Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $51.60 |
| 5Y Range | 51.12 – 75.01 |
| 5Y Selected | 63.06 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.60% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $9.08 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.40% |
| 10Y Range | 50.53 – 71.28 |
| 10Y Selected | 60.90 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.60% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $8.77 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.00% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.1336 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.2744 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1708 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2623 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0000 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0905 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0383 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0000 |
| Safety Score | 0.1440 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -8.82% | -7.40% | -5.97% | -4.55% | -3.12% | -1.70% | -0.27% | 1.15% | 2.58% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,098.56 | 1,017.31 | 956.55 | 913.05 | 884.54 | 869.51 | 867.13 | 877.11 | 899.70 | 935.69 |
| EBITDA | 997.75 | 923.95 | 868.77 | 829.26 | 803.37 | 789.72 | 787.56 | 796.62 | 817.14 | 849.82 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 997.75 | 923.95 | 868.77 | 829.26 | 803.37 | 789.72 | 787.56 | 796.62 | 817.14 | 849.82 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -32.62 | -30.21 | -28.40 | -27.11 | -26.26 | -25.82 | -25.75 | -26.04 | -26.71 | -27.78 |
| NOPAT | 965.13 | 893.75 | 840.37 | 802.15 | 777.10 | 763.90 | 761.81 | 770.58 | 790.42 | 822.04 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | 3.70 | 2.83 | 2.11 | 1.51 | 0.99 | 0.52 | 0.08 | -0.35 | -0.79 | -1.25 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 968.83 | 896.57 | 842.48 | 803.67 | 778.09 | 764.43 | 761.89 | 770.23 | 789.64 | 820.79 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 186,451,347.50 | 186,451,347.50 | 186,451,347.50 | 186,451,347.50 | 186,451,347.50 | 186,451,347.50 | 186,451,347.50 | 186,451,347.50 | 186,451,347.50 | 186,451,347.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 12/31/24 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 7/1/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 960.43 | 861.37 | 741.91 | 648.70 | 575.69 | 518.41 | 473.60 | 438.86 | 412.40 | 392.92 | Raw: 11,417.13 8,087.28 |
Raw: 12,043.59 5,519.73 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,875.38 | 11,544.01 |
| (-) Net Debt | 595.24 | 595.24 |
| Equity Value | 11,280.14 | 10,948.77 |
| (/) Shares Out | 186.45 | 186.45 |
| Fair Value | $60.50 | $58.72 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.60% | 85.60% |
| Buy Price | $8.71 | $8.46 |
| Current Price | $51.60 | $51.60 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.12% | -83.61% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 959.56 | 857.76 | 732.09 | 634.31 | 557.80 | 497.74 | 450.59 | 413.74 | 385.26 | 363.73 | Raw: 9,347.02 6,385.97 |
Raw: 9,859.90 4,164.17 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 10,127.48 | 10,016.73 |
| (-) Net Debt | 595.24 | 595.24 |
| Equity Value | 9,532.24 | 9,421.49 |
| (/) Shares Out | 186.45 | 186.45 |
| Fair Value | $51.12 | $50.53 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.60% | 85.60% |
| Buy Price | $7.36 | $7.28 |
| Current Price | $51.60 | $51.60 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -85.73% | -85.90% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 961.32 | 865.03 | 751.95 | 663.57 | 594.32 | 540.14 | 498.02 | 465.76 | 441.72 | 424.75 | Raw: 14,624.48 10,743.92 |
Raw: 15,426.93 7,678.45 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 14,580.10 | 13,885.03 |
| (-) Net Debt | 595.24 | 595.24 |
| Equity Value | 13,984.86 | 13,289.79 |
| (/) Shares Out | 186.45 | 186.45 |
| Fair Value | $75.01 | $71.28 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.60% | 85.60% |
| Buy Price | $10.80 | $10.26 |
| Current Price | $51.60 | $51.60 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -79.07% | -80.11% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 6,564.10 | 15,523.64 | 36,712.31 | 86,822.02 | 205,327.93 | 485,586.01 | 1,148,376.53 | 2,715,829.20 | 6,422,743.77 | 15,189,334.27 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 136.49% | 136.49% | 136.49% | 136.49% | 136.49% | 136.49% | 136.49% | 136.49% | 136.49% | 136.49% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.66 | 1.55 | 3.67 | 8.68 | 20.53 | 48.56 | 114.84 | 271.58 | 642.27 | 1,518.93 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.63 | 1.25 | 2.72 | 5.89 | 12.76 | 27.67 | 59.98 | 130.01 | 281.82 | 610.91 |
| $42.37 - $45.15 | 12 |
| $45.15 - $47.92 | 35 |
| $47.92 - $50.70 | 66 |
| $50.70 - $53.47 | 132 |
| $53.47 - $56.24 | 152 |
| $56.24 - $59.02 | 150 |
| $59.02 - $61.79 | 107 |
| $61.79 - $64.56 | 82 |
| $64.56 - $67.34 | 74 |
| $67.34 - $70.11 | 61 |
| $70.11 - $72.89 | 41 |
| $72.89 - $75.66 | 31 |
| $75.66 - $78.43 | 20 |
| $78.43 - $81.21 | 11 |
| $81.21 - $83.98 | 12 |
| $83.98 - $86.76 | 4 |
| $86.76 - $89.53 | 3 |
| $89.53 - $92.30 | 0 |
| $92.30 - $95.08 | 2 |
| $95.08 - $97.85 | 5 |