Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $92.51 |
| 5Y Range | 240.49 – 358.25 |
| 5Y Selected | 299.37 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 52.47% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $142.29 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 53.81% |
| 10Y Range | 264.34 – 385.42 |
| 10Y Selected | 324.88 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 52.47% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $154.42 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 66.92% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7421 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9140 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.4720 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8931 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.4498 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8823 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4390 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3015 |
| Safety Score | 0.4753 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 6.82% | 6.51% | 6.20% | 5.88% | 5.57% | 5.26% | 4.94% | 4.63% | 4.31% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,209.98 | 2,353.86 | 2,499.73 | 2,646.79 | 2,794.19 | 2,941.04 | 3,086.37 | 3,229.20 | 3,368.50 | 3,503.24 |
| EBITDA | 607.05 | 646.57 | 686.64 | 727.04 | 767.53 | 807.86 | 847.78 | 887.02 | 925.28 | 962.29 |
| D&A | -26.49 | -28.21 | -29.96 | -31.72 | -33.49 | -35.25 | -36.99 | -38.71 | -40.37 | -41.99 |
| EBIT | 580.56 | 618.36 | 656.68 | 695.31 | 734.03 | 772.61 | 810.79 | 848.31 | 884.90 | 920.30 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -175.40 | -186.82 | -198.39 | -210.06 | -221.76 | -233.42 | -244.95 | -256.29 | -267.34 | -278.04 |
| NOPAT | 405.16 | 431.54 | 458.29 | 485.25 | 512.27 | 539.19 | 565.84 | 592.02 | 617.56 | 642.26 |
| Capital Expenditures | -14.51 | -15.46 | -16.42 | -17.38 | -18.35 | -19.31 | -20.27 | -21.21 | -22.12 | -23.01 |
| NWC Investment | -22.76 | -23.19 | -23.51 | -23.70 | -23.76 | -23.67 | -23.42 | -23.02 | -22.45 | -21.72 |
| (+) D&A | 26.49 | 28.21 | 29.96 | 31.72 | 33.49 | 35.25 | 36.99 | 38.71 | 40.37 | 41.99 |
| Free Cash Flow | 394.38 | 421.11 | 448.32 | 475.89 | 503.66 | 531.46 | 559.14 | 586.50 | 613.36 | 639.53 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 26,506,750.00 | 26,506,750.00 | 26,506,750.00 | 26,506,750.00 | 26,506,750.00 | 26,506,750.00 | 26,506,750.00 | 26,506,750.00 | 26,506,750.00 | 26,506,750.00 |
| Metric | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Period End | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 | 3/31/34 | 3/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/30/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.71 | 2.71 | 3.71 | 4.71 | 5.71 | 6.71 | 7.71 | 8.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 390.97 | 396.21 | 386.30 | 375.86 | 364.61 | 352.66 | 340.08 | 326.98 | 313.44 | 299.56 | Raw: 7,770.37 5,385.59 |
Raw: 9,866.67 4,424.64 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,299.53 | 7,971.30 |
| (-) Net Debt | -283.69 | -283.69 |
| Equity Value | 7,583.21 | 8,254.98 |
| (/) Shares Out | 26.51 | 26.51 |
| Fair Value | $286.09 | $311.43 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 52.47% | 52.47% |
| Buy Price | $135.98 | $148.02 |
| Current Price | $92.51 | $92.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 46.99% | 60.01% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.85 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.43 | ||
| PV UFCF | 390.61 | 393.68 | 380.32 | 366.68 | 352.48 | 337.83 | 322.82 | 307.56 | 292.15 | 276.67 | Raw: 6,307.73 4,207.09 |
Raw: 8,009.43 3,302.27 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,090.85 | 6,723.06 |
