| Current Price | $281.51 |
| 5Y Range | 154.08 – 262.60 |
| 5Y Selected | 208.34 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.90% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $29.38 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -89.56% |
| 10Y Range | 165.58 – 267.08 |
| 10Y Selected | 216.33 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.90% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $30.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -89.16% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9245 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.1018 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9505 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0214 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9663 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0108 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.9894 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0242 |
| Safety Score | 0.1410 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 20.08% | 18.29% | 16.50% | 14.72% | 12.93% | 11.15% | 9.36% | 7.57% | 5.79% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 19,794.58 | 23,415.02 | 27,279.39 | 31,294.24 | 35,340.99 | 39,279.76 | 42,955.86 | 46,208.70 | 48,882.45 | 50,837.75 |
| EBITDA | 9,030.56 | 10,682.26 | 12,445.23 | 14,276.87 | 16,123.05 | 17,919.97 | 19,597.05 | 21,081.04 | 22,300.85 | 23,192.88 |
| D&A | -2,666.53 | -3,154.24 | -3,674.81 | -4,215.66 | -4,760.79 | -5,291.39 | -5,786.60 | -6,224.79 | -6,584.97 | -6,848.37 |
| EBIT | 6,364.03 | 7,528.01 | 8,770.42 | 10,061.21 | 11,362.25 | 12,628.58 | 13,810.46 | 14,856.26 | 15,715.88 | 16,344.52 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,336.45 | -1,580.88 | -1,841.79 | -2,112.85 | -2,386.07 | -2,652.00 | -2,900.20 | -3,119.81 | -3,300.33 | -3,432.35 |
| NOPAT | 5,027.58 | 5,947.13 | 6,928.63 | 7,948.36 | 8,976.18 | 9,976.58 | 10,910.26 | 11,736.44 | 12,415.55 | 12,912.17 |
| Capital Expenditures | -5,656.21 | -6,690.73 | -7,794.96 | -8,942.19 | -10,098.53 | -11,224.01 | -12,274.44 | -13,203.92 | -13,967.93 | -14,526.65 |
| NWC Investment | 1,412.86 | 1,545.56 | 1,649.69 | 1,713.94 | 1,727.55 | 1,681.45 | 1,569.32 | 1,388.63 | 1,141.42 | 834.71 |
| (+) D&A | 2,666.53 | 3,154.24 | 3,674.81 | 4,215.66 | 4,760.79 | 5,291.39 | 5,786.60 | 6,224.79 | 6,584.97 | 6,848.37 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3,450.76 | 3,956.20 | 4,458.18 | 4,935.76 | 5,366.00 | 5,725.41 | 5,991.74 | 6,145.94 | 6,174.00 | 6,068.60 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 275,500,000.00 | 275,500,000.00 | 275,500,000.00 | 275,500,000.00 | 275,500,000.00 | 275,500,000.00 | 275,500,000.00 | 275,500,000.00 | 275,500,000.00 | 275,500,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,420.84 | 3,800.87 | 3,925.95 | 3,984.05 | 3,970.13 | 3,882.79 | 3,724.55 | 3,501.81 | 3,224.43 | 2,905.08 | Raw: 77,706.48 55,043.08 |
Raw: 87,880.94 40,276.92 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 74,144.93 | 76,617.42 |
| (-) Net Debt | 19,927.50 | 19,927.50 |
| Equity Value | 54,217.43 | 56,689.92 |
| (/) Shares Out | 275.50 | 275.50 |
| Fair Value | $196.80 | $205.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.90% | 85.90% |
| Buy Price | $27.75 | $29.01 |
| Current Price | $281.51 | $281.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -90.14% | -89.69% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,417.72 | 3,784.95 | 3,874.00 | 3,895.62 | 3,846.75 | 3,727.95 | 3,543.54 | 3,301.36 | 3,012.26 | 2,689.27 | Raw: 63,755.23 43,558.13 |
Raw: 72,102.99 30,451.56 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 62,377.18 | 65,544.99 |
| (-) Net Debt | 19,927.50 | 19,927.50 |
| Equity Value | 42,449.68 | 45,617.49 |
| (/) Shares Out | 275.50 | 275.50 |
| Fair Value | $154.08 | $165.58 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.90% | 85.90% |
| Buy Price | $21.73 | $23.35 |
