Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $54.31 |
| 5Y Range | 14.45 – 20.65 |
| 5Y Selected | 17.55 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 40.10% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $10.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -80.65% |
| 10Y Range | 16.28 – 23.06 |
| 10Y Selected | 19.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 40.10% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $11.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -78.30% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9849 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9755 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7001 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7555 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9803 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8167 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4714 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7740 |
| Safety Score | 0.5990 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 12.25% | 11.33% | 10.41% | 9.50% | 8.58% | 7.66% | 6.75% | 5.83% | 4.92% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 84.40 | 93.96 | 103.74 | 113.60 | 123.34 | 132.80 | 141.76 | 150.03 | 157.40 | 163.70 |
| EBITDA | 26.72 | 29.75 | 32.85 | 35.97 | 39.06 | 42.05 | 44.89 | 47.51 | 49.84 | 51.84 |
| D&A | -10.46 | -11.65 | -12.86 | -14.08 | -15.29 | -16.47 | -17.58 | -18.60 | -19.52 | -20.30 |
| EBIT | 16.26 | 18.10 | 19.99 | 21.89 | 23.76 | 25.59 | 27.31 | 28.91 | 30.33 | 31.54 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -3.41 | -3.80 | -4.20 | -4.60 | -4.99 | -5.37 | -5.74 | -6.07 | -6.37 | -6.62 |
| NOPAT | 12.85 | 14.30 | 15.79 | 17.29 | 18.77 | 20.21 | 21.58 | 22.84 | 23.96 | 24.92 |
| Capital Expenditures | -13.24 | -14.74 | -16.28 | -17.82 | -19.35 | -20.84 | -22.24 | -23.54 | -24.70 | -25.68 |
| NWC Investment | -0.50 | -0.52 | -0.53 | -0.54 | -0.53 | -0.52 | -0.49 | -0.45 | -0.40 | -0.34 |
| (+) D&A | 10.46 | 11.65 | 12.86 | 14.08 | 15.29 | 16.47 | 17.58 | 18.60 | 19.52 | 20.30 |
| Free Cash Flow | 9.57 | 10.69 | 11.84 | 13.01 | 14.18 | 15.33 | 16.42 | 17.45 | 18.38 | 19.19 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 14,447,369.25 | 14,447,369.25 | 14,447,369.25 | 14,447,369.25 | 14,447,369.25 | 14,447,369.25 | 14,447,369.25 | 14,447,369.25 | 14,447,369.25 | 14,447,369.25 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 9.48 | 10.27 | 10.43 | 10.51 | 10.49 | 10.39 | 10.21 | 9.94 | 9.60 | 9.18 | Raw: 219.90 155.77 |
Raw: 297.46 136.33 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 206.95 | 236.84 |
| (-) Net Debt | -36.42 | -36.42 |
| Equity Value | 243.36 | 273.25 |
| (/) Shares Out | 14.45 | 14.45 |
| Fair Value | $16.84 | $18.91 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 40.10% | 40.10% |
| Buy Price | $10.09 | $11.33 |
| Current Price | $54.31 | $54.31 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.42% | -79.14% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 9.47 | 10.23 | 10.29 | 10.27 | 10.17 | 9.98 | 9.71 | 9.37 | 8.97 | 8.50 | Raw: 178.36 121.85 |
Raw: 241.27 101.89 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 172.28 | 198.86 |
| (-) Net Debt | -36.42 | -36.42 |
| Equity Value | 208.70 | 235.27 |
| (/) Shares Out | 14.45 | 14.45 |
| Fair Value | $14.45 | $16.28 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 40.10% | 40.10% |
| Buy Price | $8.65 | $9.75 |
| Current Price | $54.31 | $54.31 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.07% | -82.04% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 9.49 | 10.31 | 10.57 | 10.75 | 10.83 | 10.83 | 10.74 | 10.55 | 10.28 | 9.93 | Raw: 285.84 209.99 |
Raw: 386.66 192.45 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 261.94 | 296.73 |
| (-) Net Debt | -36.42 | -36.42 |
| Equity Value | 298.36 | 333.14 |
| (/) Shares Out | 14.45 | 14.45 |
| Fair Value | $20.65 | $23.06 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 40.10% | 40.10% |
| Buy Price | $12.37 | $13.81 |
| Current Price | $54.31 | $54.31 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.22% | -74.57% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 222.89 | 574.82 | 1,482.46 | 3,823.23 | 9,860.04 | 25,428.85 | 65,580.48 | 169,130.72 | 436,184.66 | 1,124,911.29 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 157.90% | 157.90% | 157.90% | 157.90% | 157.90% | 157.90% | 157.90% | 157.90% | 157.90% | 157.90% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.38 | 0.99 | 2.54 | 6.56 | 16.91 | 43.62 | 112.49 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.26 | 0.61 | 1.45 | 3.43 | 8.10 | 19.14 | 45.24 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $18.51 | 14.51% | $-10.42 | -156.29% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $6.74 | 11.36% | $-32.50 | -582.13% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $46.40 | 20.01% | $-56.38 | -221.51% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $46.40 | 34.82% | $-92.19 | -298.69% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $46.40 | 49.85% | $-84.97 | -283.13% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $46.40 | 52.40% | $-126.47 | -372.56% |
| $13.40 - $14.55 | 10 |
| $14.55 - $15.71 | 40 |
| $15.71 - $16.86 | 112 |
| $16.86 - $18.01 | 184 |
| $18.01 - $19.16 | 190 |
| $19.16 - $20.31 | 152 |
| $20.31 - $21.47 | 117 |
| $21.47 - $22.62 | 63 |
| $22.62 - $23.77 | 45 |
| $23.77 - $24.92 | 31 |
| $24.92 - $26.08 | 19 |
| $26.08 - $27.23 | 12 |
| $27.23 - $28.38 | 6 |
| $28.38 - $29.53 | 12 |
| $29.53 - $30.68 | 2 |
| $30.68 - $31.84 | 1 |
| $31.84 - $32.99 | 2 |
| $32.99 - $34.14 | 0 |
| $34.14 - $35.29 | 1 |
| $35.29 - $36.45 | 1 |