Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $30.44 |
| 5Y Range | 583.89 – 875.40 |
| 5Y Selected | 729.64 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.41% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $106.46 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 249.72% |
| 10Y Range | 673.63 – 990.77 |
| 10Y Selected | 832.20 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.41% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $121.42 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 298.88% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.2038 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.4385 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.3102 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0044 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6970 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.2846 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8587 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0095 |
| Safety Score | 0.1459 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 11.04% | 10.25% | 9.47% | 8.69% | 7.91% | 7.13% | 6.35% | 5.56% | 4.78% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,735.38 | 3,015.88 | 3,301.57 | 3,588.51 | 3,872.33 | 4,148.33 | 4,411.56 | 4,657.00 | 4,879.70 | 5,074.88 |
| EBITDA | 1,898.49 | 2,093.18 | 2,291.46 | 2,490.61 | 2,687.60 | 2,879.15 | 3,061.85 | 3,232.20 | 3,386.76 | 3,522.23 |
| D&A | -226.88 | -250.15 | -273.84 | -297.64 | -321.19 | -344.08 | -365.91 | -386.27 | -404.74 | -420.93 |
| EBIT | 1,671.61 | 1,843.03 | 2,017.61 | 2,192.96 | 2,366.41 | 2,535.07 | 2,695.93 | 2,845.93 | 2,982.02 | 3,101.30 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -331.02 | -364.96 | -399.53 | -434.26 | -468.60 | -502.00 | -533.86 | -563.56 | -590.51 | -614.13 |
| NOPAT | 1,340.59 | 1,478.07 | 1,618.08 | 1,758.71 | 1,897.81 | 2,033.07 | 2,162.08 | 2,282.37 | 2,391.51 | 2,487.17 |
| Capital Expenditures | -43.28 | -47.72 | -52.24 | -56.78 | -61.27 | -65.64 | -69.80 | -73.69 | -77.21 | -80.30 |
| NWC Investment | -78.56 | -81.06 | -82.55 | -82.92 | -82.01 | -79.75 | -76.06 | -70.92 | -64.35 | -56.40 |
| (+) D&A | 226.88 | 250.15 | 273.84 | 297.64 | 321.19 | 344.08 | 365.91 | 386.27 | 404.74 | 420.93 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,445.63 | 1,599.44 | 1,757.13 | 1,916.66 | 2,075.71 | 2,231.76 | 2,382.12 | 2,524.03 | 2,654.69 | 2,771.40 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 41,610,000.00 | 41,610,000.00 | 41,610,000.00 | 41,610,000.00 | 41,610,000.00 | 41,610,000.00 | 41,610,000.00 | 41,610,000.00 | 41,610,000.00 | 41,610,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,433.10 | 1,536.64 | 1,547.36 | 1,547.09 | 1,535.75 | 1,513.51 | 1,480.76 | 1,438.13 | 1,386.44 | 1,326.69 | Raw: 30,845.33 21,849.17 |
Raw: 41,183.39 18,874.86 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 29,449.11 | 33,620.31 |
| (-) Net Debt | 410.40 | 410.40 |
| Equity Value | 29,038.71 | 33,209.92 |
| (/) Shares Out | 41.61 | 41.61 |
| Fair Value | $697.88 | $798.12 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.41% | 85.41% |
| Buy Price | $101.82 | $116.45 |
| Current Price | $30.44 | $30.44 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 234.50% | 282.54% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,431.79 | 1,530.20 | 1,526.89 | 1,512.75 | 1,488.02 | 1,453.15 | 1,408.80 | 1,355.81 | 1,295.21 | 1,228.13 | Raw: 25,199.40 17,216.45 |
Raw: 33,645.18 14,209.51 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 24,706.10 | 28,440.26 |
| (-) Net Debt | 410.40 | 410.40 |
| Equity Value | 24,295.71 | 28,029.86 |
| (/) Shares Out | 41.61 | 41.61 |
| Fair Value | $583.89 | $673.63 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.41% | 85.41% |
| Buy Price | $85.19 | $98.28 |
| Current Price | $30.44 | $30.44 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 179.86% | 222.87% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,434.42 | 1,543.16 | 1,568.31 | 1,582.53 | 1,585.47 | 1,576.96 | 1,557.11 | 1,526.27 | 1,485.03 | 1,434.17 | Raw: 39,640.29 29,121.84 |
