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Rana Gruber ASA

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$68.90
5Y Range425.92 – 900.32
5Y Selected663.12
(-) Safety Margin72.14%
5Y Buy Price$208.15
Upside (to Buy Price)202.11%
10Y Range472.70 – 972.28
10Y Selected722.49
(-) Safety Margin72.14%
10Y Buy Price$226.79
Upside (to Buy Price)229.16%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.1718
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.7896
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0136
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.6340
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0234
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6386
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1642
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1567
Safety Score0.3139

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth6.91%6.59%6.26%5.94%5.62%5.29%4.97%4.65%4.32%4.00%
Revenue1,779.431,896.612,015.382,135.072,254.972,374.322,492.312,608.112,720.862,829.70
EBITDA1,129.851,204.251,279.661,355.661,431.791,507.571,582.491,656.021,727.611,796.71
D&A-183.09-195.15-207.37-219.68-232.02-244.30-256.44-268.36-279.96-291.16
EBIT946.751,009.101,072.291,135.971,199.771,263.271,326.051,387.661,447.651,505.55
Pro forma Taxes-215.42-229.61-243.99-258.48-272.99-287.44-301.72-315.74-329.39-342.57
NOPAT731.33779.49828.31877.50926.78975.831,024.321,071.911,118.251,162.98
Capital Expenditures-219.74-234.21-248.88-263.66-278.47-293.21-307.78-322.08-336.00-349.44
NWC Investment-5.01-5.10-5.17-5.21-5.22-5.20-5.14-5.04-4.91-4.74
(+) D&A183.09195.15207.37219.68232.02244.30256.44268.36279.96291.16
Free Cash Flow689.67735.32781.62828.31875.11921.73967.851,013.151,057.301,099.96
Diluted Shares Outstanding37,104,238.7537,104,238.7537,104,238.7537,104,238.7537,104,238.7537,104,238.7537,104,238.7537,104,238.7537,104,238.7537,104,238.75

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.35%Terminal Growth: 2.39%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF685.44715.23714.87711.90707.22700.42691.56680.71667.96653.42
Raw: 22,657.52
17,755.71
Raw: 28,479.19
16,404.89

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value21,290.3823,333.63
(-) Net Debt23.4323.43
Equity Value21,266.9523,310.20
(/) Shares Out37.1037.10
Fair Value$573.17$628.24
(-) Safety Margin72.14%72.14%
Buy Price$159.68$175.03
Current Price$68.90$68.90
Upside (to Buy Price)131.76%154.03%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.35%Terminal Growth: 1.89%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF684.80712.23705.24695.70684.69671.79657.11640.77622.91603.68
Raw: 16,346.81
12,344.20
Raw: 20,547.00
10,883.67

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value15,826.8617,562.58
(-) Net Debt23.4323.43
Equity Value15,803.4317,539.15
(/) Shares Out37.1037.10
Fair Value$425.92$472.70
(-) Safety Margin72.14%72.14%
Buy Price$118.66$131.69
Current Price$68.90$68.90
Upside (to Buy Price)72.22%91.14%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.35%Terminal Growth: 2.89%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.710.680.64
PV UFCF686.09718.28724.73728.64730.72730.56728.17723.54716.73707.79
Raw: 36,680.44
29,840.62
Raw: 46,105.18
28,904.00

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value33,429.0936,099.27
(-) Net Debt23.4323.43
Equity Value33,405.6636,075.84
(/) Shares Out37.1037.10
Fair Value$900.32$972.28
(-) Safety Margin72.14%72.14%
Buy Price$250.83$270.88
Current Price$68.90$68.90
Upside (to Buy Price)264.05%293.15%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$68.90
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH102.01%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue3,149.836,363.1112,854.3825,967.6752,458.37105,973.33214,081.14432,474.22873,659.161,764,915.22
Constant Implied Growth102.01%102.01%102.01%102.01%102.01%102.01%102.01%102.01%102.01%102.01%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.310.641.292.605.2510.6021.4143.2587.37176.49
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.710.670.630.590.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF0.300.551.041.973.757.1213.5225.6948.8092.70

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$65.903.13%$-1.05-101.59%
20182018-12-31$65.9010.43%$38.74-41.22%
20172017-12-31$65.9015.83%$55.43-15.89%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$685.09
Median
$624.81
10th Percentile
$468.09
90th Percentile
$966.36

Fair Value Distribution

$339.80 - $465.98
96
$465.98 - $592.16
339
$592.16 - $718.34
262
$718.34 - $844.52
127
$844.52 - $970.70
79
$970.70 - $1,096.88
32
$1,096.88 - $1,223.06
22
$1,223.06 - $1,349.24
20
$1,349.24 - $1,475.42
7
$1,475.42 - $1,601.60
3
$1,601.60 - $1,727.78
7
$1,727.78 - $1,853.96
1
$1,853.96 - $1,980.14
0
$1,980.14 - $2,106.32
2
$2,106.32 - $2,232.50
0
$2,232.50 - $2,358.68
1
$2,358.68 - $2,484.85
1
$2,484.85 - $2,611.03
0
$2,611.03 - $2,737.21
0
$2,737.21 - $2,863.39
1