Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $176.12 |
| 5Y Range | 123.54 – 192.04 |
| 5Y Selected | 157.79 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.09% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $47.19 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -73.20% |
| 10Y Range | 141.16 – 214.47 |
| 10Y Selected | 177.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.09% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $53.18 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.80% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.2793 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7837 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.3011 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2915 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0202 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.5789 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.7616 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.6764 |
| Safety Score | 0.2991 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 9.90% | 9.25% | 8.59% | 7.94% | 7.28% | 6.62% | 5.97% | 5.31% | 4.66% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 48,669.26 | 53,169.57 | 57,737.31 | 62,318.80 | 66,855.11 | 71,283.17 | 75,537.02 | 79,549.30 | 83,252.99 | 86,583.11 |
| EBITDA | 14,974.23 | 16,358.85 | 17,764.22 | 19,173.82 | 20,569.53 | 21,931.92 | 23,240.72 | 24,475.19 | 25,614.71 | 26,639.30 |
| D&A | -2,440.35 | -2,666.01 | -2,895.04 | -3,124.76 | -3,352.22 | -3,574.25 | -3,787.55 | -3,988.73 | -4,174.44 | -4,341.42 |
| EBIT | 12,533.87 | 13,692.85 | 14,869.18 | 16,049.06 | 17,217.30 | 18,357.67 | 19,453.17 | 20,486.46 | 21,440.28 | 22,297.89 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -3,379.15 | -3,691.61 | -4,008.75 | -4,326.85 | -4,641.81 | -4,949.25 | -5,244.60 | -5,523.18 | -5,780.33 | -6,011.54 |
| NOPAT | 9,154.72 | 10,001.23 | 10,860.43 | 11,722.21 | 12,575.50 | 13,408.42 | 14,208.57 | 14,963.28 | 15,659.95 | 16,286.35 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,886.40 | -2,060.83 | -2,237.87 | -2,415.45 | -2,591.28 | -2,762.90 | -2,927.78 | -3,083.30 | -3,226.85 | -3,355.92 |
| NWC Investment | -530.36 | -544.27 | -552.43 | -554.09 | -548.63 | -535.53 | -514.46 | -485.25 | -447.93 | -402.75 |
| (+) D&A | 2,440.35 | 2,666.01 | 2,895.04 | 3,124.76 | 3,352.22 | 3,574.25 | 3,787.55 | 3,988.73 | 4,174.44 | 4,341.42 |
| Free Cash Flow | 9,178.32 | 10,062.14 | 10,965.17 | 11,877.44 | 12,787.82 | 13,684.23 | 14,553.87 | 15,383.46 | 16,159.61 | 16,869.09 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,110,250,000.00 | 1,110,250,000.00 | 1,110,250,000.00 | 1,110,250,000.00 | 1,110,250,000.00 | 1,110,250,000.00 | 1,110,250,000.00 | 1,110,250,000.00 | 1,110,250,000.00 | 1,110,250,000.00 |
| Metric | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | Sep-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/28/25 | 9/29/26 | 9/29/27 | 9/29/28 | 9/29/29 | 9/29/30 | 9/29/31 | 9/29/32 | 9/29/33 | 9/29/34 |
| Period End | 9/28/26 | 9/28/27 | 9/28/28 | 9/28/29 | 9/28/30 | 9/28/31 | 9/28/32 | 9/28/33 | 9/28/34 | 9/28/35 |
| Mid-Point | 3/29/26 | 3/30/27 | 3/29/28 | 3/30/29 | 3/30/30 | 3/30/31 | 3/29/32 | 3/30/33 | 3/30/34 | 3/30/35 |
| Time (t) | 0.20 | 1.20 | 2.20 | 3.20 | 4.20 | 5.20 | 6.20 | 7.21 | 8.21 | 9.21 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | ||
| PV UFCF | 9,019.86 | 9,063.80 | 9,053.54 | 8,988.95 | 8,870.86 | 8,701.08 | 8,482.31 | 8,210.98 | 7,905.97 | 7,564.83 | Raw: 195,248.87 129,673.02 |
Raw: 257,563.18 110,581.57 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 174,670.03 | 196,443.76 |
| (-) Net Debt | 7,978.75 | 7,978.75 |
| Equity Value | 166,691.28 | 188,465.01 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,110.25 | 1,110.25 |
| Fair Value | $150.14 | $169.75 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.09% | 70.09% |
| Buy Price | $44.91 | $50.77 |
| Current Price | $176.12 | $176.12 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -74.50% | -71.17% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.41 | ||