| Current Price | $281.51 | $281.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.28% | -91.71% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,424.00 | 3,817.00 | 3,979.09 | 4,075.33 | 4,098.66 | 4,045.57 | 3,916.60 | 3,716.43 | 3,453.72 | 3,140.44 | Raw: 99,202.88 72,879.67 |
Raw: 112,191.96 55,841.30 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 92,273.74 | 93,508.14 |
| (-) Net Debt | 19,927.50 | 19,927.50 |
| Equity Value | 72,346.24 | 73,580.64 |
| (/) Shares Out | 275.50 | 275.50 |
| Fair Value | $262.60 | $267.08 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.90% | 85.90% |
| Buy Price | $37.03 | $37.66 |
| Current Price | $281.51 | $281.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.85% | -86.62% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 43,002.89 | 106,053.16 | 261,546.87 | 645,023.37 | 1,590,747.94 | 3,923,081.12 | 9,675,049.80 | 23,860,477.42 | 58,844,387.86 | 145,121,236.33 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 146.62% | 146.62% | 146.62% | 146.62% | 146.62% | 146.62% | 146.62% | 146.62% | 146.62% | 146.62% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 4.30 | 10.61 | 26.15 | 64.50 | 159.07 | 392.31 | 967.50 | 2,386.05 | 5,884.44 | 14,512.12 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 4.00 | 8.56 | 19.35 | 43.74 | 98.88 | 223.53 | 505.29 | 1,142.22 | 2,582.01 | 5,836.70 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $133.51 | 58.15% | $367.44 | 175.22% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $97.79 | 12.88% | $-72.16 | -173.79% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $119.28 | -26.77% | $9.75 | -91.83% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $82.04 | -52.87% | $-42.86 | -152.25% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $101.21 | -24.39% | $-31.22 | -130.85% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $82.43 | 7.83% | $-43.68 | -152.99% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $47.42 | 5.05% | $19.54 | -58.80% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $34.00 | 3.22% | $-30.89 | -190.85% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $24.77 | 2.66% | $-15.96 | -164.43% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $47.00 | 2.01% | $-80.68 | -271.66% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $25.28 | 3.39% | $-171.38 | -777.92% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $13.75 | 6.65% | $-139.34 | -1,113.37% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $42.44 | 5.16% | $-30.01 | -170.71% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $41.38 | 3.94% | $-44.91 | -208.53% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $45.06 | 4.22% | $40.24 | -10.70% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $54.44 | 5.04% | $12.03 | -77.89% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $34.79 | 7.72% | $-47.09 | -235.34% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $16.70 | 8.61% | $-6.56 | -139.29% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $16.20 | 8.62% | $-150.43 | -1,028.56% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $25.19 | 10.06% | $-87.86 | -448.79% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $49.31 | 10.22% | $-63.60 | -228.98% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $37.00 | 7.98% | $-28.39 | -176.73% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $26.66 | 4.57% | $-116.67 | -537.62% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $11.69 | 4.73% | $-72.15 | -717.18% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $11.00 | 7.87% | $-41.14 | -473.96% |
| $103.82 - $122.07 | 2 |
| $122.07 - $140.33 | 14 |
| $140.33 - $158.59 | 56 |
| $158.59 - $176.84 | 137 |
| $176.84 - $195.10 | 193 |
| $195.10 - $213.36 | 176 |
| $213.36 - $231.62 | 145 |
| $231.62 - $249.87 | 98 |
| $249.87 - $268.13 | 61 |
| $268.13 - $286.39 | 51 |
| $286.39 - $304.64 | 23 |
| $304.64 - $322.90 | 15 |
| $322.90 - $341.16 | 11 |
| $341.16 - $359.41 | 5 |
| $359.41 - $377.67 | 3 |
| $377.67 - $395.93 | 5 |
| $395.93 - $414.19 | 2 |
| $414.19 - $432.44 | 1 |
| $432.44 - $450.70 | 0 |
| $450.70 - $468.96 | 1 |