Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $171.18 |
| 5Y Range | 115.24 – 174.89 |
| 5Y Selected | 145.06 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 48.91% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $74.11 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -56.70% |
| 10Y Range | 129.09 – 191.50 |
| 10Y Selected | 160.29 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 48.91% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $81.89 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -52.16% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6492 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9238 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0049 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7351 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0008 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8223 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1755 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.6121 |
| Safety Score | 0.5109 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.14% | 7.68% | 7.22% | 6.76% | 6.30% | 5.84% | 5.38% | 4.92% | 4.46% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,614.77 | 1,738.82 | 1,864.41 | 1,990.48 | 2,115.91 | 2,239.51 | 2,360.01 | 2,476.14 | 2,586.59 | 2,690.05 |
| EBITDA | 422.24 | 454.67 | 487.51 | 520.48 | 553.28 | 585.59 | 617.11 | 647.47 | 676.35 | 703.40 |
| D&A | -48.44 | -52.16 | -55.93 | -59.71 | -63.47 | -67.18 | -70.79 | -74.28 | -77.59 | -80.69 |
| EBIT | 373.80 | 402.52 | 431.59 | 460.77 | 489.81 | 518.42 | 546.31 | 573.20 | 598.76 | 622.71 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -68.60 | -73.87 | -79.20 | -84.56 | -89.89 | -95.14 | -100.26 | -105.19 | -109.88 | -114.28 |
| NOPAT | 305.20 | 328.65 | 352.38 | 376.21 | 399.92 | 423.28 | 446.05 | 468.00 | 488.88 | 508.43 |
| Capital Expenditures | -17.66 | -19.02 | -20.39 | -21.77 | -23.14 | -24.49 | -25.81 | -27.08 | -28.29 | -29.42 |
| NWC Investment | -20.67 | -21.09 | -21.35 | -21.43 | -21.32 | -21.01 | -20.49 | -19.74 | -18.78 | -17.59 |
| (+) D&A | 48.44 | 52.16 | 55.93 | 59.71 | 63.47 | 67.18 | 70.79 | 74.28 | 77.59 | 80.69 |
| Free Cash Flow | 315.31 | 340.70 | 366.57 | 392.72 | 418.92 | 444.95 | 470.55 | 495.46 | 519.40 | 542.12 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 44,072,526.50 | 44,072,526.50 | 44,072,526.50 | 44,072,526.50 | 44,072,526.50 | 44,072,526.50 | 44,072,526.50 | 44,072,526.50 | 44,072,526.50 | 44,072,526.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 312.57 | 327.32 | 322.81 | 316.99 | 309.95 | 301.75 | 292.50 | 282.30 | 271.26 | 259.51 | Raw: 6,468.20 4,581.72 |
Raw: 8,370.32 3,836.22 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,171.36 | 6,833.19 |
| (-) Net Debt | 74.86 | 74.86 |
| Equity Value | 6,096.51 | 6,758.33 |
| (/) Shares Out | 44.07 | 44.07 |
| Fair Value | $138.33 | $153.35 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 48.91% | 48.91% |
| Buy Price | $70.67 | $78.34 |
| Current Price | $171.18 | $171.18 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -58.71% | -54.23% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 312.29 | 325.95 | 318.53 | 309.96 | 300.31 | 289.72 | 278.28 | 266.14 | 253.41 | 240.24 | Raw: 5,249.95 3,586.81 |
Raw: 6,793.82 2,869.26 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,153.86 | 5,764.10 |
| (-) Net Debt | 74.86 | 74.86 |
| Equity Value | 5,079.00 | 5,689.24 |
| (/) Shares Out | 44.07 | 44.07 |
| Fair Value | $115.24 | $129.09 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 48.91% | 48.91% |
| Buy Price | $58.88 | $65.95 |
| Current Price | $171.18 | $171.18 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -65.61% | -61.47% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 312.86 | 328.71 | 327.18 | 324.26 | 319.98 | 314.40 | 307.58 | 299.60 | 290.55 | 280.54 | Raw: 8,398.02 6,169.63 |
Raw: 10,867.64 5,409.15 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,782.61 | 8,514.81 |
| (-) Net Debt | 74.86 | 74.86 |
| Equity Value | 7,707.76 | 8,439.96 |
| (/) Shares Out | 44.07 | 44.07 |
| Fair Value | $174.89 | $191.50 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 48.91% | 48.91% |
| Buy Price | $89.35 | $97.84 |
| Current Price | $171.18 | $171.18 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -47.80% | -42.84% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 4,004.96 | 9,687.05 | 23,430.66 | 56,673.19 | 137,078.98 | 331,561.46 | 801,968.32 | 1,939,770.66 | 4,691,843.97 | 11,348,454.87 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 141.88% | 141.88% | 141.88% | 141.88% | 141.88% | 141.88% | 141.88% | 141.88% | 141.88% | 141.88% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.40 | 0.97 | 2.34 | 5.67 | 13.71 | 33.16 | 80.20 | 193.98 | 469.18 | 1,134.85 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.37 | 0.78 | 1.73 | 3.84 | 8.52 | 18.89 | 41.88 | 92.86 | 205.87 | 456.43 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $45.13 | 7.62% | $176.89 | 291.97% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $38.76 | 7.98% | $115.83 | 198.83% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $45.60 | 11.51% | $151.37 | 231.94% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $30.88 | 12.95% | $156.26 | 406.01% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $28.29 | 10.28% | $102.15 | 261.09% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $29.16 | 5.63% | $55.64 | 90.81% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $29.16 | 5.19% | $54.35 | 86.38% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $29.16 | 5.63% | $29.57 | 1.40% |
| $103.78 - $115.12 | 11 |
| $115.12 - $126.46 | 71 |
| $126.46 - $137.81 | 144 |
| $137.81 - $149.15 | 222 |
| $149.15 - $160.49 | 183 |
| $160.49 - $171.83 | 118 |
| $171.83 - $183.18 | 116 |
| $183.18 - $194.52 | 45 |
| $194.52 - $205.86 | 28 |
| $205.86 - $217.21 | 27 |
| $217.21 - $228.55 | 13 |
| $228.55 - $239.89 | 10 |
| $239.89 - $251.24 | 4 |
| $251.24 - $262.58 | 4 |
| $262.58 - $273.92 | 2 |
| $273.92 - $285.27 | 0 |
| $285.27 - $296.61 | 0 |
| $296.61 - $307.95 | 0 |
| $307.95 - $319.30 | 1 |
| $319.30 - $330.64 | 1 |