| PV UFCF | 9,003.42 | 8,965.10 | 8,873.62 | 8,730.29 | 8,537.34 | 8,297.88 | 8,015.78 | 7,688.20 | 7,335.36 | 6,955.10 | Raw: 158,780.22 101,025.98 |
Raw: 209,455.44 82,302.57 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 145,135.74 | 164,704.66 |
| (-) Net Debt | 7,978.75 | 7,978.75 |
| Equity Value | 137,156.99 | 156,725.91 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,110.25 | 1,110.25 |
| Fair Value | $123.54 | $141.16 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.09% | 70.09% |
| Buy Price | $36.95 | $42.22 |
| Current Price | $176.12 | $176.12 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -79.02% | -76.03% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 9,036.49 | 9,164.51 | 9,238.82 | 9,257.77 | 9,220.66 | 9,127.85 | 8,980.67 | 8,774.63 | 8,526.83 | 8,234.38 | Raw: 252,732.27 175,274.08 |
Raw: 333,392.60 156,526.00 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 221,192.33 | 246,088.62 |
| (-) Net Debt | 7,978.75 | 7,978.75 |
| Equity Value | 213,213.58 | 238,109.87 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,110.25 | 1,110.25 |
| Fair Value | $192.04 | $214.47 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.09% | 70.09% |
| Buy Price | $57.44 | $64.15 |
| Current Price | $176.12 | $176.12 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -67.39% | -63.58% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 106,828.66 | 257,708.50 | 621,684.01 | 1,499,721.60 | 3,617,858.68 | 8,727,554.11 | 21,053,945.84 | 50,789,560.26 | 122,522,374.26 | 295,567,280.28 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 141.24% | 141.24% | 141.24% | 141.24% | 141.24% | 141.24% | 141.24% | 141.24% | 141.24% | 141.24% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 10.68 | 25.77 | 62.17 | 149.97 | 361.79 | 872.76 | 2,105.39 | 5,078.96 | 12,252.24 | 29,556.73 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 10.05 | 21.28 | 47.05 | 104.04 | 230.04 | 508.66 | 1,123.76 | 2,484.84 | 5,494.43 | 12,149.18 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-09-30 | $117.68 | 4.97% | $64.64 | -45.08% |
| 2019 | 2019-09-30 | $76.28 | 11.20% | $125.01 | 63.89% |
| 2018 | 2018-09-30 | $72.60 | 15.79% | $59.04 | -18.68% |
| 2017 | 2017-09-30 | $51.84 | 22.51% | $111.83 | 115.72% |
| 2016 | 2016-09-30 | $68.50 | 16.41% | $134.63 | 96.54% |
| 2015 | 2015-09-30 | $53.73 | 8.19% | $57.64 | 7.28% |
| 2014 | 2014-09-30 | $74.77 | 4.78% | $89.56 | 19.78% |
| 2013 | 2013-09-30 | $67.32 | -0.60% | $69.60 | 3.38% |
| 2012 | 2012-09-30 | $61.91 | 0.89% | $45.63 | -26.29% |
| 2011 | 2011-09-30 | $48.63 | 7.64% | $57.08 | 17.37% |
| 2010 | 2010-09-30 | $45.13 | 14.35% | $62.80 | 39.16% |
| 2009 | 2009-09-30 | $44.98 | 21.86% | $144.96 | 222.28% |
| 2008 | 2008-09-30 | $42.97 | 21.90% | $50.16 | 16.74% |
| 2007 | 2007-09-30 | $42.09 | 13.59% | $49.72 | 18.12% |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | $36.35 | 10.27% | $37.14 | 2.17% |
| 2005 | 2005-09-30 | $44.75 | 9.40% | $30.30 | -32.30% |
| 2004 | 2004-09-30 | $39.04 | 16.02% | $39.76 | 1.83% |
| 2003 | 2003-09-30 | $20.84 | 20.65% | $35.47 | 70.18% |
| 2002 | 2002-09-30 | $13.81 | 19.29% | $18.84 | 36.41% |
| 2001 | 2001-09-30 | $22.40 | 19.94% | $14.06 | -37.23% |
| 2000 | 2000-09-30 | $35.63 | 17.66% | $14.74 | -58.62% |
| 1999 | 1999-09-30 | $23.65 | 9.50% | $0.50 | -97.91% |
| 1998 | 1998-09-30 | $3.00 | -6.87% | $-3.43 | -214.26% |
| 1997 | 1997-09-30 | $3.92 | -14.80% | $-1.14 | -129.03% |
| 1996 | 1996-09-30 | $2.61 | -3.46% | $-3.50 | -234.03% |
| $114.00 - $125.94 | 13 |
| $125.94 - $137.88 | 60 |
| $137.88 - $149.82 | 122 |
| $149.82 - $161.76 | 168 |
| $161.76 - $173.70 | 152 |
| $173.70 - $185.64 | 157 |
| $185.64 - $197.58 | 120 |
| $197.58 - $209.52 | 68 |
| $209.52 - $221.46 | 43 |
| $221.46 - $233.40 | 33 |
| $233.40 - $245.34 | 25 |
| $245.34 - $257.28 | 7 |
| $257.28 - $269.22 | 12 |
| $269.22 - $281.16 | 11 |
| $281.16 - $293.10 | 4 |
| $293.10 - $305.04 | 0 |
| $305.04 - $316.99 | 0 |
| $316.99 - $328.93 | 2 |
| $328.93 - $340.87 | 2 |
| $340.87 - $352.81 | 1 |