Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $332.65 |
| 5Y Range | 324.13 – 479.96 |
| 5Y Selected | 402.05 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.93% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $100.79 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.70% |
| 10Y Range | 379.65 – 556.36 |
| 10Y Selected | 468.00 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.93% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $117.33 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -64.73% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9501 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6232 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9343 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.6245 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9239 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.5745 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6544 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2414 |
| Safety Score | 0.2507 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 16.94% | 15.51% | 14.07% | 12.63% | 11.19% | 9.75% | 8.31% | 6.88% | 5.44% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,291.44 | 1,491.70 | 1,701.56 | 1,916.47 | 2,130.95 | 2,338.79 | 2,533.26 | 2,707.47 | 2,854.71 | 2,968.90 |
| EBITDA | 260.04 | 300.36 | 342.62 | 385.89 | 429.07 | 470.92 | 510.08 | 545.16 | 574.80 | 597.80 |
| D&A | -21.44 | -24.76 | -28.25 | -31.81 | -35.37 | -38.82 | -42.05 | -44.94 | -47.39 | -49.28 |
| EBIT | 238.60 | 275.60 | 314.37 | 354.07 | 393.70 | 432.10 | 468.03 | 500.21 | 527.42 | 548.51 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -49.23 | -56.86 | -64.86 | -73.05 | -81.23 | -89.15 | -96.56 | -103.20 | -108.81 | -113.17 |
| NOPAT | 189.37 | 218.74 | 249.51 | 281.02 | 312.48 | 342.95 | 371.47 | 397.01 | 418.60 | 435.35 |
| Capital Expenditures | -12.13 | -14.02 | -15.99 | -18.01 | -20.02 | -21.97 | -23.80 | -25.44 | -26.82 | -27.89 |
| NWC Investment | -0.78 | -0.83 | -0.87 | -0.89 | -0.89 | -0.86 | -0.81 | -0.72 | -0.61 | -0.47 |
| (+) D&A | 21.44 | 24.76 | 28.25 | 31.81 | 35.37 | 38.82 | 42.05 | 44.94 | 47.39 | 49.28 |
| Free Cash Flow | 197.90 | 228.65 | 260.90 | 293.94 | 326.94 | 358.94 | 388.91 | 415.80 | 438.56 | 456.26 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 12,174,500.00 | 12,174,500.00 | 12,174,500.00 | 12,174,500.00 | 12,174,500.00 | 12,174,500.00 | 12,174,500.00 | 12,174,500.00 | 12,174,500.00 | 12,174,500.00 |
| Metric | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | Sep-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 10/1/26 | 10/1/27 | 10/1/28 | 10/1/29 | 10/1/30 | 10/1/31 | 10/1/32 | 10/1/33 | 10/1/34 |
| Period End | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 | 9/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 2/13/26 | 4/1/27 | 3/31/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 3/31/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 | 4/1/35 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 1.21 | 2.21 | 3.21 | 4.21 | 5.21 | 6.21 | 7.21 | 8.21 | 9.21 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.90 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | ||
| PV UFCF | 196.18 | 205.79 | 215.23 | 222.26 | 226.60 | 228.03 | 226.47 | 221.93 | 214.56 | 204.61 | Raw: 4,928.90 3,270.64 |
Raw: 6,878.62 2,953.25 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,336.70 | 5,114.91 |
| (-) Net Debt | -348.43 | -348.43 |
| Equity Value | 4,685.13 | 5,463.34 |
| (/) Shares Out | 12.17 | 12.17 |
| Fair Value | $384.83 | $448.75 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.93% | 74.93% |
| Buy Price | $96.48 | $112.50 |
