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Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$281.51
5Y Range154.08 – 262.60
5Y Selected208.34
(-) Safety Margin85.90%
5Y Buy Price$29.38
Upside (to Buy Price)-89.56%
10Y Range165.58 – 267.08
10Y Selected216.33
(-) Safety Margin85.90%
10Y Buy Price$30.50
Upside (to Buy Price)-89.16%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9245
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.1018
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.9505
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0214
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.9663
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.0108
FCF R2 (5Y)0.9894
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0242
Safety Score0.1410

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth20.08%18.29%16.50%14.72%12.93%11.15%9.36%7.57%5.79%4.00%
Revenue19,794.5823,415.0227,279.3931,294.2435,340.9939,279.7642,955.8646,208.7048,882.4550,837.75
EBITDA9,030.5610,682.2612,445.2314,276.8716,123.0517,919.9719,597.0521,081.0422,300.8523,192.88
D&A-2,666.53-3,154.24-3,674.81-4,215.66-4,760.79-5,291.39-5,786.60-6,224.79-6,584.97-6,848.37
EBIT6,364.037,528.018,770.4210,061.2111,362.2512,628.5813,810.4614,856.2615,715.8816,344.52
Pro forma Taxes-1,336.45-1,580.88-1,841.79-2,112.85-2,386.07-2,652.00-2,900.20-3,119.81-3,300.33-3,432.35
NOPAT5,027.585,947.136,928.637,948.368,976.189,976.5810,910.2611,736.4412,415.5512,912.17
Capital Expenditures-5,656.21-6,690.73-7,794.96-8,942.19-10,098.53-11,224.01-12,274.44-13,203.92-13,967.93-14,526.65
NWC Investment1,412.861,545.561,649.691,713.941,727.551,681.451,569.321,388.631,141.42834.71
(+) D&A2,666.533,154.243,674.814,215.664,760.795,291.395,786.606,224.796,584.976,848.37
Free Cash Flow3,450.763,956.204,458.184,935.765,366.005,725.415,991.746,145.946,174.006,068.60
Diluted Shares Outstanding275,500,000.00275,500,000.00275,500,000.00275,500,000.00275,500,000.00275,500,000.00275,500,000.00275,500,000.00275,500,000.00275,500,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.05%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF3,420.843,800.873,925.953,984.053,970.133,882.793,724.553,501.813,224.432,905.08
Raw: 77,706.48
55,043.08
Raw: 87,880.94
40,276.92

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value74,144.9376,617.42
(-) Net Debt19,927.5019,927.50
Equity Value54,217.4356,689.92
(/) Shares Out275.50275.50
Fair Value$196.80$205.77
(-) Safety Margin85.90%85.90%
Buy Price$27.75$29.01
Current Price$281.51$281.51
Upside (to Buy Price)-90.14%-89.69%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.55%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF3,417.723,784.953,874.003,895.623,846.753,727.953,543.543,301.363,012.262,689.27
Raw: 63,755.23
43,558.13
Raw: 72,102.99
30,451.56

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value62,377.1865,544.99
(-) Net Debt19,927.5019,927.50
Equity Value42,449.6845,617.49
(/) Shares Out275.50275.50
Fair Value$154.08$165.58
(-) Safety Margin85.90%85.90%
Buy Price$21.73$23.35
Current Price$281.51$281.51
Upside (to Buy Price)-92.28%-91.71%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.55%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF3,424.003,817.003,979.094,075.334,098.664,045.573,916.603,716.433,453.723,140.44
Raw: 99,202.88
72,879.67
Raw: 112,191.96
55,841.30

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value92,273.7493,508.14
(-) Net Debt19,927.5019,927.50
Equity Value72,346.2473,580.64
(/) Shares Out275.50275.50
Fair Value$262.60$267.08
(-) Safety Margin85.90%85.90%
Buy Price$37.03$37.66
Current Price$281.51$281.51
Upside (to Buy Price)-86.85%-86.62%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$281.51
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH146.62%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue43,002.89106,053.16261,546.87645,023.371,590,747.943,923,081.129,675,049.8023,860,477.4258,844,387.86145,121,236.33
Constant Implied Growth146.62%146.62%146.62%146.62%146.62%146.62%146.62%146.62%146.62%146.62%
Implied Free Cash Flow4.3010.6126.1564.50159.07392.31967.502,386.055,884.4414,512.12
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF4.008.5619.3543.7498.88223.53505.291,142.222,582.015,836.70

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$133.5158.15%$367.44175.22%
20182018-12-31$97.7912.88%$-72.16-173.79%
20172017-12-31$119.28-26.77%$9.75-91.83%
20162016-12-31$82.04-52.87%$-42.86-152.25%
20152015-12-31$101.21-24.39%$-31.22-130.85%
20142014-12-31$82.437.83%$-43.68-152.99%
20132013-12-31$47.425.05%$19.54-58.80%
20122012-12-31$34.003.22%$-30.89-190.85%
20112011-12-31$24.772.66%$-15.96-164.43%
20102010-12-31$47.002.01%$-80.68-271.66%
20092009-12-31$25.283.39%$-171.38-777.92%
20082008-12-31$13.756.65%$-139.34-1,113.37%
20072007-12-31$42.445.16%$-30.01-170.71%
20062006-12-31$41.383.94%$-44.91-208.53%
20052005-12-31$45.064.22%$40.24-10.70%
20042004-12-31$54.445.04%$12.03-77.89%
20032003-12-31$34.797.72%$-47.09-235.34%
20022002-12-31$16.708.61%$-6.56-139.29%
20012001-12-31$16.208.62%$-150.43-1,028.56%
20002000-12-31$25.1910.06%$-87.86-448.79%
19991999-12-31$49.3110.22%$-63.60-228.98%
19981998-12-31$37.007.98%$-28.39-176.73%
19971997-12-31$26.664.57%$-116.67-537.62%
19961996-12-31$11.694.73%$-72.15-717.18%
19951995-12-31$11.007.87%$-41.14-473.96%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$213.11
Median
$204.96
10th Percentile
$162.97
90th Percentile
$274.38

Fair Value Distribution

$103.82 - $122.07
2
$122.07 - $140.33
14
$140.33 - $158.59
56
$158.59 - $176.84
137
$176.84 - $195.10
193
$195.10 - $213.36
176
$213.36 - $231.62
145
$231.62 - $249.87
98
$249.87 - $268.13
61
$268.13 - $286.39
51
$286.39 - $304.64
23
$304.64 - $322.90
15
$322.90 - $341.16
11
$341.16 - $359.41
5
$359.41 - $377.67
3
$377.67 - $395.93
5
$395.93 - $414.19
2
$414.19 - $432.44
1
$432.44 - $450.70
0
$450.70 - $468.96
1