| (-) Net Debt | -283.69 | -283.69 |
| Equity Value | 6,374.54 | 7,006.75 |
| (/) Shares Out | 26.51 | 26.51 |
| Fair Value | $240.49 | $264.34 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 52.47% | 52.47% |
| Buy Price | $114.30 | $125.64 |
| Current Price | $92.51 | $92.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 23.56% | 35.81% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 391.33 | 398.77 | 392.43 | 385.35 | 377.29 | 368.29 | 358.44 | 347.82 | 336.50 | 324.57 | Raw: 10,086.53 7,267.24 |
Raw: 12,807.69 6,251.87 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,212.40 | 9,932.66 |
| (-) Net Debt | -283.69 | -283.69 |
| Equity Value | 9,496.09 | 10,216.35 |
| (/) Shares Out | 26.51 | 26.51 |
| Fair Value | $358.25 | $385.42 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 52.47% | 52.47% |
| Buy Price | $170.28 | $183.19 |
| Current Price | $92.51 | $92.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 84.06% | 98.02% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 4,625.24 | 9,485.92 | 19,454.70 | 39,899.70 | 81,830.43 | 167,826.31 | 344,195.53 | 705,911.76 | 1,447,756.78 | 2,969,209.19 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 105.09% | 105.09% | 105.09% | 105.09% | 105.09% | 105.09% | 105.09% | 105.09% | 105.09% | 105.09% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.46 | 0.95 | 1.95 | 3.99 | 8.18 | 16.78 | 34.42 | 70.59 | 144.78 | 296.92 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.44 | 0.82 | 1.54 | 2.89 | 5.43 | 10.21 | 19.19 | 36.07 | 67.81 | 127.48 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-03-31 | $31.31 | 7.69% | $-68.18 | -317.76% |
| 2019 | 2019-03-31 | $45.40 | 9.58% | $20.30 | -55.29% |
| 2018 | 2018-03-31 | $38.85 | 9.81% | $60.82 | 56.55% |
| 2017 | 2017-03-31 | $33.76 | 7.10% | $15.14 | -55.16% |
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $20.13 | 5.56% | $-3.29 | -116.32% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $21.73 | 7.87% | $-1.23 | -105.65% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $13.94 | 7.50% | $-14.52 | -204.17% |
| 2013 | 2013-03-31 | $11.39 | 10.71% | $17.80 | 56.28% |
| 2012 | 2012-03-31 | $7.99 | 10.60% | $-21.47 | -368.69% |
| 2011 | 2011-03-31 | $6.65 | 11.67% | $-15.80 | -337.54% |
| 2010 | 2010-03-31 | $4.39 | 10.47% | $-33.13 | -854.70% |
| 2009 | 2009-03-31 | $2.92 | 11.34% | $13.00 | 345.08% |
| 2008 | 2008-03-31 | $2.30 | 10.07% | $-1.08 | -146.79% |
| 2007 | 2007-03-31 | $2.65 | 2.14% | $-34.54 | -1,403.53% |
| 2006 | 2006-03-31 | $3.56 | -0.42% | $-35.55 | -1,098.68% |
| 2005 | 2005-03-31 | $2.92 | 0.05% | $4.00 | 36.85% |
| 2004 | 2004-03-31 | $3.24 | 8.29% | $-3.52 | -208.67% |
| 2003 | 2003-03-31 | $1.80 | 25.35% | $21.51 | 1,095.06% |
| 2002 | 2002-03-31 | $2.31 | 31.30% | $9.97 | 331.79% |
| 2001 | 2001-03-31 | $2.30 | 34.83% | $2.59 | 12.49% |
| 2000 | 2000-03-31 | $8.28 | 19.88% | $10.13 | 22.39% |
| 1999 | 1999-03-31 | $2.06 | -0.08% | $-9.88 | -579.53% |
| 1998 | 1998-03-31 | $3.44 | -4.64% | $-0.91 | -126.45% |
| 1997 | 1997-03-31 | $3.00 | 1.46% | $-18.87 | -728.99% |
| 1996 | 1996-03-31 | $2.38 | 18.76% | $-16.36 | -787.47% |
| $207.16 - $229.05 | 6 |
| $229.05 - $250.93 | 38 |
| $250.93 - $272.82 | 108 |
| $272.82 - $294.71 | 196 |
| $294.71 - $316.59 | 185 |
| $316.59 - $338.48 | 167 |
| $338.48 - $360.36 | 113 |
| $360.36 - $382.25 | 67 |
| $382.25 - $404.14 | 42 |
| $404.14 - $426.02 | 31 |
| $426.02 - $447.91 | 22 |
| $447.91 - $469.80 | 8 |
| $469.80 - $491.68 | 6 |
| $491.68 - $513.57 | 2 |
| $513.57 - $535.45 | 7 |
| $535.45 - $557.34 | 0 |
| $557.34 - $579.23 | 0 |
| $579.23 - $601.11 | 1 |
| $601.11 - $623.00 | 0 |
| $623.00 - $644.88 | 1 |