Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $22.66 |
| 5Y Range | 3.36 – 26.11 |
| 5Y Selected | 14.74 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.61% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $2.12 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -90.64% |
| 10Y Range | 4.37 – 25.02 |
| 10Y Selected | 14.70 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.61% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $2.11 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -90.67% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9347 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.1011 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5807 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3013 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9074 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0582 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0000 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1623 |
| Safety Score | 0.1439 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 2.42% | 2.59% | 2.77% | 2.94% | 3.12% | 3.30% | 3.47% | 3.65% | 3.82% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,696.23 | 1,740.21 | 1,788.39 | 1,841.06 | 1,898.51 | 1,961.09 | 2,029.19 | 2,103.22 | 2,183.65 | 2,270.99 |
| EBITDA | 121.43 | 124.57 | 128.02 | 131.79 | 135.91 | 140.39 | 145.26 | 150.56 | 156.32 | 162.57 |
| D&A | -37.27 | -38.24 | -39.30 | -40.45 | -41.72 | -43.09 | -44.59 | -46.21 | -47.98 | -49.90 |
| EBIT | 84.15 | 86.34 | 88.73 | 91.34 | 94.19 | 97.29 | 100.67 | 104.35 | 108.34 | 112.67 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -20.09 | -20.61 | -21.18 | -21.80 | -22.49 | -23.23 | -24.03 | -24.91 | -25.86 | -26.90 |
| NOPAT | 64.06 | 65.73 | 67.55 | 69.53 | 71.70 | 74.07 | 76.64 | 79.44 | 82.47 | 85.77 |
| Capital Expenditures | -36.22 | -37.16 | -38.19 | -39.31 | -40.54 | -41.87 | -43.33 | -44.91 | -46.63 | -48.49 |
| NWC Investment | -11.72 | -12.88 | -14.11 | -15.42 | -16.82 | -18.32 | -19.93 | -21.67 | -23.55 | -25.57 |
| (+) D&A | 37.27 | 38.24 | 39.30 | 40.45 | 41.72 | 43.09 | 44.59 | 46.21 | 47.98 | 49.90 |
| Free Cash Flow | 53.40 | 53.93 | 54.55 | 55.26 | 56.06 | 56.96 | 57.96 | 59.07 | 60.28 | 61.61 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 13,750,000.00 | 13,750,000.00 | 13,750,000.00 | 13,750,000.00 | 13,750,000.00 | 13,750,000.00 | 13,750,000.00 | 13,750,000.00 | 13,750,000.00 | 13,750,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 52.94 | 51.81 | 48.04 | 44.60 | 41.48 | 38.63 | 36.03 | 33.66 | 31.48 | 29.49 | Raw: 811.83 575.06 |
Raw: 892.17 408.89 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 813.93 | 817.06 |
| (-) Net Debt | 644.53 | 644.53 |
| Equity Value | 169.40 | 172.53 |
| (/) Shares Out | 13.75 | 13.75 |
| Fair Value | $12.32 | $12.55 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.61% | 85.61% |
| Buy Price | $1.77 | $1.81 |
| Current Price | $22.66 | $22.66 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.18% | -92.03% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 52.89 | 51.60 | 47.40 | 43.61 | 40.19 | 37.09 | 34.28 | 31.73 | 29.41 | 27.30 | Raw: 666.08 455.07 |
Raw: 732.00 309.15 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 690.76 | 704.65 |
| (-) Net Debt | 644.53 | 644.53 |
| Equity Value | 46.24 | 60.13 |
| (/) Shares Out | 13.75 | 13.75 |
| Fair Value | $3.36 | $4.37 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.61% | 85.61% |
| Buy Price | $0.48 | $0.63 |
| Current Price | $22.66 | $22.66 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -97.86% | -97.22% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 52.98 | 52.03 | 48.69 | 45.63 | 42.82 | 40.25 | 37.89 | 35.72 | 33.72 | 31.88 | Raw: 1,036.40 761.39 |
Raw: 1,138.96 566.89 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,003.55 | 988.51 |
| (-) Net Debt | 644.53 | 644.53 |
| Equity Value | 359.02 | 343.99 |
| (/) Shares Out | 13.75 | 13.75 |
| Fair Value | $26.11 | $25.02 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.61% | 85.61% |
| Buy Price | $3.76 | $3.60 |
| Current Price | $22.66 | $22.66 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.42% | -84.11% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 3,135.43 | 6,173.26 | 12,154.36 | 23,930.37 | 47,115.84 | 92,765.06 | 182,642.54 | 359,599.79 | 708,005.98 | 1,393,973.20 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 96.89% | 96.89% | 96.89% | 96.89% | 96.89% | 96.89% | 96.89% | 96.89% | 96.89% | 96.89% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.31 | 0.62 | 1.22 | 2.39 | 4.71 | 9.28 | 18.26 | 35.96 | 70.80 | 139.40 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.29 | 0.50 | 0.90 | 1.62 | 2.93 | 5.29 | 9.54 | 17.21 | 31.07 | 56.06 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $33.65 | 8.51% | $-4.82 | -114.34% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $30.69 | 2.87% | $-28.08 | -191.49% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $45.95 | -4.40% | $-17.90 | -138.96% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $42.60 | -5.62% | $9.31 | -78.14% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $36.78 | -0.66% | $-22.01 | -159.83% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $63.03 | 4.45% | $10.89 | -82.73% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $52.40 | 3.08% | $16.12 | -69.23% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $21.31 | 1.95% | $8.08 | -62.11% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $17.84 | 3.79% | $12.29 | -31.12% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $20.91 | 9.06% | $99.14 | 374.11% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $5.65 | 11.12% | $56.16 | 893.97% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $6.17 | 11.97% | $-52.72 | -954.46% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $25.10 | 2.26% | $-16.77 | -166.82% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $16.12 | -5.91% | $-47.22 | -392.94% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $14.10 | -9.93% | $-16.85 | -219.50% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $25.81 | -5.69% | $-42.30 | -263.91% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $7.40 | 6.04% | $-24.64 | -433.00% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $4.16 | 11.93% | $3.01 | -27.72% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $3.18 | 12.74% | $-6.75 | -312.14% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $4.88 | 8.98% | $-35.27 | -822.81% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $9.88 | 0.70% | $-159.92 | -1,718.62% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $15.13 | -4.09% | $-89.46 | -691.26% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $18.25 | 2.81% | $-57.61 | -415.67% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $12.88 | 11.44% | $-26.34 | -304.51% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $16.13 | 20.35% | $-71.51 | -543.31% |
| $-3.93 - $0.45 | 26 |
| $0.45 - $4.84 | 104 |
| $4.84 - $9.22 | 163 |
| $9.22 - $13.61 | 223 |
| $13.61 - $17.99 | 197 |
| $17.99 - $22.38 | 137 |
| $22.38 - $26.76 | 62 |
| $26.76 - $31.15 | 40 |
| $31.15 - $35.53 | 20 |
| $35.53 - $39.92 | 8 |
| $39.92 - $44.30 | 12 |
| $44.30 - $48.69 | 1 |
| $48.69 - $53.08 | 3 |
| $53.08 - $57.46 | 1 |
| $57.46 - $61.85 | 0 |
| $61.85 - $66.23 | 2 |
| $66.23 - $70.62 | 0 |
| $70.62 - $75.00 | 0 |
| $75.00 - $79.39 | 0 |
| $79.39 - $83.77 | 1 |