Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $43.41 |
| 5Y Range | 101.99 – 166.04 |
| 5Y Selected | 134.02 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 53.06% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $62.91 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 44.91% |
| 10Y Range | 116.80 – 183.43 |
| 10Y Selected | 150.11 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 53.06% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $70.46 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 62.32% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9958 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8424 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2125 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5898 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0043 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6205 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6826 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.9205 |
| Safety Score | 0.4694 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 12.75% | 11.77% | 10.80% | 9.83% | 8.86% | 7.89% | 6.92% | 5.94% | 4.97% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 849.44 | 949.46 | 1,052.02 | 1,155.44 | 1,257.80 | 1,357.01 | 1,450.85 | 1,537.08 | 1,613.50 | 1,678.04 |
| EBITDA | 373.78 | 417.79 | 462.92 | 508.43 | 553.47 | 597.13 | 638.42 | 676.37 | 709.99 | 738.39 |
| D&A | -102.33 | -114.38 | -126.73 | -139.19 | -151.52 | -163.48 | -174.78 | -185.17 | -194.38 | -202.15 |
| EBIT | 271.45 | 303.41 | 336.19 | 369.24 | 401.95 | 433.65 | 463.64 | 491.20 | 515.62 | 536.24 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -76.64 | -85.66 | -94.92 | -104.25 | -113.48 | -122.44 | -130.90 | -138.68 | -145.58 | -151.40 |
| NOPAT | 194.81 | 217.75 | 241.27 | 264.99 | 288.46 | 311.22 | 332.74 | 352.51 | 370.04 | 384.84 |
| Capital Expenditures | -9.71 | -10.85 | -12.02 | -13.20 | -14.37 | -15.51 | -16.58 | -17.56 | -18.44 | -19.17 |
| NWC Investment | 30.31 | 31.57 | 32.38 | 32.65 | 32.31 | 31.32 | 29.62 | 27.22 | 24.12 | 20.37 |
| (+) D&A | 102.33 | 114.38 | 126.73 | 139.19 | 151.52 | 163.48 | 174.78 | 185.17 | 194.38 | 202.15 |
| Free Cash Flow | 317.75 | 352.85 | 388.36 | 423.63 | 457.93 | 490.50 | 520.56 | 547.34 | 570.10 | 588.19 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 44,492,000.00 | 44,492,000.00 | 44,492,000.00 | 44,492,000.00 | 44,492,000.00 | 44,492,000.00 | 44,492,000.00 | 44,492,000.00 | 44,492,000.00 | 44,492,000.00 |
| Metric | Nov-25 | Nov-26 | Nov-27 | Nov-28 | Nov-29 | Nov-30 | Nov-31 | Nov-32 | Nov-33 | Nov-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 8/31/25 | 12/1/25 | 12/1/26 | 12/1/27 | 12/1/28 | 12/1/29 | 12/1/30 | 12/1/31 | 12/1/32 | 12/1/33 |
| Period End | 11/30/25 | 11/30/26 | 11/30/27 | 11/30/28 | 11/30/29 | 11/30/30 | 11/30/31 | 11/30/32 | 11/30/33 | 11/30/34 |
| Mid-Point | 10/15/25 | 6/1/26 | 6/1/27 | 5/31/28 | 6/1/29 | 6/1/30 | 6/1/31 | 5/31/32 | 6/1/33 | 6/1/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.37 | 1.37 | 2.37 | 3.37 | 4.37 | 5.37 | 6.37 | 7.38 | 8.38 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 314.99 | 341.66 | 344.69 | 344.63 | 341.47 | 335.26 | 326.14 | 314.32 | 299.82 | 283.54 | Raw: 7,024.58 5,014.98 |
Raw: 9,022.80 4,164.17 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,702.44 | 7,410.70 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,059.73 | 1,059.73 |
| Equity Value | 5,642.71 | 6,350.97 |
| (/) Shares Out | 44.49 | 44.49 |
| Fair Value | $126.83 | $142.74 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 53.06% | 53.06% |
| Buy Price | $59.53 | $67.00 |
| Current Price | $43.41 | $43.41 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 37.14% | 54.35% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.88 | 0.80 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.45 | ||
