| Current Price | $220.87 |
| 5Y Range | 86.00 – 128.16 |
| 5Y Selected | 107.08 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 60.91% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $41.86 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.05% |
| 10Y Range | 101.85 – 150.33 |
| 10Y Selected | 126.09 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 60.91% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $49.29 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.68% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.5859 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8881 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2226 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7587 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.3332 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8017 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3547 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2659 |
| Safety Score | 0.3909 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 7.67% | 7.26% | 6.85% | 6.45% | 6.04% | 5.63% | 5.22% | 4.82% | 4.41% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 639.24 | 685.66 | 732.65 | 779.88 | 826.97 | 873.53 | 919.15 | 963.41 | 1,005.87 | 1,046.11 |
| EBITDA | 82.10 | 88.06 | 94.10 | 100.16 | 106.21 | 112.19 | 118.05 | 123.74 | 129.19 | 134.36 |
| D&A | -19.64 | -21.07 | -22.51 | -23.96 | -25.41 | -26.84 | -28.24 | -29.60 | -30.91 | -32.14 |
| EBIT | 62.46 | 67.00 | 71.59 | 76.20 | 80.80 | 85.35 | 89.81 | 94.13 | 98.28 | 102.21 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -17.00 | -18.23 | -19.48 | -20.74 | -21.99 | -23.23 | -24.44 | -25.62 | -26.75 | -27.82 |
| NOPAT | 45.46 | 48.76 | 52.11 | 55.46 | 58.81 | 62.13 | 65.37 | 68.52 | 71.54 | 74.40 |
| Capital Expenditures | -29.08 | -31.19 | -33.33 | -35.48 | -37.62 | -39.74 | -41.81 | -43.83 | -45.76 | -47.59 |
| NWC Investment | -12.72 | -12.97 | -13.13 | -13.19 | -13.16 | -13.01 | -12.75 | -12.37 | -11.86 | -11.24 |
| (+) D&A | 19.64 | 21.07 | 22.51 | 23.96 | 25.41 | 26.84 | 28.24 | 29.60 | 30.91 | 32.14 |
| Free Cash Flow | 23.30 | 25.67 | 28.16 | 30.76 | 33.45 | 36.22 | 39.05 | 41.93 | 44.82 | 47.71 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 4,950,750.00 | 4,950,750.00 | 4,950,750.00 | 4,950,750.00 | 4,950,750.00 | 4,950,750.00 | 4,950,750.00 | 4,950,750.00 | 4,950,750.00 | 4,950,750.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 23.10 | 24.66 | 24.80 | 24.83 | 24.75 | 24.56 | 24.28 | 23.89 | 23.41 | 22.84 | Raw: 514.95 364.76 |
Raw: 734.58 336.67 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 486.90 | 577.78 |
| (-) Net Debt | -19.70 | -19.70 |
| Equity Value | 506.60 | 597.48 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4.95 | 4.95 |
| Fair Value | $102.33 | $120.69 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 60.91% | 60.91% |
| Buy Price | $40.00 | $47.18 |
| Current Price | $220.87 | $220.87 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.89% | -78.64% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 23.08 | 24.56 | 24.47 | 24.27 | 23.98 | 23.58 | 23.10 | 22.52 | 21.87 | 21.14 | Raw: 418.17 285.70 |
Raw: 596.52 251.93 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 406.06 | 484.51 |
| (-) Net Debt | -19.70 | -19.70 |
| Equity Value | 425.76 | 504.21 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4.95 | 4.95 |
| Fair Value | $86.00 | $101.85 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 60.91% | 60.91% |
| Buy Price | $33.62 | $39.81 |
| Current Price | $220.87 | $220.87 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.78% | -81.98% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 23.12 | 24.77 | 25.13 | 25.39 | 25.55 | 25.59 | 25.53 | 25.35 | 25.07 | 24.69 | Raw: 668.07 490.80 |
Raw: 953.00 474.34 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 614.76 | 724.54 |
| (-) Net Debt | -19.70 | -19.70 |
| Equity Value | 634.47 | 744.25 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4.95 | 4.95 |
| Fair Value | $128.16 | $150.33 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 60.91% | 60.91% |
| Buy Price | $50.10 | $58.76 |
| Current Price | $220.87 | $220.87 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.32% | -73.39% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,443.78 | 3,142.41 | 6,839.50 | 14,886.26 | 32,400.16 | 70,519.38 | 153,486.40 | 334,065.26 | 727,097.60 | 1,582,537.87 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 117.65% | 117.65% | 117.65% | 117.65% | 117.65% | 117.65% | 117.65% | 117.65% | 117.65% | 117.65% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.14 | 0.31 | 0.68 | 1.49 | 3.24 | 7.05 | 15.35 | 33.41 | 72.71 | 158.25 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.13 | 0.25 | 0.51 | 1.01 | 2.01 | 4.02 | 8.02 | 15.99 | 31.90 | 63.65 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $60.35 | 7.44% | $-14.62 | -124.23% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $54.25 | 11.73% | $67.93 | 25.22% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $71.05 | 10.46% | $105.75 | 48.84% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $58.12 | 8.29% | $2.31 | -96.03% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $42.10 | 9.25% | $39.32 | -6.61% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $54.63 | 8.26% | $29.60 | -45.83% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $73.16 | 4.06% | $3.55 | -95.15% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $59.42 | -1.64% | $80.53 | 35.52% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $59.66 | -6.14% | $-3.75 | -106.28% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $58.52 | -5.27% | $39.19 | -33.03% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $43.80 | 1.70% | $60.03 | 37.05% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $46.04 | 11.28% | $40.69 | -11.61% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $59.97 | 14.54% | $28.72 | -52.12% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $35.25 | 12.98% | $25.11 | -28.76% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $42.79 | 10.61% | $63.10 | 47.47% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $28.98 | 9.05% | $30.39 | 4.88% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $30.84 | 12.11% | $77.00 | 149.66% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $16.67 | 13.45% | $64.53 | 287.11% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $19.00 | 8.46% | $39.91 | 110.05% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $13.50 | 1.88% | $23.50 | 74.10% |
| $82.43 - $94.63 | 43 |
| $94.63 - $106.83 | 169 |
| $106.83 - $119.02 | 242 |
| $119.02 - $131.22 | 226 |
| $131.22 - $143.42 | 161 |
| $143.42 - $155.62 | 72 |
| $155.62 - $167.82 | 47 |
| $167.82 - $180.02 | 20 |
| $180.02 - $192.22 | 7 |
| $192.22 - $204.42 | 5 |
| $204.42 - $216.62 | 5 |
| $216.62 - $228.82 | 1 |
| $228.82 - $241.02 | 0 |
| $241.02 - $253.22 | 0 |
| $253.22 - $265.42 | 0 |
| $265.42 - $277.62 | 0 |
| $277.62 - $289.82 | 1 |
| $289.82 - $302.02 | 0 |
| $302.02 - $314.22 | 0 |
| $314.22 - $326.42 | 1 |