Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $2,390.00 |
| 5Y Range | 8,840.78 – 16,992.44 |
| 5Y Selected | 12,916.61 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 72.95% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $3,716.11 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 55.49% |
| 10Y Range | 9,382.13 – 17,438.22 |
| 10Y Selected | 13,410.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 72.95% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $3,858.11 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 61.43% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0349 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7828 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1356 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4064 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1136 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.5137 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2468 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.4712 |
| Safety Score | 0.2877 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.21% | 4.19% | 4.16% | 4.14% | 4.12% | 4.09% | 4.07% | 4.05% | 4.02% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,347,001.57 | 2,445,253.63 | 2,547,049.42 | 2,652,489.88 | 2,761,677.64 | 2,874,716.97 | 2,991,713.79 | 3,112,775.58 | 3,238,011.41 | 3,367,531.87 |
| EBITDA | 812,229.84 | 846,232.05 | 881,460.65 | 917,950.57 | 955,737.32 | 994,856.98 | 1,035,346.22 | 1,077,242.23 | 1,120,582.75 | 1,165,406.07 |
| D&A | -140,356.57 | -146,232.28 | -152,319.93 | -158,625.53 | -165,155.23 | -171,915.27 | -178,911.97 | -186,151.77 | -193,641.18 | -201,386.83 |
| EBIT | 671,873.27 | 699,999.77 | 729,140.73 | 759,325.04 | 790,582.08 | 822,941.72 | 856,434.25 | 891,090.46 | 926,941.57 | 964,019.23 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -145,351.85 | -151,436.69 | -157,740.99 | -164,271.01 | -171,033.10 | -178,033.73 | -185,279.44 | -192,776.91 | -200,532.87 | -208,554.19 |
| NOPAT | 526,521.42 | 548,563.08 | 571,399.73 | 595,054.03 | 619,548.98 | 644,907.99 | 671,154.81 | 698,313.56 | 726,408.70 | 755,465.05 |
| Capital Expenditures | -245,541.30 | -255,820.35 | -266,470.14 | -277,501.23 | -288,924.36 | -300,750.44 | -312,990.55 | -325,655.93 | -338,757.99 | -352,308.31 |
| NWC Investment | -3,371.52 | -3,494.01 | -3,620.03 | -3,749.64 | -3,882.90 | -4,019.87 | -4,160.60 | -4,305.16 | -4,453.59 | -4,605.96 |
| (+) D&A | 140,356.57 | 146,232.28 | 152,319.93 | 158,625.53 | 165,155.23 | 171,915.27 | 178,911.97 | 186,151.77 | 193,641.18 | 201,386.83 |
| Free Cash Flow | 417,965.17 | 435,481.01 | 453,629.49 | 472,428.69 | 491,896.95 | 512,052.95 | 532,915.63 | 554,504.24 | 576,838.30 | 599,937.60 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 927,644,500.00 | 927,644,500.00 | 927,644,500.00 | 927,644,500.00 | 927,644,500.00 | 927,644,500.00 | 927,644,500.00 | 927,644,500.00 | 927,644,500.00 | 927,644,500.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 414,993.99 | 421,421.91 | 408,758.08 | 396,386.17 | 384,302.78 | 372,504.43 | 360,987.52 | 349,748.43 | 338,783.43 | 328,088.74 | Raw: 11,499,425.90 8,669,302.21 |
Raw: 14,025,169.25 7,401,196.46 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 10,695,165.15 | 11,177,171.93 |
| (-) Net Debt | -29.33 | -29.33 |
| Equity Value | 10,695,194.48 | 11,177,201.26 |
| (/) Shares Out | 927.64 | 927.64 |
| Fair Value | $11,529.41 | $12,049.01 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 72.95% | 72.95% |
| Buy Price | $3,118.71 | $3,259.26 |
| Current Price | $2,390.00 | $2,390.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 30.49% | 36.37% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 414,609.53 | 419,629.03 | 403,264.10 | 387,450.75 | 372,174.27 | 357,420.17 | 343,174.18 | 329,422.29 | 316,150.72 | 303,345.91 | Raw: 8,536,891.36 6,203,945.18 |
Raw: 10,411,941.19 5,056,613.36 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,201,072.86 | 8,703,254.30 |
| (-) Net Debt | -29.33 | -29.33 |
| Equity Value | 8,201,102.19 | 8,703,283.63 |
| (/) Shares Out | 927.64 | 927.64 |
| Fair Value | $8,840.78 | $9,382.13 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 72.95% | 72.95% |
| Buy Price | $2,391.43 | $2,537.87 |
| Current Price | $2,390.00 | $2,390.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 0.06% | 6.19% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 415,382.40 | 423,239.34 | 414,379.36 | 405,614.17 | 396,945.62 | 388,375.45 | 379,905.32 | 371,536.78 | 363,271.27 | 355,110.14 | Raw: 17,520,907.01 13,707,349.12 |
Raw: 21,369,213.41 12,262,684.05 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 15,762,910.00 | 16,176,443.90 |
| (-) Net Debt | -29.33 | -29.33 |
| Equity Value | 15,762,939.33 | 16,176,473.23 |
| (/) Shares Out | 927.64 | 927.64 |
| Fair Value | $16,992.44 | $17,438.22 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 72.95% | 72.95% |
| Buy Price | $4,596.45 | $4,717.04 |
| Current Price | $2,390.00 | $2,390.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 92.32% | 97.37% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 4,427,708.56 | 8,774,343.36 | 17,388,023.69 | 34,457,663.16 | 68,284,387.67 | 135,318,450.85 | 268,159,146.87 | 531,408,153.11 | 1,053,085,932.32 | 2,086,889,285.31 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% | 98.17% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 442.77 | 877.43 | 1,738.80 | 3,445.77 | 6,828.44 | 13,531.85 | 26,815.91 | 53,140.82 | 105,308.59 | 208,688.93 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.47 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 417.31 | 736.20 | 1,358.47 | 2,506.70 | 4,625.46 | 8,535.09 | 15,749.28 | 29,061.19 | 53,624.87 | 98,950.73 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $3,620.00 | 1.92% | $4,599.88 | 27.07% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $2,280.00 | 6.37% | $1,081.82 | -52.55% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $3,700.00 | 10.40% | $-2,139.95 | -157.84% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $5,800.00 | 13.44% | $2,878.98 | -50.36% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $6,600.00 | 3.99% | $-3,207.63 | -148.60% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $6,600.00 | 7.06% | $-640.07 | -109.70% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $6,600.00 | 9.49% | $224.97 | -96.59% |
| $7,068.77 - $10,112.71 | 191 |
| $10,112.71 - $13,156.64 | 421 |
| $13,156.64 - $16,200.58 | 236 |
| $16,200.58 - $19,244.52 | 90 |
| $19,244.52 - $22,288.45 | 26 |
| $22,288.45 - $25,332.39 | 15 |
| $25,332.39 - $28,376.32 | 4 |
| $28,376.32 - $31,420.26 | 7 |
| $31,420.26 - $34,464.19 | 2 |
| $34,464.19 - $37,508.13 | 1 |
| $37,508.13 - $40,552.06 | 2 |
| $40,552.06 - $43,596.00 | 0 |
| $43,596.00 - $46,639.94 | 0 |
| $46,639.94 - $49,683.87 | 2 |
| $49,683.87 - $52,727.81 | 0 |
| $52,727.81 - $55,771.74 | 1 |
| $55,771.74 - $58,815.68 | 0 |
| $58,815.68 - $61,859.61 | 0 |
| $61,859.61 - $64,903.55 | 0 |
| $64,903.55 - $67,947.48 | 2 |