| Current Price | $332.65 | $332.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -71.00% | -66.18% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.41 | ||
| PV UFCF | 196.01 | 203.53 | 210.93 | 215.85 | 218.06 | 217.45 | 213.99 | 207.80 | 199.08 | 188.12 | Raw: 4,016.95 2,553.38 |
Raw: 5,605.92 2,202.77 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,597.75 | 4,273.57 |
| (-) Net Debt | -348.43 | -348.43 |
| Equity Value | 3,946.18 | 4,622.00 |
| (/) Shares Out | 12.17 | 12.17 |
| Fair Value | $324.13 | $379.65 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.93% | 74.93% |
| Buy Price | $81.26 | $95.18 |
| Current Price | $332.65 | $332.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -75.57% | -71.39% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 196.37 | 208.09 | 219.65 | 228.93 | 235.56 | 239.24 | 239.80 | 237.17 | 231.41 | 222.72 | Raw: 6,358.39 4,406.22 |
Raw: 8,873.56 4,166.09 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,494.81 | 6,425.02 |
| (-) Net Debt | -348.43 | -348.43 |
| Equity Value | 5,843.24 | 6,773.45 |
| (/) Shares Out | 12.17 | 12.17 |
| Fair Value | $479.96 | $556.36 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.93% | 74.93% |
| Buy Price | $120.33 | $139.48 |
| Current Price | $332.65 | $332.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -63.83% | -58.07% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,533.87 | 5,937.20 | 13,911.70 | 32,597.05 | 76,379.43 | 178,967.68 | 419,346.26 | 982,586.84 | 2,302,338.19 | 5,394,699.90 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 134.31% | 134.31% | 134.31% | 134.31% | 134.31% | 134.31% | 134.31% | 134.31% | 134.31% | 134.31% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.25 | 0.59 | 1.39 | 3.26 | 7.64 | 17.90 | 41.93 | 98.26 | 230.23 | 539.47 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.24 | 0.49 | 1.05 | 2.26 | 4.85 | 10.42 | 22.38 | 48.07 | 103.25 | 221.75 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-09-30 | $24.13 | 22.73% | $234.86 | 873.31% |
| 2019 | 2019-09-30 | $39.15 | 16.59% | $178.40 | 355.69% |
| 2018 | 2018-09-30 | $34.89 | 5.63% | $-52.17 | -249.53% |
| 2017 | 2017-09-30 | $29.99 | 1.87% | $53.24 | 77.53% |
| 2016 | 2016-09-30 | $40.05 | 4.32% | $122.95 | 206.98% |
| 2015 | 2015-09-30 | $30.10 | 0.43% | $-24.74 | -182.19% |
| 2014 | 2014-09-30 | $40.86 | -6.83% | $1.55 | -96.20% |
| 2013 | 2013-09-30 | $61.29 | -11.26% | $21.72 | -64.56% |
| 2012 | 2012-09-30 | $38.73 | -9.59% | $-21.42 | -155.31% |
| 2011 | 2011-09-30 | $30.97 | -3.60% | $18.94 | -38.86% |
| 2010 | 2010-09-30 | $31.12 | 1.88% | $93.96 | 201.94% |
| 2009 | 2009-09-30 | $38.39 | 3.60% | $191.06 | 397.67% |
| 2008 | 2008-09-30 | $40.81 | 0.72% | $-14.69 | -135.99% |
| 2007 | 2007-09-30 | $39.57 | -0.65% | $-5.65 | -114.28% |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | $22.13 | -3.01% | $-18.98 | -185.78% |
| 2000 | 2000-10-31 | $10.94 | -5.86% | $-2.93 | -126.83% |
| 1999 | 1999-10-31 | $7.75 | -2.90% | $16.58 | 113.90% |
| 1998 | 1998-10-31 | $9.25 | 6.76% | $-17.65 | -290.85% |
| 1997 | 1997-10-31 | $14.75 | 10.22% | $-20.28 | -237.48% |
| 1996 | 1996-10-31 | $10.50 | 8.33% | $17.26 | 64.41% |
| $314.60 - $345.84 | 17 |
| $345.84 - $377.07 | 81 |
| $377.07 - $408.30 | 170 |
| $408.30 - $439.53 | 165 |
| $439.53 - $470.76 | 179 |
| $470.76 - $501.99 | 123 |
| $501.99 - $533.22 | 95 |
| $533.22 - $564.46 | 59 |
| $564.46 - $595.69 | 40 |
| $595.69 - $626.92 | 26 |
| $626.92 - $658.15 | 18 |
| $658.15 - $689.38 | 6 |
| $689.38 - $720.61 | 7 |
| $720.61 - $751.85 | 6 |
| $751.85 - $783.08 | 2 |
| $783.08 - $814.31 | 1 |
| $814.31 - $845.54 | 2 |
| $845.54 - $876.77 | 1 |
| $876.77 - $908.00 | 1 |
| $908.00 - $939.23 | 1 |