Raw: 52,926.04 26,342.88 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 36,835.73 | 41,636.30 |
| (-) Net Debt | 410.40 | 410.40 |
| Equity Value | 36,425.33 | 41,225.91 |
| (/) Shares Out | 41.61 | 41.61 |
| Fair Value | $875.40 | $990.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.41% | 85.41% |
| Buy Price | $127.72 | $144.55 |
| Current Price | $30.44 | $30.44 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 319.58% | 374.88% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 4,987.73 | 9,922.49 | 19,739.61 | 39,269.58 | 78,122.11 | 155,414.55 | 309,178.58 | 615,073.64 | 1,223,615.13 | 2,434,235.33 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 98.94% | 98.94% | 98.94% | 98.94% | 98.94% | 98.94% | 98.94% | 98.94% | 98.94% | 98.94% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.50 | 0.99 | 1.97 | 3.93 | 7.81 | 15.54 | 30.92 | 61.51 | 122.36 | 243.42 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.46 | 0.80 | 1.46 | 2.66 | 4.86 | 8.86 | 16.15 | 29.44 | 53.69 | 97.90 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $57.11 | 11.52% | $72.24 | 26.49% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $42.05 | 12.78% | $98.12 | 133.35% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $39.85 | 0.30% | $17.06 | -57.19% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $31.99 | -7.32% | $58.19 | 81.89% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $22.39 | -7.61% | $7.36 | -67.12% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $30.57 | -3.98% | $-25.03 | -181.89% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $29.40 | 8.58% | $73.15 | 148.81% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $28.28 | 11.27% | $-1.87 | -106.60% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $26.68 | 12.23% | $74.76 | 180.21% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $20.39 | 13.17% | $-12.07 | -159.18% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $22.50 | 11.14% | $33.82 | 50.32% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $21.95 | 8.61% | $-1.12 | -105.10% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $17.26 | 9.50% | $-11.24 | -165.11% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $26.38 | 8.19% | $-7.13 | -127.04% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $10.96 | 7.90% | $-21.98 | -300.52% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $12.61 | 8.87% | $-2.37 | -118.82% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $18.49 | 10.94% | $8.46 | -54.27% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $5.76 | 14.15% | $-68.07 | -1,281.85% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $3.39 | 16.03% | $-37.76 | -1,213.96% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $3.38 | 15.67% | $-61.13 | -1,908.67% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $18.25 | 13.05% | $-39.74 | -317.77% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $14.94 | 11.46% | $-28.03 | -287.63% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $17.50 | 12.63% | $-23.14 | -232.23% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $14.00 | 14.19% | $-28.68 | -304.89% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $9.07 | 14.43% | $-18.99 | -309.40% |
| $536.83 - $595.71 | 13 |
| $595.71 - $654.59 | 69 |
| $654.59 - $713.47 | 130 |
| $713.47 - $772.35 | 227 |
| $772.35 - $831.23 | 206 |
| $831.23 - $890.11 | 141 |
| $890.11 - $948.99 | 85 |
| $948.99 - $1,007.86 | 50 |
| $1,007.86 - $1,066.74 | 32 |
| $1,066.74 - $1,125.62 | 18 |
| $1,125.62 - $1,184.50 | 10 |
| $1,184.50 - $1,243.38 | 12 |
| $1,243.38 - $1,302.26 | 1 |
| $1,302.26 - $1,361.14 | 0 |
| $1,361.14 - $1,420.02 | 1 |
| $1,420.02 - $1,478.89 | 2 |
| $1,478.89 - $1,537.77 | 0 |
| $1,537.77 - $1,596.65 | 2 |
| $1,596.65 - $1,655.53 | 0 |
| $1,655.53 - $1,714.41 | 1 |