Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $14.40 |
| 5Y Range | 7.79 – 28.60 |
| 5Y Selected | 18.20 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.08% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $4.97 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -65.49% |
| 10Y Range | 28.15 – 84.72 |
| 10Y Selected | 56.43 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.08% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $15.41 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 7.03% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.3344 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8586 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0126 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4492 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1907 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6710 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.5452 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0024 |
| Safety Score | 0.2731 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 9.92% | 9.26% | 8.60% | 7.94% | 7.29% | 6.63% | 5.97% | 5.31% | 4.66% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 488.57 | 533.80 | 579.72 | 625.77 | 671.37 | 715.88 | 758.63 | 798.95 | 836.16 | 869.61 |
| EBITDA | 29.61 | 32.35 | 35.13 | 37.92 | 40.69 | 43.38 | 45.97 | 48.42 | 50.67 | 52.70 |
| D&A | -8.64 | -9.44 | -10.25 | -11.06 | -11.87 | -12.65 | -13.41 | -14.12 | -14.78 | -15.37 |
| EBIT | 20.97 | 22.91 | 24.88 | 26.86 | 28.82 | 30.73 | 32.57 | 34.30 | 35.89 | 37.33 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -5.86 | -6.40 | -6.95 | -7.50 | -8.05 | -8.58 | -9.10 | -9.58 | -10.03 | -10.43 |
| NOPAT | 15.11 | 16.51 | 17.93 | 19.36 | 20.77 | 22.14 | 23.47 | 24.71 | 25.87 | 26.90 |
| Capital Expenditures | -9.31 | -10.17 | -11.05 | -11.92 | -12.79 | -13.64 | -14.46 | -15.22 | -15.93 | -16.57 |
| NWC Investment | -15.04 | -15.44 | -15.67 | -15.72 | -15.56 | -15.19 | -14.59 | -13.76 | -12.70 | -11.41 |
| (+) D&A | 8.64 | 9.44 | 10.25 | 11.06 | 11.87 | 12.65 | 13.41 | 14.12 | 14.78 | 15.37 |
| Free Cash Flow | -0.60 | 0.34 | 1.46 | 2.78 | 4.28 | 5.97 | 7.83 | 9.85 | 12.01 | 14.29 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 5,942,432.50 | 5,942,432.50 | 5,942,432.50 | 5,942,432.50 | 5,942,432.50 | 5,942,432.50 | 5,942,432.50 | 5,942,432.50 | 5,942,432.50 | 5,942,432.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | -0.60 | 0.33 | 1.34 | 2.38 | 3.45 | 4.52 | 5.58 | 6.59 | 7.55 | 8.44 | Raw: 130.41 101.93 |
Raw: 435.20 249.22 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 108.83 | 288.81 |
| (-) Net Debt | 28.16 | 28.16 |
| Equity Value | 80.68 | 260.66 |
| (/) Shares Out | 5.94 | 5.94 |
| Fair Value | $13.58 | $43.86 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.08% | 76.08% |
| Buy Price | $3.25 | $10.49 |
| Current Price | $14.40 | $14.40 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.45% | -27.14% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | -0.60 | 0.33 | 1.32 | 2.33 | 3.34 | 4.34 | 5.30 | 6.21 | 7.04 | 7.80 | Raw: 89.91 67.72 |
Raw: 300.04 158.01 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 74.44 | 195.42 |
| (-) Net Debt | 28.16 | 28.16 |
| Equity Value | 46.28 | 167.26 |
| (/) Shares Out | 5.94 | 5.94 |
| Fair Value | $7.79 | $28.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.08% | 76.08% |
| Buy Price | $1.86 | $6.73 |
| Current Price | $14.40 | $14.40 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -87.06% | -53.25% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | -0.60 | 0.33 | 1.36 | 2.44 | 3.57 | 4.72 | 5.87 | 7.01 | 8.10 | 9.14 | Raw: 235.44 191.04 |
Raw: 785.73 489.68 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 198.13 | 531.61 |
| (-) Net Debt | 28.16 | 28.16 |
| Equity Value | 169.98 | 503.46 |
| (/) Shares Out | 5.94 | 5.94 |
| Fair Value | $28.60 | $84.72 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.08% | 76.08% |
| Buy Price | $6.84 | $20.27 |
| Current Price | $14.40 | $14.40 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -52.49% | 40.73% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 748.80 | 1,254.50 | 2,101.73 | 3,521.15 | 5,899.17 | 9,883.20 | 16,557.86 | 27,740.27 | 46,474.77 | 77,861.69 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 67.54% | 67.54% | 67.54% | 67.54% | 67.54% | 67.54% | 67.54% | 67.54% | 67.54% | 67.54% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 0.35 | 0.59 | 0.99 | 1.66 | 2.77 | 4.65 | 7.79 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.27 | 0.42 | 0.66 | 1.04 | 1.64 | 2.58 | 4.06 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $13.30 | 8.39% | $9.42 | -29.16% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $22.50 | 13.46% | $77.64 | 245.06% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $15.99 | 15.56% | $12.66 | -20.84% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $8.11 | 11.64% | $-14.32 | -276.58% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $8.05 | 23.50% | $19.43 | 141.39% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $5.21 | 22.25% | $-100.99 | -2,038.32% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $9.72 | 13.71% | $70.72 | 627.52% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $8.80 | 1.90% | $4.72 | -46.34% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $6.50 | -6.14% | $-6.24 | -195.96% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $10.82 | -2.97% | $-2.97 | -127.49% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $15.00 | 7.64% | $-66.98 | -546.50% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $13.50 | 8.74% | $58.55 | 333.72% |
| $2.80 - $36.63 | 320 |
| $36.63 - $70.46 | 520 |
| $70.46 - $104.30 | 109 |
| $104.30 - $138.13 | 33 |
| $138.13 - $171.96 | 13 |
| $171.96 - $205.79 | 2 |
| $205.79 - $239.63 | 0 |
| $239.63 - $273.46 | 1 |
| $273.46 - $307.29 | 0 |
| $307.29 - $341.13 | 0 |
| $341.13 - $374.96 | 0 |
| $374.96 - $408.79 | 0 |
| $408.79 - $442.63 | 1 |
| $442.63 - $476.46 | 0 |
| $476.46 - $510.29 | 0 |
| $510.29 - $544.13 | 0 |
| $544.13 - $577.96 | 0 |
| $577.96 - $611.79 | 0 |
| $611.79 - $645.62 | 0 |
| $645.62 - $679.46 | 1 |