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Preformed Line Products Company

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$220.87
5Y Range86.00 – 128.16
5Y Selected107.08
(-) Safety Margin60.91%
5Y Buy Price$41.86
Upside (to Buy Price)-81.05%
10Y Range101.85 – 150.33
10Y Selected126.09
(-) Safety Margin60.91%
10Y Buy Price$49.29
Upside (to Buy Price)-77.68%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.5859
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8881
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.2226
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.7587
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.3332
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.8017
FCF R2 (5Y)0.3547
FCF R2 (10Y)0.2659
Safety Score0.3909

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth7.67%7.26%6.85%6.45%6.04%5.63%5.22%4.82%4.41%4.00%
Revenue639.24685.66732.65779.88826.97873.53919.15963.411,005.871,046.11
EBITDA82.1088.0694.10100.16106.21112.19118.05123.74129.19134.36
D&A-19.64-21.07-22.51-23.96-25.41-26.84-28.24-29.60-30.91-32.14
EBIT62.4667.0071.5976.2080.8085.3589.8194.1398.28102.21
Pro forma Taxes-17.00-18.23-19.48-20.74-21.99-23.23-24.44-25.62-26.75-27.82
NOPAT45.4648.7652.1155.4658.8162.1365.3768.5271.5474.40
Capital Expenditures-29.08-31.19-33.33-35.48-37.62-39.74-41.81-43.83-45.76-47.59
NWC Investment-12.72-12.97-13.13-13.19-13.16-13.01-12.75-12.37-11.86-11.24
(+) D&A19.6421.0722.5123.9625.4126.8428.2429.6030.9132.14
Free Cash Flow23.3025.6728.1630.7633.4536.2239.0541.9344.8247.71
Diluted Shares Outstanding4,950,750.004,950,750.004,950,750.004,950,750.004,950,750.004,950,750.004,950,750.004,950,750.004,950,750.004,950,750.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.44%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF23.1024.6624.8024.8324.7524.5624.2823.8923.4122.84
Raw: 514.95
364.76
Raw: 734.58
336.67

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value486.90577.78
(-) Net Debt-19.70-19.70
Equity Value506.60597.48
(/) Shares Out4.954.95
Fair Value$102.33$120.69
(-) Safety Margin60.91%60.91%
Buy Price$40.00$47.18
Current Price$220.87$220.87
Upside (to Buy Price)-81.89%-78.64%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.94%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF23.0824.5624.4724.2723.9823.5823.1022.5221.8721.14
Raw: 418.17
285.70
Raw: 596.52
251.93

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value406.06484.51
(-) Net Debt-19.70-19.70
Equity Value425.76504.21
(/) Shares Out4.954.95
Fair Value$86.00$101.85
(-) Safety Margin60.91%60.91%
Buy Price$33.62$39.81
Current Price$220.87$220.87
Upside (to Buy Price)-84.78%-81.98%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.94%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF23.1224.7725.1325.3925.5525.5925.5325.3525.0724.69
Raw: 668.07
490.80
Raw: 953.00
474.34

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value614.76724.54
(-) Net Debt-19.70-19.70
Equity Value634.47744.25
(/) Shares Out4.954.95
Fair Value$128.16$150.33
(-) Safety Margin60.91%60.91%
Buy Price$50.10$58.76
Current Price$220.87$220.87
Upside (to Buy Price)-77.32%-73.39%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$220.87
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH117.65%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue1,443.783,142.416,839.5014,886.2632,400.1670,519.38153,486.40334,065.26727,097.601,582,537.87
Constant Implied Growth117.65%117.65%117.65%117.65%117.65%117.65%117.65%117.65%117.65%117.65%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.140.310.681.493.247.0515.3533.4172.71158.25
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.130.250.511.012.014.028.0215.9931.9063.65

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$60.357.44%$-14.62-124.23%
20182018-12-31$54.2511.73%$67.9325.22%
20172017-12-31$71.0510.46%$105.7548.84%
20162016-12-31$58.128.29%$2.31-96.03%
20152015-12-31$42.109.25%$39.32-6.61%
20142014-12-31$54.638.26%$29.60-45.83%
20132013-12-31$73.164.06%$3.55-95.15%
20122012-12-31$59.42-1.64%$80.5335.52%
20112011-12-31$59.66-6.14%$-3.75-106.28%
20102010-12-31$58.52-5.27%$39.19-33.03%
20092009-12-31$43.801.70%$60.0337.05%
20082008-12-31$46.0411.28%$40.69-11.61%
20072007-12-31$59.9714.54%$28.72-52.12%
20062006-12-31$35.2512.98%$25.11-28.76%
20052005-12-31$42.7910.61%$63.1047.47%
20042004-12-31$28.989.05%$30.394.88%
20032003-12-31$30.8412.11%$77.00149.66%
20022002-12-31$16.6713.45%$64.53287.11%
20012001-12-31$19.008.46%$39.91110.05%
20002000-12-31$13.501.88%$23.5074.10%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$124.75
Median
$121.39
10th Percentile
$100.72
90th Percentile
$152.91

Fair Value Distribution

$82.43 - $94.63
43
$94.63 - $106.83
169
$106.83 - $119.02
242
$119.02 - $131.22
226
$131.22 - $143.42
161
$143.42 - $155.62
72
$155.62 - $167.82
47
$167.82 - $180.02
20
$180.02 - $192.22
7
$192.22 - $204.42
5
$204.42 - $216.62
5
$216.62 - $228.82
1
$228.82 - $241.02
0
$241.02 - $253.22
0
$253.22 - $265.42
0
$265.42 - $277.62
0
$277.62 - $289.82
1
$289.82 - $302.02
0
$302.02 - $314.22
0
$314.22 - $326.42
1