| PV UFCF | 314.71 | 340.51 | 340.41 | 337.26 | 331.13 | 322.16 | 310.54 | 296.57 | 280.30 | 262.67 | Raw: 5,707.95 3,933.63 |
Raw: 7,331.64 3,120.32 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,597.65 | 6,256.58 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,059.73 | 1,059.73 |
| Equity Value | 4,537.92 | 5,196.85 |
| (/) Shares Out | 44.49 | 44.49 |
| Fair Value | $101.99 | $116.80 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 53.06% | 53.06% |
| Buy Price | $47.88 | $54.83 |
| Current Price | $43.41 | $43.41 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 10.29% | 26.30% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 315.28 | 342.83 | 349.06 | 352.24 | 352.24 | 349.03 | 342.67 | 333.30 | 320.91 | 306.29 | Raw: 9,104.21 6,735.47 |
Raw: 11,694.01 5,856.83 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,447.12 | 9,220.67 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,059.73 | 1,059.73 |
| Equity Value | 7,387.40 | 8,160.95 |
| (/) Shares Out | 44.49 | 44.49 |
| Fair Value | $166.04 | $183.43 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 53.06% | 53.06% |
| Buy Price | $77.94 | $86.10 |
| Current Price | $43.41 | $43.41 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 79.54% | 98.34% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,188.39 | 5,094.04 | 11,857.69 | 27,601.84 | 64,250.42 | 149,559.47 | 348,138.37 | 810,382.15 | 1,886,374.16 | 4,391,024.04 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 132.78% | 132.78% | 132.78% | 132.78% | 132.78% | 132.78% | 132.78% | 132.78% | 132.78% | 132.78% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.22 | 0.51 | 1.19 | 2.76 | 6.43 | 14.96 | 34.81 | 81.04 | 188.64 | 439.10 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.21 | 0.41 | 0.88 | 1.89 | 4.03 | 8.59 | 18.31 | 39.06 | 83.35 | 177.84 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-11-30 | $42.01 | 14.18% | $73.04 | 73.86% |
| 2018 | 2018-11-30 | $35.16 | 14.39% | $68.99 | 96.22% |
| 2017 | 2017-11-30 | $41.34 | 11.96% | $53.50 | 29.42% |
| 2016 | 2016-11-30 | $29.57 | 8.85% | $44.82 | 51.58% |
| 2015 | 2015-11-30 | $23.99 | 4.73% | $36.48 | 52.05% |
| 2014 | 2014-11-30 | $26.06 | 4.75% | $40.10 | 53.89% |
| 2013 | 2013-11-30 | $26.34 | 6.72% | $3.47 | -86.83% |
| 2012 | 2012-11-30 | $20.11 | 8.26% | $38.59 | 91.90% |
| 2011 | 2011-11-30 | $20.37 | 10.67% | $41.95 | 105.95% |
| 2010 | 2010-11-30 | $25.68 | 0.43% | $25.22 | -1.77% |
| 2009 | 2009-11-30 | $16.05 | -7.52% | $12.75 | -20.59% |
| 2008 | 2008-11-30 | $12.69 | -10.26% | $13.59 | 7.12% |
| 2007 | 2007-11-30 | $21.09 | -9.15% | $14.13 | -33.00% |
| 2006 | 2006-11-30 | $18.07 | 0.38% | $12.22 | -32.36% |
| 2005 | 2005-11-30 | $20.63 | 2.94% | $21.78 | 5.60% |
| 2004 | 2004-11-30 | $15.13 | 4.41% | $21.47 | 41.91% |
| 2003 | 2003-11-30 | $14.94 | 7.23% | $20.84 | 39.51% |
| 2002 | 2002-11-30 | $9.05 | 9.28% | $18.10 | 99.95% |
| 2001 | 2001-11-30 | $11.40 | 9.63% | $11.88 | 4.19% |
| 2000 | 2000-11-30 | $8.63 | 9.05% | $8.21 | -4.84% |
| 1999 | 1999-11-30 | $13.29 | 4.93% | $20.27 | 52.50% |
| 1998 | 1998-11-30 | $8.46 | -0.29% | $13.47 | 59.23% |
| 1997 | 1997-11-30 | $4.58 | 0.89% | $7.53 | 64.42% |
| 1996 | 1996-11-30 | $4.47 | 7.95% | $5.28 | 18.05% |
| 1995 | 1995-11-30 | $7.06 | 15.40% | $8.74 | 23.86% |
| $91.59 - $103.08 | 16 |
| $103.08 - $114.58 | 84 |
| $114.58 - $126.07 | 142 |
| $126.07 - $137.56 | 179 |
| $137.56 - $149.06 | 171 |
| $149.06 - $160.55 | 145 |
| $160.55 - $172.05 | 94 |
| $172.05 - $183.54 | 58 |
| $183.54 - $195.03 | 37 |
| $195.03 - $206.53 | 26 |
| $206.53 - $218.02 | 18 |
| $218.02 - $229.51 | 10 |
| $229.51 - $241.01 | 11 |
| $241.01 - $252.50 | 4 |
| $252.50 - $263.99 | 4 |
| $263.99 - $275.49 | 0 |
| $275.49 - $286.98 | 0 |
| $286.98 - $298.48 | 0 |
| $298.48 - $309.97 | 0 |
| $309.97 - $321.46 | 1 |