50 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -594.45 | -668.44 | -744.57 | -821.51 | -897.73 | -971.55 | -1,041.18 | -1,104.81 | -1,160.67 | -1,207.09 |
| NOPAT | 3,749.85 | 4,216.53 | 4,696.78 | 5,182.14 | 5,662.95 | 6,128.60 | 6,567.83 | 6,969.21 | 7,321.55 | 7,614.41 |
| Capital Expenditures | -999.36 | -1,123.73 | -1,251.72 | -1,381.07 | -1,509.21 | -1,633.31 | -1,750.37 | -1,857.34 | -1,951.24 | -2,029.29 |
| NWC Investment | -749.98 | -784.67 | -807.48 | -816.08 | -808.44 | -782.93 | -738.53 | -674.88 | -592.42 | -492.42 |
| (+) D&A | 428.67 | 482.02 | 536.92 | 592.41 | 647.37 | 700.60 | 750.82 | 796.70 | 836.98 | 870.46 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,429.19 | 2,790.15 | 3,174.50 | 3,577.39 | 3,992.68 | 4,412.96 | 4,829.75 | 5,233.69 | 5,614.87 | 5,963.16 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 110,200,000.00 | 110,200,000.00 | 110,200,000.00 | 110,200,000.00 | 110,200,000.00 | 110,200,000.00 | 110,200,000.00 | 110,200,000.00 | 110,200,000.00 | 110,200,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,408.13 | 2,680.60 | 2,795.52 | 2,887.60 | 2,954.05 | 2,992.73 | 3,002.24 | 2,982.03 | 2,932.42 | 2,854.61 | Raw: 61,073.64 43,261.27 |
Raw: 91,215.03 41,804.98 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 56,987.17 | 70,294.90 |
| (-) Net Debt | 184.80 | 184.80 |
| Equity Value | 56,802.37 | 70,110.10 |
| (/) Shares Out | 110.20 | 110.20 |
| Fair Value | $515.45 | $636.21 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 68.14% | 68.14% |
| Buy Price | $164.22 | $202.70 |
| Current Price | $746.36 | $746.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -78.00% | -72.84% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,405.93 | 2,669.37 | 2,758.53 | 2,823.51 | 2,862.25 | 2,873.38 | 2,856.33 | 2,811.34 | 2,739.46 | 2,642.55 | Raw: 49,650.65 33,921.76 |
Raw: 74,154.51 31,317.99 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 47,441.35 | 58,760.64 |
| (-) Net Debt | 184.80 | 184.80 |
| Equity Value | 47,256.55 | 58,575.84 |
| (/) Shares Out | 110.20 | 110.20 |
| Fair Value | $428.83 | $531.54 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 68.14% | 68.14% |
| Buy Price | $136.62 | $169.35 |
| Current Price | $746.36 | $746.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.69% | -77.31% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,410.35 | 2,691.98 | 2,833.36 | 2,953.76 | 3,049.68 | 3,118.19 | 3,157.04 | 3,164.80 | 3,140.94 | 3,085.88 | Raw: 79,093.66 58,106.37 |
Raw: 118,128.39 58,796.04 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 72,045.49 | 88,402.02 |
| (-) Net Debt | 184.80 | 184.80 |
| Equity Value | 71,860.69 | 88,217.22 |
| (/) Shares Out | 110.20 | 110.20 |
| Fair Value | $652.09 | $800.52 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 68.14% | 68.14% |
| Buy Price | $207.76 | $255.05 |
| Current Price | $746.36 | $746.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -72.16% | -65.83% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 35,283.83 | 87,378.30 | 216,387.15 | 535,869.89 | 1,327,049.85 | 3,286,359.91 | 8,138,474.54 | 20,154,447.39 | 49,911,288.35 | 123,602,332.36 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 147.64% | 147.64% | 147.64% | 147.64% | 147.64% | 147.64% | 147.64% | 147.64% | 147.64% | 147.64% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 3.53 | 8.74 | 21.64 | 53.59 | 132.70 | 328.64 | 813.85 | 2,015.44 | 4,991.13 | 12,360.23 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 3.28 | 7.05 | 16.01 | 36.34 | 82.49 | 187.25 | 425.04 | 964.81 | 2,190.04 | 4,971.22 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $375.48 | 8.09% | $399.20 | 6.32% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $373.50 | 17.97% | $509.68 | 36.46% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $375.96 | 22.59% | $341.02 | -9.29% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $367.09 | 24.99% | $349.95 | -4.67% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $542.87 | 14.42% | $160.56 | -70.42% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $410.25 | 13.80% | $101.51 | -75.26% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $275.24 | 20.62% | $137.62 | -50.00% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $171.07 | 24.89% | $-48.43 | -128.31% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $55.43 | 30.61% | $-112.08 | -302.21% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $32.83 | 46.53% | $-4.15 | -112.63% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $24.18 | 43.51% | $-169.23 | -799.89% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $18.36 | 35.70% | $-93.56 | -609.60% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $24.15 | 28.58% | $10.88 | -54.94% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $20.07 | 25.23% | $15.37 | -23.42% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $15.90 | 41.67% | $-47.81 | -400.68% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $9.21 | 37.98% | $-29.49 | -420.19% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $14.71 | 3.91% | $-14.56 | -198.99% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $18.51 | -0.48% | $-51.29 | -377.12% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $28.16 | 16.03% | $-44.86 | -259.29% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $35.27 | 34.73% | $-57.30 | -262.45% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $12.75 | 20.25% | $-21.13 | -265.75% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $7.38 | -11.53% | $-3.29 | -144.59% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $8.56 | -25.71% | $-0.43 | -104.98% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $16.13 | -12.61% | $-8.86 | -154.93% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $13.25 | 10.42% | $-24.42 | -284.30% |
| $438.67 - $487.87 | 27 |
| $487.87 - $537.06 | 96 |
| $537.06 - $586.26 | 163 |
| $586.26 - $635.45 | 183 |
| $635.45 - $684.64 | 157 |
| $684.64 - $733.84 | 137 |
| $733.84 - $783.03 | 87 |
| $783.03 - $832.23 | 59 |
| $832.23 - $881.42 | 35 |
| $881.42 - $930.62 | 25 |
| $930.62 - $979.81 | 8 |
| $979.81 - $1,029.01 | 6 |
| $1,029.01 - $1,078.20 | 5 |
| $1,078.20 - $1,127.40 | 5 |
| $1,127.40 - $1,176.59 | 3 |
| $1,176.59 - $1,225.78 | 2 |
| $1,225.78 - $1,274.98 | 0 |
| $1,274.98 - $1,324.17 | 0 |
| $1,324.17 - $1,373.37 | 1 |
| $1,373.37 - $1,422.56 | 1 |